XGID=--B-baD-CB--dB----Bcbc----:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O |
| X X | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

---
Tim Chow

On Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 11:56:18 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--B-baD-CB--dB----Bcbc----:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X | | O O O |
> | X X | | O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X X | | X O X |
> | O X X | | X O O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 132 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 51
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
X's problems are stripped 18 and 13 points. Solving that problem with something like 18/13 18/17 seems very high risk, leaving a direct shot followed by the problem of having to safety that blot with a 4, 8 or 9. Almost half the time X will find himself on the bar, still with no improvement in his home board. I would focus on trying to safely improve our home board while O's position starts to come apart somehow and we get a shot. Or, with some luck contact starts to diminish and we can take advantage of our current 22 point lead.
Hitting the blot on the 5 point looks appealing, but there is no good 5 to go with it, and it leaves 5s, 14, 23, 11. 8/2 kills safe 6s and doesn't start to make a new point. I would play 6/1 2/1 despite putting two checkers out of play.
Probably a horrible mistake, but would love to see how others think through this one.
Bob

On Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 5:10:45 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
> On Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 11:56:18 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=--B-baD-CB--dB----Bcbc----:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X X | | O O O |
> > | X X | | O O O |
> > | | | O O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | O | | X |
> > | O X | | X |
> > | O X X | | X O X |
> > | O X X | | X O O X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 132 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 51
> >
> > ---
> > Tim Chow
> X's problems are stripped 18 and 13 points. Solving that problem with something like 18/13 18/17 seems very high risk, leaving a direct shot followed by the problem of having to safety that blot with a 4, 8 or 9. Almost half the time X will find himself on the bar, still with no improvement in his home board. I would focus on trying to safely improve our home board while O's position starts to come apart somehow and we get a shot. Or, with some luck contact starts to diminish and we can take advantage of our current 22 point lead.
> Hitting the blot on the 5 point looks appealing, but there is no good 5 to go with it, and it leaves 5s, 14, 23, 11. 8/2 kills safe 6s and doesn't start to make a new point. I would play 6/1 2/1 despite putting two checkers out of play.
> Probably a horrible mistake, but would love to see how others think through this one.
> Bob

How do you follow a play like this up other than rolling perfect numbers almost immediately? We're almost 30 pips up in the race, have a decent offensive structure, want to break contact, can survive being hit if we pay now and are hit, and have nearly no timing left to find a better number to run with. All signs point to peace out sauerkraut.

Stick

On Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 6:40:22 PM UTC-5, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 5:10:45 PM UTC-5, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
> > On Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 11:56:18 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > > XGID=--B-baD-CB--dB----Bcbc----:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
> > >
> > > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > | X X | | O O O |
> > > | X X | | O O O |
> > > | | | O O |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | |BAR| |
> > > | | | |
> > > | O | | X |
> > > | O X | | X |
> > > | O X X | | X O X |
> > > | O X X | | X O O X |
> > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > Pip count X: 132 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
> > > Cube: 1
> > > X to play 51
> > >
> > > ---
> > > Tim Chow
> > X's problems are stripped 18 and 13 points. Solving that problem with something like 18/13 18/17 seems very high risk, leaving a direct shot followed by the problem of having to safety that blot with a 4, 8 or 9. Almost half the time X will find himself on the bar, still with no improvement in his home board. I would focus on trying to safely improve our home board while O's position starts to come apart somehow and we get a shot. Or, with some luck contact starts to diminish and we can take advantage of our current 22 point lead.
> > Hitting the blot on the 5 point looks appealing, but there is no good 5 to go with it, and it leaves 5s, 14, 23, 11. 8/2 kills safe 6s and doesn't start to make a new point. I would play 6/1 2/1 despite putting two checkers out of play.
> > Probably a horrible mistake, but would love to see how others think through this one.
> > Bob
> How do you follow a play like this up other than rolling perfect numbers almost immediately? We're almost 30 pips up in the race, have a decent offensive structure, want to break contact, can survive being hit if we pay now and are hit, and have nearly no timing left to find a better number to run with. All signs point to peace out sauerkraut.
>
> Stick

......and have nearly no timing left to find a better number to run with

Good point! Thanks.

Bob

XGID=--B-baD-CB--dB----Bcbc----:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O |
| X X | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

I don't find this position to be nearly as simple as Stick makes it
sound. The first thing I look at in this sort of position is how
strong O's board is. O has the best three-point board, which is
not so strong as to make me rule out 18/17 18/13 immediately, but
which is strong enough to warrant looking at other factors. A key
point here is Robert's comment about "strengthening our board." The
main alternative to 18/17 18/13 is 6/1 2/1, which actually weakens
our board.

In Variant 1 below, the safe play slightly improves our board, and
XG says the decision is a toss-up. In Variant 2 below, O has a
four-point board and XG plays safe.

1. Rollout¹ 18/17 18/13 eq:+0.196
Player: 56.39% (G:8.14% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 43.61% (G:11.51% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.183..+0.208) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/1 2/1 eq:+0.117 (-0.078)
Player: 53.83% (G:11.40% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 46.17% (G:13.12% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.104..+0.130) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/2 eq:+0.069 (-0.126)
Player: 52.81% (G:10.85% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 47.19% (G:13.17% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.057..+0.082) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/3 2/1 eq:+0.060 (-0.135)
Player: 52.42% (G:10.27% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 47.58% (G:13.24% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.047..+0.074) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-AA-baD-CB--dB----Bcbc----:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O |
| X X | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 18/13 2/1 eq:+0.154
Player: 55.10% (G:9.36% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 44.90% (G:12.20% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.142..+0.166) - [84.1%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 2/1 eq:+0.145 (-0.009)
Player: 54.06% (G:11.47% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 45.94% (G:12.13% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.133..+0.158) - [15.9%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=--B-baD-CB--dB----Bbb-bb--:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X O X |
| O X X | | X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 6/1 2/1 eq:+0.117
Player: 53.69% (G:10.70% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 46.31% (G:12.83% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.105..+0.128) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/17 18/13 eq:+0.090 (-0.026)
Player: 54.03% (G:6.93% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 45.97% (G:13.13% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.079..+0.102) - [0.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow