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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)

SubjectAuthor
* How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)BlueDice
+- Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)peps...@gmail.com
+- Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)Timothy Chow
`* Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)Stick Rice
 `* Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)BlueDice
  `- Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)Timothy Chow

1
How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)

<1ad03d6d-04da-4d0b-8da4-819641f32570n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)
From: davidgal...@gmail.com (BlueDice)
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 by: BlueDice - Tue, 6 Dec 2022 10:13 UTC

XGID=aBBBBBA-AA---------cdcdB--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O X |
| | | O O O O X |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)

<4c67525f-6025-4c0e-9792-09c9a3960c31n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 6 Dec 2022 13:05 UTC

On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 10:13:47 AM UTC, BlueDice wrote:
> XGID=aBBBBBA-AA---------cdcdB--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O O O O X |
> | | | O O O O X |
> | | | O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | | +---+
> | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
> | X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 99 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

Monster cube for sure. But I'm not at all sure if it's a pass or a take.
My instant reaction was a pass because O is hoping that we fail to cover and
O enters and that seems like a lot to hope for.
For simplicity, I would assume that this parlay is winning for O when O turns the cube.
And that parlay happens with probability 5/12 * 11/36 = 55/432.
Hmmm, we're only halfway to 25% even after accounting for the underdog's main hope.
O can win by a marathon sequence of X failing to roll 5 or 6 but that's not enough.
So not only is my initial reaction a pass, but my answer is a pass.

As when I started posting, I'm sure about the cube but not sure if it's a take or a pass.
Of course, this is not TG.

D/P for me.

Paul

Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)

<tmnf22$85a6$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)
Date: Tue, 6 Dec 2022 08:11:29 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 6 Dec 2022 13:11 UTC

On 12/6/2022 5:13 AM, BlueDice wrote:
> XGID=aBBBBBA-AA---------cdcdB--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O O O O X |
> | | | O O O O X |
> | | | O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | | +---+
> | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
> | X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 99 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

The closest reference position I have is one checker closed out
versus one checker behind a five-prime. There, it's a take unless
the doubler has 20+ spare pips to play with.

Compared to that situation, the situation is both better and worse
in various ways. In X's favor, he is behind just a four-prime,
which is much easier to leap than a five-prime. In O's favor, she
is not yet closed out, and X has very few spare pips to play unless
he escapes a back checker. Also, X has two checkers back rather
than one, although this is not that big a difference since if X
jumps one checker out, he'll gain time to get the other one out.

So we can say this: if X rolls a joker, covering and jumping out,
then it's a huge pass. If X covers but doesn't jump out and doesn't
crack his board, then I think it's probably a pass too, but at most
a close pass. If X rolls something that lets him jump out but not
cover, then I think he's going to lift the blot. That might still
be a take even if O dances, but I'm not sure.

Does X have any anti-jokers? 44 of course, and 41.

Putting all this together, I'd say it's definitely not too good.
I would take but am not sure, and would definitely double.

---
Tim Chow

Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)

<1d41e223-89c9-49f4-8e2b-6ec5ff7c616cn@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Wed, 7 Dec 2022 01:13 UTC

On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:13:47 AM UTC-5, BlueDice wrote:
> XGID=aBBBBBA-AA---------cdcdB--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O O O O X |
> | | | O O O O X |
> | | | O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | | +---+
> | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
> | X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 99 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

Can't believe people are thinking about passing this.

Stick

Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)

<517ed4cb-dbdc-44cb-bf38-779fcea77898n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)
From: davidgal...@gmail.com (BlueDice)
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 by: BlueDice - Wed, 7 Dec 2022 13:12 UTC

On Wednesday, December 7, 2022 at 1:13:25 AM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Tuesday, December 6, 2022 at 5:13:47 AM UTC-5, BlueDice wrote:
> > XGID=aBBBBBA-AA---------cdcdB--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | | | O O O O X |
> > | | | O O O O X |
> > | | | O O O O |
> > | | | O O |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | | +---+
> > | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
> > | X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 99 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> Can't believe people are thinking about passing this.
>
> Stick

XGR++ Result
Easy take says the bot.

Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances: 72.69% (G:2.65% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.31% (G:6.57% B:0.42%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.411, Double=+0.829

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.636 (-0.064)
Redouble/Take: +0.700
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.300)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)

<tmq70j$irbt$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: How do you figure this recube action? (DGID_0209)
Date: Wed, 7 Dec 2022 09:12:35 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 7 Dec 2022 14:12 UTC

Below is a variant for comparison.

XGID=aBBBBAB--AA--------cdcdB--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O X |
| | | O O O O X |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 78.06% (G:2.93% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.94% (G:5.28% B:0.33%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.32% (G:2.61% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.68% (G:5.51% B:0.48%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.799 (-0.200)
Redouble/Take: +1.000
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.000)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.797..+0.802)
Confidence Double: ± 0.004 (+0.995..+1.004)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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