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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Gammon save

SubjectAuthor
* Gammon saveTimothy Chow
`* Rollout: Gammon saveTimothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Gammon savepeps...@gmail.com

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Gammon save

<tnn9gq$fk$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Gammon save
Date: Sun, 18 Dec 2022 09:53:14 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 18 Dec 2022 14:53 UTC

XGID=-BBAaBBB--A-bBaa---bbbbbA-:0:0:1:21:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 108 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Gammon save

<tnseop$mrd8$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Gammon save
Date: Tue, 20 Dec 2022 08:53:28 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 20 Dec 2022 13:53 UTC

XGID=-BBAaBBB--A-bBaa---bbbbbA-:0:0:1:21:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 108 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 21

This problem is of course a lot easier with QF. Over the board,
I suspect that very few players would play the banana split, given
that it's gammon save. But X is in trouble regardless, and this
may be his only chance to put O on the bar against a four-point
board.

1. Rollout¹ 5/3 5/4* eq:-0.843
Player: 37.80% (G:16.81% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 62.20% (G:29.96% B:2.43%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.849..-0.838) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/4* 4/3 eq:-0.885 (-0.042)
Player: 37.73% (G:16.00% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 62.27% (G:32.00% B:2.28%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.891..-0.879) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/7 eq:-0.944 (-0.101)
Player: 26.51% (G:6.47% B:0.12%)
Opponent: 73.49% (G:23.72% B:1.11%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.949..-0.939) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Gammon save

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Gammon save
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 20 Dec 2022 22:49 UTC

On Tuesday, December 20, 2022 at 1:53:31 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BBAaBBB--A-bBaa---bbbbbA-:0:0:1:21:1:0:1:2:10
>
> Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O O O X |
> | X | | O O O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O X | | X X X X |
> | O X X | | X X O X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 105 O: 108 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
> Cube: 1
> X to play 21
> This problem is of course a lot easier with QF. Over the board,
> I suspect that very few players would play the banana split, given
> that it's gammon save. But X is in trouble regardless, and this
> may be his only chance to put O on the bar against a four-point
> board.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 5/3 5/4* eq:-0.843
> Player: 37.80% (G:16.81% B:0.13%)
> Opponent: 62.20% (G:29.96% B:2.43%)
> Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.849..-0.838) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 6/4* 4/3 eq:-0.885 (-0.042)
> Player: 37.73% (G:16.00% B:0.23%)
> Opponent: 62.27% (G:32.00% B:2.28%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.891..-0.879) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 10/7 eq:-0.944 (-0.101)
> Player: 26.51% (G:6.47% B:0.12%)
> Opponent: 73.49% (G:23.72% B:1.11%)
> Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.949..-0.939) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

It's a great problem. OTB, I'd play 10/7 for sure.
Not sure what I'd play, considering QF. I'd probably
be intellectually honest and pick 10/7 anyway.

Paul

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