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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Another opportunity to make the 4pt

SubjectAuthor
* Another opportunity to make the 4ptTimothy Chow
+* Re: Another opportunity to make the 4ptRobert Zimmerman
|`- Re: Another opportunity to make the 4ptpeps...@gmail.com
`- Rollout: Another opportunity to make the 4ptTimothy Chow

1
Another opportunity to make the 4pt

<tuptc9$bpkk$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Another opportunity to make the 4pt
Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2023 09:38:17 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 14 Mar 2023 13:38 UTC

XGID=-aa--BCBAAA-bC--ac-e--b-B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

Re: Another opportunity to make the 4pt

<80b403c7-fb0b-4870-8aca-dbe8240e7ed8n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Another opportunity to make the 4pt
From: zimbrook...@gmail.com (Robert Zimmerman)
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 by: Robert Zimmerman - Tue, 14 Mar 2023 18:14 UTC

On Tuesday, March 14, 2023 at 9:38:20 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-aa--BCBAAA-bC--ac-e--b-B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X X X X | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 156 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 62
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Make the four point. Fewer shots and fewer blots for a point that is strengthened by the 5 and bar points.

Bob

Re: Another opportunity to make the 4pt

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Subject: Re: Another opportunity to make the 4pt
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 14 Mar 2023 20:17 UTC

On Tuesday, March 14, 2023 at 6:14:13 PM UTC, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
> On Tuesday, March 14, 2023 at 9:38:20 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=-aa--BCBAAA-bC--ac-e--b-B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O | | O O X |
> > | X O | | O O X |
> > | X O | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O X | | X X |
> > | O X X X X | | X X O O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 156 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 62
> >
> > ---
> > Tim Chow
> Make the four point. Fewer shots and fewer blots for a point that is strengthened by the 5 and bar points.

I think that, if you see it, it's fairly clear that 13/7 10/8 is best. It makes a powerful four prime that is difficult
to jump and prepares to extend the prime even further. It also leaves fewer shots than the other candidate plays.
Hitting doesn't achieve that much and helps the opponent to anchor in our inner board.

13/7 10/8, hoping for a "Not much to add to Paul's analysis..." to come with the rollout.

Paul

Rollout: Another opportunity to make the 4pt

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Another opportunity to make the 4pt
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2023 09:27:05 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 16 Mar 2023 13:27 UTC

XGID=-aa--BCBAAA-bC--ac-e--b-B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

I think there's a pretty good chance I'd hit if something like this
came up again, especially since XG hits in the variant below. But
I think the reasoning goes something like this. When the opponent
has rolled an awkward early 55 like this, priming is usually the
best game plan. The situation is complicated here by the fact that
O is aiming at our blot on the 8pt. Making the 4pt gives us an
excellent chance of making a killer five-prime from the 4pt to the
8pt, but only if we're missed. Is it worth the risk? XG says yes.
X will usually have a very strong cube, possibly D/P, if O does not
immediately hit.

The other priming play, 13/7 10/8, cleans up the blot, but it's not
so easy to make the 4pt after that.

1. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:+0.564
Player: 64.46% (G:21.71% B:1.20%)
Opponent: 35.54% (G:12.67% B:1.03%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.550..+0.578) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/16* eq:+0.487 (-0.077)
Player: 63.20% (G:19.69% B:1.52%)
Opponent: 36.80% (G:14.20% B:1.43%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (+0.469..+0.505) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/8 eq:+0.473 (-0.091)
Player: 62.03% (G:20.13% B:1.16%)
Opponent: 37.97% (G:13.20% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.456..+0.489) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aa--BCBA-A-bD--ac-e--b-B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 24/16* eq:+0.475
Player: 62.43% (G:17.54% B:1.13%)
Opponent: 37.57% (G:12.75% B:0.84%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.460..+0.489) - [94.2%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:+0.458 (-0.017)
Player: 61.75% (G:19.33% B:1.07%)
Opponent: 38.25% (G:13.16% B:0.98%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.444..+0.473) - [5.7%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7 10/8 eq:+0.443 (-0.031)
Player: 61.00% (G:19.31% B:0.99%)
Opponent: 39.00% (G:13.22% B:0.66%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.429..+0.458) - [0.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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