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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Containment cube action

SubjectAuthor
* Containment cube actionTimothy Chow
`* Rollout: Containment cube actionTimothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Containment cube actionStick Rice

1
Containment cube action

<tp964f$35mbo$5@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Containment cube action
Date: Fri, 6 Jan 2023 08:02:08 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 6 Jan 2023 13:02 UTC

XGID=-a--BBCC--C--B----ccbb-bb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X |
| X X | | X X X |
| X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Containment cube action

<tphe8e$7ulh$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Containment cube action
Date: Mon, 9 Jan 2023 11:09:50 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 9 Jan 2023 16:09 UTC

XGID=-a--BBCC--C--B----ccbb-bb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X | | X |
| X X | | X X X |
| X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

O has a sizable lead in the pip count and (temporarily at least) an
excellent board. But what are her chances of escaping and/or hitting
a shot, versus X successfully priming and/or closing out O's straggler
while her forward structure collapses?

I was spooked by X's priming potential and passed this cube, but XG says
it's an easy take. For comparison, see the variant below.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 72.55% (G:3.76% B:0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.45% (G:4.69% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.82% (G:4.40% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.18% (G:4.86% B:0.05%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.724 (-0.045)
Double/Take: +0.769
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.231)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.717..+0.731)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+0.759..+0.779)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--BBCC-AB--B----ccbb-bb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X X |
| X X X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 78.18% (G:4.41% B:0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.82% (G:3.53% B:0.04%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.04% (G:5.12% B:0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.96% (G:3.98% B:0.05%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.857 (-0.143)
Double/Take: +1.087 (+0.087)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.850..+0.864)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.077..+1.096)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Containment cube action

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Containment cube action
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 9 Jan 2023 19:18 UTC

On Monday, January 9, 2023 at 11:09:52 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a--BBCC--C--B----ccbb-bb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O O O |
> | X O | | O O O O O |
> | O | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X X | | X |
> | X X | | X X X |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 113 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> O has a sizable lead in the pip count and (temporarily at least) an
> excellent board. But what are her chances of escaping and/or hitting
> a shot, versus X successfully priming and/or closing out O's straggler
> while her forward structure collapses?
>
> I was spooked by X's priming potential and passed this cube, but XG says
> it's an easy take. For comparison, see the variant below.
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 72.55% (G:3.76% B:0.08%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 27.45% (G:4.69% B:0.05%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 72.82% (G:4.40% B:0.14%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 27.18% (G:4.86% B:0.05%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.724 (-0.045)
> Double/Take: +0.769
> Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.231)
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Take
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.717..+0.731)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+0.759..+0.779)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-a--BBCC-AB--B----ccbb-bb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O O O |
> | X O | | O O O O O |
> | O | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X | | X |
> | X X | | X X X |
> | X X X | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 112 O: 87 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 78.18% (G:4.41% B:0.09%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 21.82% (G:3.53% B:0.04%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 79.04% (G:5.12% B:0.15%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 20.96% (G:3.98% B:0.05%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.857 (-0.143)
> Double/Take: +1.087 (+0.087)
> Double/Pass: +1.000
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Pass
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.850..+0.864)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+1.077..+1.096)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

You need to include two variants when you roll the extra checker off the 10pt. By rolling it to the 9pt as in your variant you've slotted the 10pt, another potential point in your prime, added a builder/attacker for the 3pt if the opponent should step up, and created the overall outfield coverage/flexibility. If, however, you'd have rolled it back to the 11pt (and set the opponent back a pip to keep things even keel if you like) now there's still the increased outfield coverage and many added numbers to make points at the back of the prime but we lose out on the direct slot and the builder for the 3pt and it's a take.

Stick

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