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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Too many 5's

SubjectAuthor
* Too many 5'sTimothy Chow
+- Re: Too many 5'sah....Clem
`- Rollout: Too many 5'sTimothy Chow

1
Too many 5's

<trj8bp$1g1ql$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!reader01.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Too many 5's
Date: Fri, 3 Feb 2023 10:14:01 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 3 Feb 2023 15:14 UTC

XGID=a--BBBBBB-a-a----bbbbbAbB-:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X O X |
| O O | | O O O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O O X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 55

---
Tim Chow

Re: Too many 5's

<trkdkl$1ltss$5@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Too many 5's
Date: Fri, 3 Feb 2023 20:50:13 -0500
Organization: The Future Fair
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In-Reply-To: <trj8bp$1g1ql$2@dont-email.me>
 by: ah....Clem - Sat, 4 Feb 2023 01:50 UTC

On 2/3/2023 10:14 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=a--BBBBBB-a-a----bbbbbAbB-:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |             O  O |   | O  O  O  X  O  X |
>  |             O  O |   | O  O  O     O  X |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  | O |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  | +---+
>  |             X  X |   | X  X  X  X       | | 2 |
>  | O     O     X  X |   | X  X  X  X       | +---+
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 136  O: 117 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 55

Unless there's something I'm not seeing, making the deuce point followed
by either stacking four checkers on the three point or switching points
from the six to the ace. Neither are very appetizing.

6/1 8/3 after making the deuce? A bot play for sure, but I doubt I'd
even consider it otb.

The point switching play gives X a few more rolls before crunching so
I'll go with that. Without much confidence.

7/2(2) 6/1(2).

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Too many 5's

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Too many 5's
Date: Sun, 5 Feb 2023 08:36:16 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 5 Feb 2023 13:36 UTC

XGID=a--BBBBBB-a-a----bbbbbAbB-:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X O X |
| O O | | O O O O X |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O O X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 55

Usually, in a priming battle, one tries to keep one's prime as long
as possible; in particular, one tried to avoid making the 1pt. But
here, X's timing is so bad that he has to accept that he can't hold
his prime. Instead, he has to switch to damage control.

If O were close to cracking herself, then X could venture 8/3(2) 7/2(2)
(see variant below).

1. Rollout¹ 7/2(2) 6/1(2) eq:-0.661
Player: 21.26% (G:8.04% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 78.74% (G:21.70% B:1.17%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.669..-0.653) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3(2) 7/2(2) eq:-0.757 (-0.096)
Player: 19.17% (G:6.49% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 80.83% (G:25.30% B:1.59%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.763..-0.750) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=a--BBBBBB--------bbdbbAbB-:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X O X |
| O O | | O O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 101 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 55

1. Rollout¹ 8/3(2) 7/2(2) eq:-0.806
Player: 18.42% (G:2.68% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 81.58% (G:24.38% B:1.59%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.812..-0.799) - [89.4%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/2(2) 6/1(2) eq:-0.811 (-0.005)
Player: 16.72% (G:1.27% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 83.28% (G:19.95% B:0.97%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.815..-0.806) - [10.6%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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