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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Anchors away 4

SubjectAuthor
* Anchors away 3Timothy Chow
+* Anchors away 4Timothy Chow
|`* Rollout: Anchors away 4Timothy Chow
| `- Re: Rollout: Anchors away 4Stick Rice
`- Re: Anchors away 3ah....Clem

1
Anchors away 3

<tmsrg3$sm5a$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Anchors away 3
Date: Thu, 8 Dec 2022 09:14:27 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 8 Dec 2022 14:14 UTC

XGID=-BCBBbB-B------b---ccBb-c-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

Anchors away 4

<tmsri7$sm5a$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Anchors away 4
Date: Thu, 8 Dec 2022 09:15:35 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 8 Dec 2022 14:15 UTC

Sorry, this should be Anchors away 4 and not Anchors away 3.

XGID=-BCBBbB-B------b---ccBb-c-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

Re: Anchors away 3

<tn0msn$1c8o2$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Anchors away 3
Date: Fri, 9 Dec 2022 20:20:23 -0500
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Sat, 10 Dec 2022 01:20 UTC

On 12/8/2022 9:14 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BCBBbB-B------b---ccBb-c-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |       O          |   | O  O  X  O     O |
>  |       O          |   | O  O  X  O     O |
>  |                  |   | O  O           O |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |             X    |
>  |             X    |   | X  O  X  X  X  X |
>  |             X    |   | X  O  X  X  X  X |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 92  O: 102 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 51

21/16 2/1 leaves aces, dueces, and sixes to hit. X is going to the roof
if he runs. But a lot of those hits are loos, and X has a five point
board so maybe...

Clearing the eight point only leaves 11 shots, after which X is up by 16
pips, and the eight point isn't blocking much of anything so I'll go
with that.

The other option is 6/1 2/1 which is ugly enough to make me think it
might be the bot play, but too ugly for me to play myself.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Anchors away 4

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Anchors away 4
Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2022 08:56:45 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 114
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 10 Dec 2022 13:56 UTC

XGID=-BCBBbB-B------b---ccBb-c-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O X O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

Before trying to explain this one, see the variant below.

The fact that X has the stronger board and is running out of time
points toward breaking anchor, especially since the alternative
still volunteers a shot. Nevertheless, one still needs to take
into account O's attacking potential. In the variant, I have
moved a dead checker from O's 1pt to her 6pt. Although this of
course increases O's attacking potential, I wouldn't have expected
it to make as much difference as XG says it does.

I'm also not sure why 8/3 2/1 comes out slightly ahead of 8/7 8/3.
Probably one could figure it out by going through all of O's rolls.
But the more interesting question to me is how one could figure out
OTB to break anchor here but not in the variant. I have no good
answer to that.

1. Rollout¹ 21/16 2/1 eq:-0.357
Player: 39.77% (G:8.00% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 60.23% (G:15.63% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.364..-0.350) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 2/1 eq:-0.477 (-0.120)
Player: 36.75% (G:5.08% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 63.25% (G:7.83% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.486..-0.468) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/3 eq:-0.492 (-0.134)
Player: 36.58% (G:4.93% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 63.42% (G:8.38% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.501..-0.483) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/2 eq:-0.499 (-0.142)
Player: 36.16% (G:4.86% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 63.84% (G:8.32% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.508..-0.491) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BCBBbB-B------b---dcBb-b-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
| X | | X O X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 8/3 2/1 eq:-0.546
Player: 35.43% (G:4.85% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 64.57% (G:10.09% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.556..-0.536) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2 eq:-0.568 (-0.023)
Player: 34.85% (G:4.68% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 65.15% (G:10.48% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.577..-0.560) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/16 2/1 eq:-0.571 (-0.025)
Player: 36.54% (G:8.21% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 63.46% (G:20.53% B:0.52%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.581..-0.561) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/3 eq:-0.571 (-0.026)
Player: 35.31% (G:4.62% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 64.69% (G:10.70% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.580..-0.563) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Anchors away 4

<8ae5353f-c9ad-4b1a-a9a6-5a3d3ac6d2c3n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Anchors away 4
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 12 Dec 2022 19:33 UTC

On Saturday, December 10, 2022 at 8:56:46 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BCBBbB-B------b---ccBb-c-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O X O O |
> | O | | O O X O O |
> | | | O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X O X X X X |
> | X | | X O X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 92 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 51
> Before trying to explain this one, see the variant below.
>
> The fact that X has the stronger board and is running out of time
> points toward breaking anchor, especially since the alternative
> still volunteers a shot. Nevertheless, one still needs to take
> into account O's attacking potential. In the variant, I have
> moved a dead checker from O's 1pt to her 6pt. Although this of
> course increases O's attacking potential, I wouldn't have expected
> it to make as much difference as XG says it does.
>
> I'm also not sure why 8/3 2/1 comes out slightly ahead of 8/7 8/3.
> Probably one could figure it out by going through all of O's rolls.
> But the more interesting question to me is how one could figure out
> OTB to break anchor here but not in the variant. I have no good
> answer to that.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 21/16 2/1 eq:-0.357
> Player: 39.77% (G:8.00% B:0.19%)
> Opponent: 60.23% (G:15.63% B:0.36%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.364..-0.350) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/3 2/1 eq:-0.477 (-0.120)
> Player: 36.75% (G:5.08% B:0.07%)
> Opponent: 63.25% (G:7.83% B:0.18%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.486..-0.468) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/3 eq:-0.492 (-0.134)
> Player: 36.58% (G:4.93% B:0.10%)
> Opponent: 63.42% (G:8.38% B:0.19%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.501..-0.483) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 8/2 eq:-0.499 (-0.142)
> Player: 36.16% (G:4.86% B:0.07%)
> Opponent: 63.84% (G:8.32% B:0.22%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.508..-0.491) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-BCBBbB-B------b---dcBb-b-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O X O O |
> | O | | O O X O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X O X X X X |
> | X | | X O X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 92 O: 107 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 51
> 1. Rollout¹ 8/3 2/1 eq:-0.546
> Player: 35.43% (G:4.85% B:0.08%)
> Opponent: 64.57% (G:10.09% B:0.27%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.556..-0.536) - [99.9%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/2 eq:-0.568 (-0.023)
> Player: 34.85% (G:4.68% B:0.07%)
> Opponent: 65.15% (G:10.48% B:0.29%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.577..-0.560) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 21/16 2/1 eq:-0.571 (-0.025)
> Player: 36.54% (G:8.21% B:0.19%)
> Opponent: 63.46% (G:20.53% B:0.52%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.581..-0.561) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/3 eq:-0.571 (-0.026)
> Player: 35.31% (G:4.62% B:0.08%)
> Opponent: 64.69% (G:10.70% B:0.29%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.580..-0.563) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

The main take away should be that 16, 1 is correct. One can't play perfect backgammon but one can play pretty damn good backgammon. Making a small mistake as in the variant can at times not be avoided but making a blunder + usually is.

And on the surface it would appear to me that 3, 1 is better than 7, 3 because of how the opponent's two's would play on the upcoming roll. Basically we still have something to attack when the opponent rolls a one or a two if we stay on the 8pt. If we move to the 7pt though then every roll not containing an ace either hits or hops two men past us completely.

Stick

1
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