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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 32 to play

SubjectAuthor
* 32 to playTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: 32 to playTimothy Chow

1
32 to play

<tqguei$2kqud$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=11147&group=rec.games.backgammon#11147

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 32 to play
Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2023 09:56:19 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 21 Jan 2023 14:56 UTC

XGID=-b-B--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 32 to play

<tqm5r9$3ldqs$1@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 32 to play
Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2023 09:33:13 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 23 Jan 2023 14:33 UTC

XGID=-b-B--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

This one is again not close. Even if making the 4pt were to leave
a double direct shot, it would be a close decision (see variant).

1. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.148
Player: 46.28% (G:16.03% B:1.06%)
Opponent: 53.72% (G:18.47% B:1.38%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.163..-0.133) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 7/5 eq:-0.283 (-0.135)
Player: 43.38% (G:15.55% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 56.62% (G:20.73% B:1.77%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.296..-0.269) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.306 (-0.158)
Player: 42.72% (G:13.98% B:1.03%)
Opponent: 57.28% (G:19.22% B:1.56%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.322..-0.290) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aaB--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 6/1* eq:-0.187
Player: 45.71% (G:17.16% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 54.29% (G:19.57% B:1.38%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.201..-0.173) - [64.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.190 (-0.003)
Player: 44.95% (G:17.33% B:0.93%)
Opponent: 55.05% (G:19.19% B:1.60%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.198..-0.182) - [35.1%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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