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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Blitz vs. prime

SubjectAuthor
* Blitz vs. primeTimothy Chow
+- Re: Blitz vs. primeRobert Zimmerman
`* Rollout: Blitz vs. primeTimothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: Blitz vs. primeRobert Zimmerman
  `- Re: Rollout: Blitz vs. primeTimothy Chow

1
Blitz vs. prime

<ttl2v5$3kb2q$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Blitz vs. prime
Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2023 09:26:45 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 28 Feb 2023 14:26 UTC

XGID=aAaBBCBB--a-Aa-aacbbb-AA--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O O O | | O O X X | +---+
| O O | | O O | | 2 |
| O | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

--
Tim Chow

Re: Blitz vs. prime

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Subject: Re: Blitz vs. prime
From: zimbrook...@gmail.com (Robert Zimmerman)
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 by: Robert Zimmerman - Tue, 28 Feb 2023 18:11 UTC

On Tuesday, February 28, 2023 at 9:26:47 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=aAaBBCBB--a-Aa-aacbbb-AA--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O O O O | | O O X X | +---+
> | O O | | O O | | 2 |
> | O | | | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X X X X |
> | X O X | | X X X X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 113 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 41
>
> --
> Tim Chow

I look at the opponent holding the doubling cube and think that, if priming and blitzing are equally viable, then priming is preferred to avoid getting back to the opponent's doubling window. So my first bet would be on blitzing. Looking at the position, it looks like O has a great shot at outperforming us in a priming battle based on our risk for crunching and on his well-place outfield checkers.
Admittedly, my problem is figuring out what the best blitzing play is, and I'm not sure my blitzing and priming plays would be different..... I'm guessing what distinguishes a priming play here is using the 1 to get to the edge of the prime and bring that/those checkers around. They're needed for a prime given the blot on the ace point and spare on 5.

Bob

Rollout: Blitz vs. prime

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Blitz vs. prime
Date: Thu, 2 Mar 2023 07:26:13 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 2 Mar 2023 12:26 UTC

XGID=---a-BCBB-A-bBa--bbbcB-bA-:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X O X |
| X O O | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 55

Like Bob, I played 21/16(2), 8/3*(2). But X is still way behind in the
pip count after this roll, and 21/16(2) somewhat strands his straggler.
See the variant below for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 13/3*(2) eq:+0.294
Player: 52.75% (G:14.82% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 47.25% (G:12.19% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.283..+0.304) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 8/3*(2) eq:+0.181 (-0.113)
Player: 50.58% (G:15.47% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 49.42% (G:18.00% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.171..+0.190) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---a-BCBB-A-bCa--bbbcB-b--:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X O |
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 55

1. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 8/3*(2) eq:+0.595
Player: 62.57% (G:13.59% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 37.43% (G:7.39% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.587..+0.602) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/3*(2) eq:+0.566 (-0.029)
Player: 61.69% (G:16.07% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 38.31% (G:7.91% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.552..+0.580) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Blitz vs. prime

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Blitz vs. prime
From: zimbrook...@gmail.com (Robert Zimmerman)
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 by: Robert Zimmerman - Thu, 2 Mar 2023 14:26 UTC

On Thursday, March 2, 2023 at 7:26:14 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=---a-BCBB-A-bBa--bbbcB-bA-:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O O X O X |
> | X O O | | O O X O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X | +---+
> | O X X | | X X | | 2 |
> | O X X X | | X X O | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 160 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 55
>
> Like Bob, I played 21/16(2), 8/3*(2). But X is still way behind in the
> pip count after this roll, and 21/16(2) somewhat strands his straggler.
> See the variant below for comparison.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/3*(2) eq:+0.294
> Player: 52.75% (G:14.82% B:0.49%)
> Opponent: 47.25% (G:12.19% B:0.61%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.283..+0.304) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 8/3*(2) eq:+0.181 (-0.113)
> Player: 50.58% (G:15.47% B:0.66%)
> Opponent: 49.42% (G:18.00% B:0.74%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.171..+0.190) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=---a-BCBB-A-bCa--bbbcB-b--:1:1:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O O X O |
> | X O O | | O O X O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X | +---+
> | O X X | | X X | | 2 |
> | O X X X | | X X O | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 149 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 55
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 21/16(2) 8/3*(2) eq:+0.595
> Player: 62.57% (G:13.59% B:0.39%)
> Opponent: 37.43% (G:7.39% B:0.23%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.587..+0.602) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/3*(2) eq:+0.566 (-0.029)
> Player: 61.69% (G:16.07% B:0.46%)
> Opponent: 38.31% (G:7.91% B:0.28%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.552..+0.580) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

You scrambled your threads, Tim.
:-)

Re: Rollout: Blitz vs. prime

<ttui7q$t467$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Blitz vs. prime
Date: Fri, 3 Mar 2023 23:42:34 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 4 Mar 2023 04:42 UTC

On 3/2/2023 9:26 AM, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
> You scrambled your threads, Tim.
> :-)

Whoops! You're right, of course. Here's the rollout of the
correct position. I spent most of my time trying to decide
between 7/2* and 22/21 5/1. The bot play of 6/2*/1 is a type
of play that I'd seen before, but it didn't seem to be the
right idea here since it sacrifices X's priming potential.
What I found even more surprising was that in the variant
below, where I've advanced X's checker on his 23pt to his 22pt,
22/21 5/1 leaps ahead of 6/2*/1 in the rollout results. Not
quite sure how to make sense of these results.

XGID=aAaBBCBB--a-Aa-aacbbb-AA--:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O O O | | O O X X | +---+
| O O | | O O | | 2 |
| O | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 6/2* 2/1 eq:+0.972
Player: 69.56% (G:60.34% B:17.11%)
Opponent: 30.44% (G:7.76% B:0.44%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.958..+0.986) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/2* eq:+0.934 (-0.038)
Player: 68.64% (G:57.62% B:19.76%)
Opponent: 31.36% (G:9.38% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.921..+0.946) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 22/21 5/1 eq:+0.887 (-0.085)
Player: 67.89% (G:57.18% B:16.94%)
Opponent: 32.11% (G:6.75% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.874..+0.899) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 7/6 5/1 eq:+0.848 (-0.124)
Player: 66.44% (G:56.38% B:18.07%)
Opponent: 33.56% (G:7.93% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.835..+0.861) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aAaBBCBB--a-Aa-aacbbb-B---:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O O O | | O O X | +---+
| O O | | O O X | | 2 |
| O | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X O X | | X X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 22/21 5/1 eq:+1.039
Player: 71.25% (G:60.09% B:19.59%)
Opponent: 28.75% (G:5.53% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.025 (+1.014..+1.064) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/2* 2/1 eq:+0.970 (-0.069)
Player: 69.71% (G:60.64% B:16.29%)
Opponent: 30.29% (G:7.46% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.957..+0.984) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

1
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