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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Blitz versus prime cube action

SubjectAuthor
* Blitz versus prime cube actionTimothy Chow
+* Re: Blitz versus prime cube actionah....Clem
|`- Re: Blitz versus prime cube actionpeps...@gmail.com
`- Rollout: Blitz versus prime cube actionTimothy Chow

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Blitz versus prime cube action

<topkjf$11qeu$6@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Blitz versus prime cube action
Date: Sat, 31 Dec 2022 10:30:55 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 31 Dec 2022 15:30 UTC

XGID=a--aBBDAA---aB-a-bbcbBb-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X O X |
| X O O | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: Blitz versus prime cube action

<toq6ag$133h3$2@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Blitz versus prime cube action
Date: Sat, 31 Dec 2022 15:33:22 -0500
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Sat, 31 Dec 2022 20:33 UTC

On 12/31/2022 10:30 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=a--aBBDAA---aB-a-bbcbBb-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X     O     O  O |   | O  O  X  O     X |
>  | X           O  O |   | O  O  X  O       |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  | O |                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                | +---+
>  |                  |   | X  X  X          | | 2 |
>  | O           X  X |   | X  X  X  O       | +---+
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 149  O: 134 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

X is behind in the race, with position about even and an advantage in
threats. That usually implies ND/T.

Are there enough market losers to justify shipping it now? Fourteen POH
rolls, plus several that send a second checker to the roof, so I think so.

RD/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: Blitz versus prime cube action

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Subject: Re: Blitz versus prime cube action
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 31 Dec 2022 22:39 UTC

On Saturday, December 31, 2022 at 8:33:23 PM UTC, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 12/31/2022 10:30 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=a--aBBDAA---aB-a-bbcbBb-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O O | | O O X O X |
> > | X O O | | O O X O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | O | |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X | +---+
> > | | | X X X | | 2 |
> > | O X X | | X X X O | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 149 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> X is behind in the race, with position about even and an advantage in
> threats. That usually implies ND/T.
>
> Are there enough market losers to justify shipping it now? Fourteen POH
> rolls, plus several that send a second checker to the roof, so I think so.
>
> RD/T.

I see this as a big pass with 6, 3, and 1 to hit. I don't think the opponent can withstand this blitz.
Clearly not TG.
RD/P.

Paul

Rollout: Blitz versus prime cube action

<tp1b09$24rlf$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Blitz versus prime cube action
Date: Tue, 3 Jan 2023 08:36:09 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 3 Jan 2023 13:36 UTC

XGID=a--aBBDAA---aB-a-bbcbBb-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X O X |
| X O O | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Paul is right that X has so many hitting rolls that O has to pass.
In fact, the bot hits with *every single roll*. O's only defense
is her prime, but it's only a four-prime (or maybe a broken
five-prime, if you consider X's straggler).

If we move O's blot on her 10pt back a pip to her 11pt, however,
then the XG rollout below indicates that O has a close take.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 69.57% (G:39.68% B:4.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.43% (G:8.74% B:0.75%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.72% (G:41.02% B:5.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.28% (G:8.95% B:0.88%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.934 (-0.066)
Redouble/Take: +1.277 (+0.277)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.923..+0.944)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+1.258..+1.296)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=a--aBBDAA---aBa--bbcbBb-A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X O X |
| X O O | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 65.24% (G:34.68% B:4.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.76% (G:10.63% B:0.98%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.59% (G:36.55% B:4.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.41% (G:10.97% B:1.08%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.797 (-0.151)
Redouble/Take: +0.948
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.052)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.787..+0.806)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.928..+0.967)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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