Biden riles US Allies

Now, a few months later, we have Great Britain (our number one
ally) saying we screwed them and that they can't rely on us,
and India and Taiwan wondering if we are reliable, and now
we have another major player, France, not happy.

From Reuters:

France accused U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday of stabbing it in
the back and acting like his predecessor Donald Trump,
after Paris was pushed aside from a lucrative defence deal that
it had signed with Australia for submarines.

The United States, Britain and Australia said they would establish a
security partnership for the Indo-Pacific that will help Australia
acquire U.S. nuclear-powered submarines and scrap the $40 billion
French-designed submarine deal.

“This brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision reminds me a lot of
what Mr Trump used to do,” Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told
franceinfo radio. “I am angry and bitter. This isn’t done between allies.”

"a425couple" <a425couple@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:YIL0J.105977$lC6.97619@fx41.iad...
> Biden riles US Allies
>
> Now, a few months later, we have Great Britain (our number one
> ally) saying we screwed them and that they can't rely on us,
> and India and Taiwan wondering if we are reliable, and now
> we have another major player, France, not happy.
>
> From Reuters:
>
> France accused U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday of stabbing it in the
> back and acting like his predecessor Donald Trump,
> after Paris was pushed aside from a lucrative defence deal that
> it had signed with Australia for submarines.
>
> The United States, Britain and Australia said they would establish a
> security partnership for the Indo-Pacific that will help Australia acquire
> U.S. nuclear-powered submarines and scrap the $40 billion French-designed
> submarine deal.
>
> “This brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision reminds me a lot of
> what Mr Trump used to do,” Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told
> franceinfo radio. “I am angry and bitter. This isn’t done between allies.”

Reporting the same thing, altering the emphasis. In reality it is all of
the above and below, individuals choose what are the most important
factors for them.

To put it another way the US announces the threat from Xi is such
that is releasing some of its most cutting edge technology to allies as
a way of bolstering them and making it clear to Xi the cost of a policy
of confrontation.

Or how about US president secures large defence contract, many high
paying US jobs will result.

Meantime the French use the fertile ground created by the previous US
President to shift blame. Given much of the world has characterised
the previous US President as 1) What's in it for me. 200) What's in it for
the US, along with a vision of a troika running the world, with Xi and
Putin sitting at the feet of the great one, eagerly absorbing and then using
the wisdom being magnanimously dispensed. Also looking at the US
media adopting the propaganda business model, as it is more profitable
to tell people what they want to hear than news, which they often do not
want to hear. It has become easier to blame the US recently, with people
like Xi being better ambassadors for the country than the behaviour in
Washington and the media. Turn inward talk does not go down well with
those being apparently excluded or ignored.

The French submarines were to have cost $50 billion as of 2016 when the
contract was signed, as of February 2021 that had risen to $90 billion,
making nuclear more cost competitive. Verbal promises of work to
Australian firms remain mostly that. The original time line was for the
first
boat to be in the water in the mid 2020's, as of August 2021 it was mid
2030's.

Certainly not all of that is the fault of the French, they were asked to
redesign
a nuclear submarine into a diesel electric one for a start, with input from
the
Australians about what they wanted and needed, and the country has a long
record of major cost and time blowouts on defence projects. It should be
noted over the course of the program Australian Federal politics has had a
motto along the lines of of it is Tuesday, must be time to change the Prime
Minister or the Defence Minister. The voters changed the government once.

The whole process started in 2009 as long term discussion about replacing
the existing 6 Collins Class commissioned between 1996 and 2003, but
shelved until a change of government, it became more serious in May 2013,
by mid 2014 Japan was in the frame as the designers, in February 2015 it
was a competition, Germany, Japan and France, the latter winning.

By the looks of things the government has been looking at other options for
over a year now. It does explain why the British Prime Minister apparently
gatecrashed what was advertised as a one on one Australian Prime Minister
US President meeting at the Cornwall G7. The Australian Prime Minister
declined to inform the French President of the just discussed US and UK
ideas when the two met after the G7.

Australia has only one small nuclear reactor, for research and medical
purposes. It was built in a rural area that is now suburbia and as a result
is subject to the usual campaign of we were here second, you should go.
It does not have a nuclear waste storage facility, that debate is old enough
that retirees can recall it from their childhood. Never have to refuel
reactors
are being offered.

If anyone has information on firm plans on what happens to the submarine
reactor fuel and contaminated material at end of life please share it. The
promise is Australia will not develop any civil or military nuclear ability,
so the US will have a lot of say over whether the reactors are useable and
the government seems to be trying to imply that means they go back to
the US at end of life, do not worry about it or that a future US
administration
could "turn them off".

Meantime about $2.5 billion has been spent on the project so far, with
cancellation costs to come and the costs of reconfiguring the shipyards
and workforce. Plus the costs of upgrading and keeping in service the
Collins Class for 30 to 40 years instead of 20 to 30. All that should be
about the cost of 2 or maybe more new submarines.

There is no actual sale or order for the new submarines. The Australian
Government has set up an interdepartmental committee which has 18
months for “identifying the optimal pathway to deliver at least eight
nuclear-powered submarines for Australia”. The immediate agreement
is more US forces in Australia and other technology sharing.

The current Federal Government must call an election before end May
2022 and it still has most of the senior people who made the decision
to buy French who have spent the last few years explaining how it was
a good decision made by people who deserve re-election. Now it is
running on the line that certain naughty persons are doing even more
naughty things than was anticipated just a short time ago. So changes
are needed, please re-elect the same group of decision makers, the
change are worth the costs, as is a deliberate delay in responding to
this stated more urgent need. Expect official the story to evolve.

Given China's current naval program it could add more than 12
submarines in the next 15 years.

Xi is certainly acting as a virus, trying for exponential growth, so
Australia will field a force of submarines in 15 or so years time, made
longer by all the changes of plan over the last decade or so. Xi is 68,
and if still alive will be in his 80's when the submarines arrive. And
the ability to track submerged submarines from space is steadily
increasing. With of course the bigger they are the easier it is.

The reality is the Australian Chinese Language Media has its editorial
line overseen by Xi, like most to all Chinese Language Media
around the world, and enough people in enough electorates get
their news that way they can probably swing the Australian election if
they believe the material. At the moment Her Majesty's Loyal
Opposition is largely in tune with government China policy and has
memories of losing a senator in scandal because of China links.

Xi seems to work on the idea of massive punishment for even minor
disagreements or failure to obey even in the smallest detail, so
people have little choice on what to do. Xi has gone back to winner
take all which means a loss in Chinese politics can easily mean death
and purging of your entire family. So it is likely his successor will be
the same, even if it is a relative of Xi.

Australia has been out in front at times with actions like banning Huawei
in 2018 and calling for a pandemic origins investigation.

Xi has arranged that no Australian Government Minister has been
able to talk to their Chinese opposite numbers for over a couple of
years now, China is deliberately cutting back on imports from
Australia, even at a cost of significant economic pain for itself. It
currently cannot do that for iron ore but can do for just about
everything else. With Vale coming back online it can expect to
become the go to supplier of iron ore. Plus the reduction in demand
if Evergrande does collapse plus the state ordered steel production
reductions.

Given what Xi has done a whole lot of dumping of Chinese goods
into Australia seems probable, along with no student or tourist
arrivals to inflict economic pain. It is doubtful there will be any
extra hacking given how much is already being done.

The long term cost of all this is how much will it lock in attitudes,
becoming self perpetuating, making any change to something more
friendly impossible. It is noticeable learning English in China is now
being seen as a negative and how much Australian public opinion
has changed over China.

Geoffrey Sinclair
Remove the nb for email.