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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Action double?

SubjectAuthor
* Action double?Timothy Chow
+* Re: Action double?ah....Clem
|`- Re: Action double?peps...@gmail.com
`- Rollout: Action double?Timothy Chow

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Action double?

<tmiarp$3mjt5$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Action double?
Date: Sun, 4 Dec 2022 09:29:14 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 4 Dec 2022 14:29 UTC

XGID=--AaBBDbB---bB--bbae-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: Action double?

<tmjpoj$3sl7p$2@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Action double?
Date: Sun, 4 Dec 2022 22:49:39 -0500
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Mon, 5 Dec 2022 03:49 UTC

On 12/4/2022 9:29 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--AaBBDbB---bB--bbae-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X        O  O  O |   | O     X        X |
>  | X        O  O    |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O           X  O |   | X  X  X          |
>  | O           X  O |   | X  X  X  O  X    |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 131  O: 155 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

Mentally running through all the rolls, I'm not seeing any roll that's
not pretty devastating for O (well, 52, 53 and maybe 44). And since
almost everything is a market loser, has the market already been lost?

Looks like a cash to me, but might be TG.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Action double?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Action double?
Date: Tue, 6 Dec 2022 07:59:25 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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In-Reply-To: <tmiarp$3mjt5$3@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 6 Dec 2022 12:59 UTC

XGID=--AaBBDbB---bB--bbae-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I thought this was a take but I underestimated the gammon risk.
There are a ton of hitting rolls that send a second checker back
to face X's strong board. But see also the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 68.06% (G:40.57% B:1.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.94% (G:6.75% B:0.34%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.08% (G:40.90% B:1.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.92% (G:6.92% B:0.37%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.861 (-0.139)
Double/Take: +1.157 (+0.157)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.848..+0.874)
Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (+1.135..+1.178)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--AaBBDbB---bB--abbe-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X X |
| X O O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X O | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.97% (G:36.32% B:0.97%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.03% (G:7.21% B:0.35%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.80% (G:36.76% B:1.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.20% (G:7.33% B:0.30%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.757 (-0.197)
Double/Take: +0.954
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.046)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.741..+0.773)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.934..+0.975)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Action double?

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Subject: Re: Action double?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 6 Dec 2022 13:08 UTC

On Monday, December 5, 2022 at 3:49:41 AM UTC, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 12/4/2022 9:29 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=--AaBBDbB---bB--bbae-A--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O O | | O X X |
> > | X O O | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X |
> > | O X O | | X X X |
> > | O X O | | X X X O X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 131 O: 155 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X on roll, cube action
> Mentally running through all the rolls, I'm not seeing any roll that's
> not pretty devastating for O (well, 52, 53 and maybe 44). And since
> almost everything is a market loser, has the market already been lost?
>
> Looks like a cash to me, but might be TG.

This is a great way of thinking about it -- I like this analysis.

Paul

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