XGID=--b-BCCCB--aa-b-a--bbbbAA-:0:0:1:65:4:0:1:5:10

X:You O:O
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X X |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| O O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 140 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 65

On Wednesday, November 30, 2022 at 10:44:00 AM UTC-5, ah...Clem wrote:
> XGID=--b-BCCCB--aa-b-a--bbbbAA-:0:0:1:65:4:0:1:5:10
>
> X:You O:O
> Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O O O O X X |
> | O | | O O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X | | X X |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> | O O X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 125 O: 140 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
> Cube: 1
> X to play 65

Crawford odd away is essentially dmp so yes, make the dmp play. (which should be wildly obvious)

Stick

On Wednesday, November 30, 2022 at 11:26:47 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Wednesday, November 30, 2022 at 10:44:00 AM UTC-5, ah...Clem wrote:
> > XGID=--b-BCCCB--aa-b-a--bbbbAA-:0:0:1:65:4:0:1:5:10
> >
> > X:You O:O
> > Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O O | | O O O O X X |
> > | O | | O O O O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | X | | X X |
> > | X X | | X X X O |
> > | O O X X | | X X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 125 O: 140 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 65
> Crawford odd away is essentially dmp so yes, make the dmp play. (which should be wildly obvious)

I posted a position once, which is a neat counterexample, but I can't find it.
In my Crawford position, I was 3A and XG was 1A.
Apparently the gammon-hungry play got so many more gammons and the DMP play was so slightly better,
that it was a significant error of mine to make the DMP play. This error was significant enough for XG to
colour code it as an error under the default settings.

Paul

On 11/30/2022 10:43 AM, ah...Clem wrote:
> XGID=--b-BCCCB--aa-b-a--bbbbAA-:0:0:1:65:4:0:1:5:10
>
> X:You O:O
> Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O O O O X X |
> | O | | O O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X | | X X |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> | O O X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 125 O: 140 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
> Cube: 1
> X to play 65

It's tempting to hit, but there's some danger that the remaining
straggler will get primed, so I would play 24/18 23/18.

---
Tim Chow

On 11/30/2022 6:26 PM, Stick Rice wrote:

> Crawford odd away is essentially dmp so yes, make the dmp play. (which should be wildly obvious)

I would expect most people who follow this group would know that
odd-away Crawford is basically DMP.

The question is do you "hit first and ask questions later?"

On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 3:03:21 PM UTC-5, ah...Clem wrote:
> On 11/30/2022 6:26 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
>
> > Crawford odd away is essentially dmp so yes, make the dmp play. (which should be wildly obvious)
> I would expect most people who follow this group would know that
> odd-away Crawford is basically DMP.
>
> The question is do you "hit first and ask questions later?"

Hit first and ask questions later is something even I've said probably referring to the early game but definitely not applicable at a dmp like score. The saying exists because a big part of the "hit + ask later" is gammons. We don't have that piece of the puzzle at dmp so the maxim is out the window.

I also don't think you can have it both ways. You can't expect most people to know odd away Crawford is dmp and not expect most people to think this play is a next.

Stick

On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 8:03:21 PM UTC, ah...Clem wrote:
> On 11/30/2022 6:26 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
>
> > Crawford odd away is essentially dmp so yes, make the dmp play. (which should be wildly obvious)
> I would expect most people who follow this group would know that
> odd-away Crawford is basically DMP.
....

I think that that expectation should at least be questioned.
Presumably, the point of a newsgroup on a subject is to act as a forum for everyone interested in a subject.
If we assume that people who often play backgammon (say once a month or more) classify as "interested",
then I feel very confident that only a tiny minority of such bg players know these issues.

It seems (to me) that you are suggesting that beginners are either excluded or excluding themselves, and it might
be worth asking why.

I would agree that the active posters here all seem to be intermediate or better. (I may be the weakest of the
active posters (but I'm not at all sure of this). If I'm not the weakest, I'm pretty confident that there's no active
poster significantly weaker than myself.)
But I don't see the lack of beginner contributions as being either inevitable or desirable.

Paul

On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 9:46:50 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 3:03:21 PM UTC-5, ah...Clem wrote:
> > On 11/30/2022 6:26 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> >
> > > Crawford odd away is essentially dmp so yes, make the dmp play. (which should be wildly obvious)
> > I would expect most people who follow this group would know that
> > odd-away Crawford is basically DMP.
> >
> > The question is do you "hit first and ask questions later?"
> Hit first and ask questions later is something even I've said probably referring to the early game but definitely not applicable at a dmp like score.. The saying exists because a big part of the "hit + ask later" is gammons. We don't have that piece of the puzzle at dmp so the maxim is out the window.
>
> I also don't think you can have it both ways. You can't expect most people to know odd away Crawford is dmp and not expect most people to think this play is a next.

I totally agree with Stick's feedback here. If gammons are not at issue, how would any non-beginner make any play that doesn't escape both checkers??
However, I wouldn't be too critical of ah...Clem on this account. Judging whether a problem is difficult for other readers is not always straightforward.
I can't see a non-beginner getting this wrong, though.

Paul

On Friday, December 2, 2022 at 10:15:52 AM UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 8:03:21 PM UTC, ah...Clem wrote:
> > On 11/30/2022 6:26 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> >
> > > Crawford odd away is essentially dmp so yes, make the dmp play. (which should be wildly obvious)
> > I would expect most people who follow this group would know that
> > odd-away Crawford is basically DMP.
> ...
>
> I think that that expectation should at least be questioned.
> Presumably, the point of a newsgroup on a subject is to act as a forum for everyone interested in a subject.
> If we assume that people who often play backgammon (say once a month or more) classify as "interested",
> then I feel very confident that only a tiny minority of such bg players know these issues.
>
> It seems (to me) that you are suggesting that beginners are either excluded or excluding themselves, and it might
> be worth asking why.
>
> I would agree that the active posters here all seem to be intermediate or better. (I may be the weakest of the
> active posters (but I'm not at all sure of this). If I'm not the weakest, I'm pretty confident that there's no active
> poster significantly weaker than myself.)
> But I don't see the lack of beginner contributions as being either inevitable or desirable.
>
> Paul

For clarity, when I say "active poster", I'm not measuring "activity" by frequency alone, but also considering how well-received
their posts are in this community. Someone who posts often, but whose posts are more often than not disliked, is not
considered (by me) to be an "active poster" in this context.

Paul

I don't know where I read or mis-read this piece of advice, but I've
been laboring under the impression that "At DMP, hit first and ask
questions later."

This is neither good advice, nor can I find anyone other than me saying
it, so I'll consign this aphorism to the bin.

AtS, gammon losses don't matter for the trailer, and matter very little
for the leader so it's basically DMP.

I hit here, which disproves the assertion upthread that anyone who knows
that odd away Crawford is basically DMP would see that it's a "next".

A rollout is probably unnecessary, but here it is anyway:

XGID=--b-BCCCB--aa-b-a--bbbbAA-:0:0:1:65:4:0:1:5:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X X |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| O O X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 140 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 23/18 eq:+0.498
Player: 75.10% (G:20.41% B:2.89%)
Opponent: 24.90% (G:3.73% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.493..+0.502) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 27 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 23/12* eq:+0.317 (-0.180)
Player: 66.26% (G:32.41% B:7.68%)
Opponent: 33.74% (G:6.36% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.311..+0.323) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

On 12/4/2022 5:31 PM, ah....Clem wrote:
> I don't know where I read or mis-read this piece of advice, but I've
> been laboring under the impression that "At DMP, hit first and ask
> questions later."
>
> This is neither good advice, nor can I find anyone other than me saying
> it, so I'll consign this aphorism to the bin.

It is true that there are many positions where it makes sense to hit
at DMP but where hitting loses too many gammons at a normal score.
So there's a grain of truth to your quoted aphorism. But I think it
was Walter Trice who made the distinction between "aggressive" versus
"bold" play---the idea being that "aggressive" play aims to win a
gammon, while "bold" play ignores gammon losses. With these
definitions, one favors bold play at DMP, but not aggressive play.
Hitting can be either bold or aggressive (or both), so at DMP, you
have to discern which type of hit you're facing.

---
Tim Chow

On Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 10:31:20 PM UTC, ah....Clem wrote:
> I don't know where I read or mis-read this piece of advice, but I've
> been laboring under the impression that "At DMP, hit first and ask
> questions later."
>
> This is neither good advice, nor can I find anyone other than me saying
> it, so I'll consign this aphorism to the bin.
>
> AtS, gammon losses don't matter for the trailer, and matter very little
> for the leader so it's basically DMP.
>
> I hit here, which disproves the assertion upthread that anyone who knows
> that odd away Crawford is basically DMP would see that it's a "next".

Not really. I don't think it disproves anything. (Almost) all players will
sometimes make errors that make themselves appear worse than they actually are.
A 3.0 player will sometimes play a blunder that "only someone with a PR worse than 7
would consider".

My guess is that you're an intermediate (maybe in the 5 to 6 range), probably a slightly
better player than I am. However, this is an uncharacteristic error that is below your usual
level.

Basically phrases such as "Only a beginner would play..." are not to be taken absolutely literally.
The meaning is that ... is a beginner-level blunder. Here, the blunder is not at the level of
a rank beginner, but at the level of players who don't understand Crawford issues.
Of course, that doesn't mean that everyone making the blunder doesn't know about Crawford --
just like it's not true that beginner-level blunders are only ever made by beginners.

Paul