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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Run or stay?

SubjectAuthor
* Run or stay?Timothy Chow
+* Re: Run or stay?Bradley K. Sherman
|`* Re: Run or stay?Timothy Chow
| `* Re: Run or stay?peps...@gmail.com
|  `- Re: Run or stay?ah....Clem
+* Re: Run or stay?ah....Clem
|`- Re: Run or stay?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: Run or stay?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Run or stay?Timothy Chow

1
Run or stay?

<tnkhd3$3lr7n$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Run or stay?
Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2022 08:49:21 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 17 Dec 2022 13:49 UTC

XGID=-ECBBB---------------b-b-A:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | O O O
| | | O O | O O
| | | | O O
| | | | O O
| | X | | O O
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 60 O: 12 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

Re: Run or stay?

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From: bks...@panix.com (Bradley K. Sherman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Run or stay?
Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2022 13:56:21 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: RNA + Sunlight
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 by: Bradley K. Sherman - Sat, 17 Dec 2022 13:56 UTC

Timothy Chow <tchow12000@yahoo.com> wrote:
>XGID=-ECBBB---------------b-b-A:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>
>Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O O | O O O
> | | | O O | O O
> | | | | O O
> | | | | O O
> | | X | | O O
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | | | X X | +---+
> | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
> | | | X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 60 O: 12 X-O: 0-0
>Cube: 2, X own cube
>X to play 41

I'm staying. Very elegant puzzle, Tim. Real or constructed?

--bks

Re: Run or stay?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Run or stay?
Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2022 11:03:19 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 17 Dec 2022 16:03 UTC

On 12/17/2022 8:56 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
> Timothy Chow <tchow12000@yahoo.com> wrote:
>> XGID=-ECBBB---------------b-b-A:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>>
>> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>> | | | O O | O O O
>> | | | O O | O O
>> | | | | O O
>> | | | | O O
>> | | X | | O O
>> | |BAR| |
>> | | | X |
>> | | | X |
>> | | | X X | +---+
>> | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
>> | | | X X X X X | +---+
>> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>> Pip count X: 60 O: 12 X-O: 0-0
>> Cube: 2, X own cube
>> X to play 41
>
> I'm staying. Very elegant puzzle, Tim. Real or constructed?

It came up in an actual game that I was playing against XG.
However, in reality it was part of a match, not an unlimited game
as I've posed it here.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Run or stay?

<77c798a6-26df-455c-bbab-faccb73e2b1fn@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Run or stay?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 17 Dec 2022 18:02 UTC

On Saturday, December 17, 2022 at 4:03:21 PM UTC, Tim Chow wrote:
> On 12/17/2022 8:56 AM, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:
> > Timothy Chow <tchow...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> >> XGID=-ECBBB---------------b-b-A:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
> >>
> >> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> >> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> >> | | | O O | O O O
> >> | | | O O | O O
> >> | | | | O O
> >> | | | | O O
> >> | | X | | O O
> >> | |BAR| |
> >> | | | X |
> >> | | | X |
> >> | | | X X | +---+
> >> | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
> >> | | | X X X X X | +---+
> >> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> >> Pip count X: 60 O: 12 X-O: 0-0
> >> Cube: 2, X own cube
> >> X to play 41
> >
> > I'm staying. Very elegant puzzle, Tim. Real or constructed?
> It came up in an actual game that I was playing against XG.
> However, in reality it was part of a match, not an unlimited game
> as I've posed it here.

I'll make the DMP play here.

Paul

Re: Run or stay?

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Run or stay?
Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2022 20:56:57 -0500
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Sun, 18 Dec 2022 01:56 UTC

On 12/17/2022 8:49 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-ECBBB---------------b-b-A:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |                  |   |       O     O    |  O O O
>  |                  |   |       O     O    |  O O
>  |                  |   |                  |  O O
>  |                  |   |                  |  O O
>  |                  | X |                  |  O O
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                X |
>  |                  |   |                X |
>  |                  |   |             X  X | +---+
>  |                  |   |    X  X  X  X  X | | 2 |
>  |                  |   |    X  X  X  X  X | +---+
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 60  O: 12 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 41

O is off in two most of the time, so bar/5 doesn't save gammon very often.

Staying risks a backgammon, but they seem rarer than hitting a shot and
saving gammon that way.

bar/24 5/1,

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: Run or stay?

<tnls3v$3pvgp$4@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Run or stay?
Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2022 20:58:24 -0500
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Sun, 18 Dec 2022 01:58 UTC

On 12/17/2022 1:02 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

> I'll make the DMP play here.

At least it's obvious what that play is.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Run or stay?

<tnpmvg$a2hj$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Run or stay?
Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2022 07:55:11 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 19 Dec 2022 12:55 UTC

XGID=-ECBBB---------------b-b-A:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | O O O
| | | O O | O O
| | | | O O
| | | | O O
| | X | | O O
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 60 O: 12 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

The dominant factor turns out to be the backgammon risk.
At gammon save, XG plays bar/24 5/1.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 eq:-1.841
Player: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 100.00% (G:75.79% B:8.33%)
Confidence: ±0.000 (-1.841..-1.841) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 5/1 eq:-1.904 (-0.063)
Player: 0.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 99.68% (G:75.26% B:15.92%)
Confidence: ±0.001 (-1.905..-1.903) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
Search interval: Gigantic

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-----------
Gammon save
-----------

XGID=-ECBBB---------------b-b-A:0:0:1:41:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | O O O
| | | O O | O O
| | | | O O
| | | | O O
| | X | | O O
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 60 O: 12 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ Bar/24 5/1 eq:-2.492
Player: 0.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 99.68% (G:74.89% B:18.48%)
Confidence: ±0.001 (-2.493..-2.490) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 eq:-2.516 (-0.024)
Player: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 100.00% (G:75.79% B:8.33%)
Confidence: ±0.000 (-2.516..-2.516) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
Search interval: Gigantic

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

Re: Run or stay?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Run or stay?
Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2022 07:56:28 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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In-Reply-To: <tnls17$3pvgp$3@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 19 Dec 2022 12:56 UTC

On 12/17/2022 8:56 PM, ah....Clem wrote:
> O is off in two most of the time, so bar/5 doesn't save gammon very often.

Stick might claim that if you didn't confuse the 5pt with
the 20pt then you'd be a much better player. ;-)

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Run or stay?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Run or stay?
Date: Mon, 19 Dec 2022 08:04:50 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 19 Dec 2022 13:04 UTC

Oh, I meant to add...XG runs even if 5/1 wouldn't break the board
(but of course it's a closer call).

XGID=-DCBBC---------------b-b-A:1:1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 64 O: 12 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ Bar/20 eq:-1.841
Player: 0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 100.00% (G:75.78% B:8.33%)
Confidence: ±0.000 (-1.841..-1.841) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 5/1 eq:-1.874 (-0.033)
Player: 0.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 99.17% (G:73.19% B:16.14%)
Confidence: ±0.001 (-1.875..-1.873) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
Search interval: Gigantic

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

1
server_pubkey.txt

rocksolid light 0.9.81
clearnet tor