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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: 5pt problems never get old 2

SubjectAuthor
* 5pt problems never get old 2Timothy Chow
+- Re: 5pt problems never get old 2Benjamin Friesen
+- Re: 5pt problems never get old 2ah....Clem
`- Rollout: 5pt problems never get old 2Timothy Chow

1
5pt problems never get old 2

<tq8vu9$u6fa$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 5pt problems never get old 2
Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2023 09:32:41 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 18 Jan 2023 14:32 UTC

XGID=-aa-B-E-BB--cBA--c-dc--A--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

Re: 5pt problems never get old 2

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Subject: Re: 5pt problems never get old 2
From: melanio...@gmail.com (Benjamin Friesen)
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 by: Benjamin Friesen - Wed, 18 Jan 2023 20:37 UTC

On Wednesday, January 18, 2023 at 9:32:43 AM UTC-5, Tim Chow wrote:
> XGID=-aa-B-E-BB--cBA--c-dc--A--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O |
> | O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X X | | X X |
> | O X X | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 135 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 41
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Our blot in the opp's outfield = hit two. (though where it is now it is probably the least likely to need the double hitting defense with the duplication of twos) Lift it, make the 5pt.

Stick

Re: 5pt problems never get old 2

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 5pt problems never get old 2
Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2023 16:52:17 -0500
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 by: ah....Clem - Wed, 18 Jan 2023 21:52 UTC

On 1/18/2023 9:32 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-aa-B-E-BB--cBA--c-dc--A--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X  X        O    |   | O  O        X    |
>  | X           O    |   | O  O             |
>  |             O    |   | O  O             |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O                |   | X                |
>  | O        X  X    |   | X     X          |
>  | O        X  X    |   | X     X     O  O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 135  O: 149 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 41

Hit two? A 41 played 6/2*/1* is a standard opening reply, but here X is
ahead in the race with a checker escaped.

Is the safe play (14/9) better than making the five? Safe v bold
criteria point to safe, so maybe.

But since I'm not sure, I'll make the five point here.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: 5pt problems never get old 2

<tqe5uf$231qb$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 5pt problems never get old 2
Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2023 08:45:52 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 20 Jan 2023 13:45 UTC

XGID=-aa-B-E-BB--cBA--c-dc--A--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

This time, my variant was the same as Stick's. The two plays are
very close at DMP, but the double hit is more gammonish. Though
X doesn't have an advantage in board strength, he does have 11
checkers in the zone ready to attack.

Magriel's criteria suggest a safe play, but making the 5pt isn't
really safe. In the variant, making the 5pt is safer.

1. Rollout¹ 6/2* 2/1* eq:+0.294
Player: 55.64% (G:24.16% B:0.63%)
Opponent: 44.36% (G:14.10% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.281..+0.307) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/5 6/5 eq:+0.224 (-0.070)
Player: 56.02% (G:20.16% B:1.10%)
Opponent: 43.98% (G:15.66% B:0.91%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.210..+0.238) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aa-B-E-BB--cC---c-dc--A--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 134 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 9/5 6/5 eq:+0.369
Player: 59.02% (G:19.40% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 40.98% (G:12.10% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.362..+0.375) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/2* 2/1* eq:+0.355 (-0.014)
Player: 57.05% (G:23.64% B:0.59%)
Opponent: 42.95% (G:12.66% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.348..+0.362) - [0.3%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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