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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Another bad roll

Another bad roll

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Another bad roll
Date: Sat, 3 Dec 2022 09:26:04 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 3 Dec 2022 14:26 UTC

XGID=-a--bBD-CB---Ba--d-dc-B---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X O |
| X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Another bad roll

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Another bad roll
Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2022 09:18:26 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 5 Dec 2022 14:18 UTC

XGID=-a--bBD-CB---Ba--d-dc-B---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Hitting on the ace point seemed strange to me. Since O has an
advanced anchor, we're unlikely to launch a successful attack.
It also doesn't seem that O has strong enough threats to warrant
a tempo hit. I think that one of the main reasons to hit is that
it would be a huge improvement to X's position to be able to
complete a five-prime by making the bar, so we'd like to maximize
builders.

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/1* eq:+0.199
Player: 56.00% (G:11.93% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 44.00% (G:12.21% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.192..+0.206) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/1* eq:+0.157 (-0.042)
Player: 54.82% (G:12.01% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 45.18% (G:12.76% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.151..+0.164) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout² 13/11 13/8 eq:+0.097 (-0.102)
Player: 53.05% (G:10.59% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 46.95% (G:11.00% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.083..+0.111) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout² 13/6 eq:+0.088 (-0.111)
Player: 52.85% (G:10.76% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 47.15% (G:11.37% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.075..+0.101) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--bBD-BB-A-Ba--d-dc-B---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X O |
| X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ 11/9 6/1* eq:+0.221
Player: 56.41% (G:11.64% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 43.59% (G:11.71% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.214..+0.228) - [99.5%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/1* eq:+0.207 (-0.014)
Player: 56.18% (G:11.59% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 43.82% (G:11.87% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.199..+0.215) - [0.5%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/8 11/9 eq:+0.201 (-0.021)
Player: 55.82% (G:10.70% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 44.18% (G:10.40% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.193..+0.208) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/8 eq:+0.197 (-0.024)
Player: 55.72% (G:10.57% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 44.28% (G:10.38% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.191..+0.204) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Another bad roll

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Another bad roll
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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by: Stick Rice - Tue, 6 Dec 2022 00:35 UTC

On Monday, December 5, 2022 at 9:18:29 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a--bBD-CB---Ba--d-dc-B---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | O | | O O |
> | O | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X |
> | X X | | X X O |
> | X X | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 146 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 52
> Hitting on the ace point seemed strange to me. Since O has an
> advanced anchor, we're unlikely to launch a successful attack.
> It also doesn't seem that O has strong enough threats to warrant
> a tempo hit. I think that one of the main reasons to hit is that
> it would be a huge improvement to X's position to be able to
> complete a five-prime by making the bar, so we'd like to maximize
> builders.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/1* eq:+0.199
> Player: 56.00% (G:11.93% B:0.47%)
> Opponent: 44.00% (G:12.21% B:0.49%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.192..+0.206) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/1* eq:+0.157 (-0.042)
> Player: 54.82% (G:12.01% B:0.45%)
> Opponent: 45.18% (G:12.76% B:0.48%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.151..+0.164) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout² 13/11 13/8 eq:+0.097 (-0.102)
> Player: 53.05% (G:10.59% B:0.56%)
> Opponent: 46.95% (G:11.00% B:0.41%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.083..+0.111) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout² 13/6 eq:+0.088 (-0.111)
> Player: 52.85% (G:10.76% B:0.43%)
> Opponent: 47.15% (G:11.37% B:0.39%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.075..+0.101) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> ² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-a--bBD-BB-A-Ba--d-dc-B---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | O | | O O |
> | O | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X X O |
> | X X X | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 149 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 52
> 1. Rollout¹ 11/9 6/1* eq:+0.221
> Player: 56.41% (G:11.64% B:0.44%)
> Opponent: 43.59% (G:11.71% B:0.42%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.214..+0.228) - [99.5%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/1* eq:+0.207 (-0.014)
> Player: 56.18% (G:11.59% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 43.82% (G:11.87% B:0.46%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.199..+0.215) - [0.5%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 13/8 11/9 eq:+0.201 (-0.021)
> Player: 55.82% (G:10.70% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 44.18% (G:10.40% B:0.35%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.193..+0.208) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/8 eq:+0.197 (-0.024)
> Player: 55.72% (G:10.57% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 44.28% (G:10.38% B:0.32%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.191..+0.204) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

The ace point hit here is mainly to keep the opponent from doing anything productive.

Stick

Re: Rollout: Another bad roll

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Another bad roll
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 6 Dec 2022 09:34 UTC

On Monday, December 5, 2022 at 2:18:29 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a--bBD-CB---Ba--d-dc-B---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | O | | O O |
> | O | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X |
> | X X | | X X O |
> | X X | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 146 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 52
> Hitting on the ace point seemed strange to me. Since O has an
> advanced anchor, we're unlikely to launch a successful attack.
> It also doesn't seem that O has strong enough threats to warrant
> a tempo hit. I think that one of the main reasons to hit is that
> it would be a huge improvement to X's position to be able to
> complete a five-prime by making the bar, so we'd like to maximize
> builders.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/1* eq:+0.199
> Player: 56.00% (G:11.93% B:0.47%)
> Opponent: 44.00% (G:12.21% B:0.49%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.192..+0.206) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/1* eq:+0.157 (-0.042)
> Player: 54.82% (G:12.01% B:0.45%)
> Opponent: 45.18% (G:12.76% B:0.48%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.151..+0.164) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout² 13/11 13/8 eq:+0.097 (-0.102)
> Player: 53.05% (G:10.59% B:0.56%)
> Opponent: 46.95% (G:11.00% B:0.41%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.083..+0.111) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout² 13/6 eq:+0.088 (-0.111)
> Player: 52.85% (G:10.76% B:0.43%)
> Opponent: 47.15% (G:11.37% B:0.39%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.075..+0.101) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> ² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-a--bBD-BB-A-Ba--d-dc-B---:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | O | | O O |
> | O | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X X O |
> | X X X | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 149 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 52
> 1. Rollout¹ 11/9 6/1* eq:+0.221
> Player: 56.41% (G:11.64% B:0.44%)
> Opponent: 43.59% (G:11.71% B:0.42%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.214..+0.228) - [99.5%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/1* eq:+0.207 (-0.014)
> Player: 56.18% (G:11.59% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 43.82% (G:11.87% B:0.46%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.199..+0.215) - [0.5%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 13/8 11/9 eq:+0.201 (-0.021)
> Player: 55.82% (G:10.70% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 44.18% (G:10.40% B:0.35%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.193..+0.208) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/8 eq:+0.197 (-0.024)
> Player: 55.72% (G:10.57% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 44.28% (G:10.38% B:0.32%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.191..+0.204) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I don't know what I would have done if I attempted this.
I really doubt I would have got it correct.
I hit loose on the ace far less than XG does, so a good
if-in-doubt for me would be "If in doubt, hit on the ace point."
But that's just me. Others might hit on the ace point too often.

Re the reasons for hitting on the acepoint, I think Stick is saying that
it prevents the opponent making the 4 point or bar point.
However, your reason seems to be quite different. You seem to be saying
that 6/1* doesn't do much in itself but is just something to do because we
can't legally play just the one die, 13/11.
Very easy to resolve this debate (if I'm representing the debate correctly)..
Simply look at the positions after 13/11 and after 13/11 6/1* and compare the
equity differences. I really don't know what we'd find.

Paul

Re: Rollout: Another bad roll

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Another bad roll
Date: Tue, 6 Dec 2022 08:19:38 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 6 Dec 2022 13:19 UTC

On 12/6/2022 4:34 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

> Re the reasons for hitting on the acepoint, I think Stick is saying that
> it prevents the opponent making the 4 point or bar point.
> However, your reason seems to be quite different. You seem to be saying
> that 6/1* doesn't do much in itself but is just something to do because we
> can't legally play just the one die, 13/11.
> Very easy to resolve this debate (if I'm representing the debate correctly).
> Simply look at the positions after 13/11 and after 13/11 6/1* and compare the
> equity differences. I really don't know what we'd find.

Well, that's not exactly what I'm saying. Hitting does also
gain a tempo for us to make the bar point; if we just play 13/11
then the opponent might hit us in the outfield, which would be
a lot worse than getting hit on the ace point.

A quick check with XG suggests that it prefers 13/11 6/1* to 13/11 by
itself, but we'd prefer 13/11 by itself to 13/11 13/8.

---
Tim Chow

Subject	Author
Another bad roll	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Another bad roll	Timothy Chow
Re: Rollout: Another bad roll	Stick Rice
Re: Rollout: Another bad roll	peps...@gmail.com
Re: Rollout: Another bad roll	Timothy Chow