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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 63 to play

SubjectAuthor
* 63 to playTimothy Chow
+- Re: 63 to playRobert Zimmerman
`- Rollout: 63 to playTimothy Chow

1
63 to play

<ttq4nj$9uuk$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 63 to play
Date: Thu, 2 Mar 2023 07:27:31 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 2 Mar 2023 12:27 UTC

XGID=--aaCBCBb--BA------AccbcA-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | X O O O O X | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X O X | | X X X |
| X X O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

Re: 63 to play

<59849d7a-2a74-4d4b-a734-be1b5d5e41d6n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: 63 to play
From: zimbrook...@gmail.com (Robert Zimmerman)
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 by: Robert Zimmerman - Thu, 2 Mar 2023 18:17 UTC

On Thursday, March 2, 2023 at 7:27:33 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--aaCBCBb--BA------AccbcA-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | X O O O O X | +---+
> | | | O O O O | | 2 |
> | | | O O O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X |
> | X O X | | X X X |
> | X X O X | | X X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 131 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 63
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I think you need to put O on the bar, otherwise, after we play 12/6 4/1, she will have 7 shots to point on our blot on our 24 point, and 22 more loose hits. If not hit, we're still in a bad, if not worse, situation. 12/3* limits O to 15 return shots and we'll have 31 shots to cover if we're not hit. I don't think any plays leaving our blot on the 12 point are contenders.

Bob

Rollout: 63 to play

<tu0grg$12vst$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 63 to play
Date: Sat, 4 Mar 2023 17:31:13 -0500
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In-Reply-To: <ttq4nj$9uuk$2@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 4 Mar 2023 22:31 UTC

XGID=--aaCBCBb--BA------AccbcA-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | X O O O O X | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X O X | | X X X |
| X X O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

After hitting with 6/3*, I was more concerned about my blot on the
24pt than about my blot on the 12pt, but XG says it should have been
the other way around. See the variant, where my opponent's 3s are
duplicated (or even triplicated).

1. Rollout¹ 12/3* eq:+0.359
Player: 65.49% (G:29.12% B:1.51%)
Opponent: 34.51% (G:12.72% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.349..+0.369) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/3* eq:+0.151 (-0.208)
Player: 61.70% (G:25.08% B:1.19%)
Opponent: 38.30% (G:19.46% B:0.96%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.141..+0.162) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aaCBCBb-BA-------AccbcA-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | X O O O O X | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X O X | | X X X |
| X X O X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 118 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 6/3* eq:+0.298
Player: 65.41% (G:27.01% B:1.32%)
Opponent: 34.59% (G:15.66% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.291..+0.305) - [76.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/3* eq:+0.294 (-0.004)
Player: 63.65% (G:27.93% B:1.39%)
Opponent: 36.35% (G:13.10% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.285..+0.302) - [23.3%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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