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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: I rolled my worst possible roll

SubjectAuthor
* I rolled my worst possible rollTimothy Chow
+- Re: I rolled my worst possible rollpeps...@gmail.com
`- Rollout: I rolled my worst possible rollTimothy Chow

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I rolled my worst possible roll

<tm52jc$298ge$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: I rolled my worst possible roll
Date: Tue, 29 Nov 2022 08:48:29 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 29 Nov 2022 13:48 UTC

XGID=--BBa-Db---B-D---bbdAc--a-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X X |
| X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

Re: I rolled my worst possible roll

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Subject: Re: I rolled my worst possible roll
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 29 Nov 2022 14:46 UTC

On Tuesday, November 29, 2022 at 1:48:30 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=--BBa-Db---B-D---bbdAc--a-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X O O |
> | X O O | | O O |
> | X | | O O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | X O | | X X X |
> | X O | | X O X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 128 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 31

Here, I expect to be wrong because my answer is not at all QF-friendly.
However, I'll explain my thinking anyway.

Getting hit is likely to be quite bad so I won't give any more shots.
Also, I may hit the opponent so I will preserve my inner board.
This leads me to 6/2.

Admittedly, this is much simpler reasoning than Szemeredi used when
he proved in http://matwbn.icm.edu.pl/ksiazki/aa/aa27/aa27132.pdf
that positive-density subsets of the natural numbers contain arbitrarily
long arithmetic progressions but we can't all be brillint all the time.

Here, not only am I not brilliant; I'm probably not even correct!
Is that semi-colon ok? It looks weird to me.

Paul

Rollout: I rolled my worst possible roll

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: I rolled my worst possible roll
Date: Thu, 1 Dec 2022 09:17:16 -0500
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In-Reply-To: <tm52jc$298ge$2@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 1 Dec 2022 14:17 UTC

XGID=--BBa-Db---B-D---bbdAc--a-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X X |
| X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

O's blot on her 1pt allows X to play more purely than he would
otherwise. See the variant for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 11/10 eq:-0.242
Player: 44.96% (G:14.38% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 55.04% (G:23.19% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.254..-0.230) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 eq:-0.326 (-0.084)
Player: 42.79% (G:13.45% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 57.21% (G:25.39% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.337..-0.315) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/2 eq:-0.355 (-0.113)
Player: 42.60% (G:9.97% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 57.40% (G:21.88% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.368..-0.343) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--BBa-Db---B-D---bbeAc----:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O O |
| X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X O | | X X X |
| X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 6/2 eq:-0.228
Player: 44.66% (G:9.31% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 55.34% (G:18.15% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.240..-0.216) - [84.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 11/10 eq:-0.237 (-0.009)
Player: 44.38% (G:11.84% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 55.62% (G:18.88% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.248..-0.225) - [15.6%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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