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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Third roll: 63S-32S-65

SubjectAuthor
* Third roll: 63S-32S-65Timothy Chow
+- Re: Third roll: 63S-32S-65ah...Clem
+- Re: Third roll: 63S-32S-65Stick Rice
`- Rollout: Third roll: 63S-32S-65Timothy Chow

1
Third roll: 63S-32S-65

<tmad4b$2qbrs$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Third roll: 63S-32S-65
Date: Thu, 1 Dec 2022 09:18:51 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 1 Dec 2022 14:18 UTC

XGID=-a--a-E-C-A-dDa--cAe----A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 158 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

Re: Third roll: 63S-32S-65

<tmb1ja$2r0jk$2@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Third roll: 63S-32S-65
Date: Thu, 1 Dec 2022 15:07:37 -0500
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In-Reply-To: <tmad4b$2qbrs$3@dont-email.me>
 by: ah...Clem - Thu, 1 Dec 2022 20:07 UTC

On 12/1/2022 9:18 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a--a-E-C-A-dDa--cAe----A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X  O        O  X |   | O              X |
>  | X           O    |   | O                |
>  | X           O    |   | O                |
>  | X                |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O                |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O     X     X    |   | X     O        O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 158  O: 162 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 65

I's early so grabbing a permanent asset like the bar point is thematic.
But it's also thematic to knock your opponent off the four point in the
early game. And so is simply running the back checker to safety.

Plus there's the double hit, which should always be a candidate play.

So many options, and I'm not sure which is optimal. I'll hit loose on
the four point and move the blot on the 18 to safety. Not sure
..

Re: Third roll: 63S-32S-65

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Subject: Re: Third roll: 63S-32S-65
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Thu, 1 Dec 2022 21:49 UTC

On Thursday, December 1, 2022 at 9:18:53 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a--a-E-C-A-dDa--cAe----A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O X | | O X |
> | X O | | O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X X | | X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 158 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 65
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Usually I can at least guess what someone might see as Play B in most of your problems even if I label them Nexts! Here though I have no idea what play other than the correct play someone would make.

Stick

Rollout: Third roll: 63S-32S-65

<tmfm71$3c4s1$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Third roll: 63S-32S-65
Date: Sat, 3 Dec 2022 09:24:33 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 3 Dec 2022 14:24 UTC

XGID=-a--a-E-C-A-dDa--cAe----A-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 158 O: 162 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

At gammon go, hitting on the 4pt would be a serious candidate, but at
most scores, locking up an asset with 24/18 is much better. I tried
24/18 10/5, but this play volunteers too many extra shots for too little
potential gain.

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/8 eq:+0.141
Player: 53.65% (G:11.47% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 46.35% (G:9.75% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.128..+0.154) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 10/5 eq:+0.054 (-0.087)
Player: 51.55% (G:11.33% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 48.45% (G:10.78% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.041..+0.068) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 18/13 10/4* eq:+0.039 (-0.102)
Player: 51.08% (G:13.93% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 48.92% (G:13.24% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.024..+0.054) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/1* eq:+0.031 (-0.110)
Player: 50.91% (G:11.75% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 49.09% (G:11.74% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.016..+0.046) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 10/4* 6/1* eq:+0.015 (-0.126)
Player: 50.33% (G:15.38% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 49.67% (G:14.55% B:0.75%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.002..+0.032) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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