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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Which bar point?

SubjectAuthor
* Which bar point?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Which bar point?Timothy Chow

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Which bar point?

<to1nvm$1cr89$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Which bar point?
Date: Thu, 22 Dec 2022 09:01:26 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 22 Dec 2022 14:01 UTC

XGID=-bBB-BBA-A--bBa--d-d--bBA-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X | +---+
| X O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Which bar point?

<to6tod$2984a$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Which bar point?
Date: Sat, 24 Dec 2022 08:10:36 -0500
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In-Reply-To: <to1nvm$1cr89$2@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 24 Dec 2022 13:10 UTC

XGID=-bBB-BBA-A--bBa--d-d--bBA-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X | +---+
| X O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 65

Making our own bar point hems in O's back checkers further, but
disconnects our position and leaves our own back checkers somewhat
vulnerable to getting hemmed in. According to the rollout below,
XG prefers to make our opponent's bar point. But see the variant,
in which I have upgraded X's 3pt to his 4pt.

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 23/18 eq:+0.201
Player: 61.89% (G:22.85% B:1.54%)
Opponent: 38.11% (G:13.27% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.192..+0.210) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/7 eq:+0.130 (-0.070)
Player: 58.77% (G:22.44% B:1.83%)
Opponent: 41.23% (G:12.33% B:0.72%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.120..+0.140) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 23/18 13/7 eq:+0.115 (-0.085)
Player: 59.63% (G:23.02% B:2.07%)
Opponent: 40.37% (G:15.92% B:1.58%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.101..+0.130) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-bB-BBBA-A--bBa--d-d--bBA-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X | +---+
| X O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X O |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 146 O: 147 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 13/7 9/4 eq:+0.365
Player: 65.65% (G:26.05% B:2.09%)
Opponent: 34.35% (G:9.93% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.354..+0.376) - [99.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 23/18 eq:+0.345 (-0.020)
Player: 65.75% (G:25.93% B:1.52%)
Opponent: 34.25% (G:11.37% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.334..+0.357) - [0.7%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/8 13/7 eq:+0.324 (-0.041)
Player: 64.97% (G:25.06% B:2.00%)
Opponent: 35.03% (G:10.33% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.314..+0.334) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 23/18 13/7 eq:+0.321 (-0.044)
Player: 64.66% (G:28.15% B:2.46%)
Opponent: 35.34% (G:13.51% B:1.31%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.310..+0.331) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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