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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 7-away/3-away recube action from the bar

7-away/3-away recube action from the bar

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 7-away/3-away recube action from the bar
Date: Wed, 30 Nov 2022 07:47:00 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 30 Nov 2022 12:47 UTC

Note that O has already borne off two checkers.

XGID=---BBBBBB------A---b-AdafA:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:7:10

Score is X:0 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O X O O O | O
| | | O O O | O
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 32 X-O: 0-4/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 7-away/3-away recube action from the bar

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 7-away/3-away recube action from the bar
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by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 2 Dec 2022 13:47 UTC

XGID=---BBBBBB------A---b-AdafA:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:7:10

This is one of those scores where the trailer has a hair-trigger
recube, especially when it's still possible to win a gammon. I
could see that this would be a recube if O's two borne-off checkers
were still on (say) her 1pt, but with no gammon wins, I wasn't sure,
and I decided not to redouble to 4. But at this score, XG is going
to say it's a redouble whenever the following conditions are satisfied:

- You have a direct shot, and hitting it leaves you almost gin.
- Your chances of losing a gammon are high if you miss.

In particular, having some gammon winning chances is not required.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 41.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 58.88% (G:35.16% B:0.55%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 41.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 58.57% (G:41.07% B:0.22%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: -0.287 (-0.169)
Redouble/Take: -0.118
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+1.118)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (-0.289..-0.284)
Confidence Double: ± 0.003 (-0.121..-0.114)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

Subject	Author
7-away/3-away recube action from the bar	Timothy Chow
Rollout: 7-away/3-away recube action from the bar	Timothy Chow