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interests / rec.games.backgammon / The safe play is ugly

SubjectAuthor
* The safe play is uglyTimothy Chow
`* Rollout: The safe play is uglyTimothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: The safe play is uglypeps...@gmail.com
  `- Re: Rollout: The safe play is uglypeps...@gmail.com

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The safe play is ugly

<tv4cc4$2ga3r$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: The safe play is ugly
Date: Sat, 18 Mar 2023 08:55:30 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 18 Mar 2023 12:55 UTC

XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE---aac-b-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X O | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: The safe play is ugly

<tv9kv4$3hile$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: The safe play is ugly
Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2023 08:52:52 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 20 Mar 2023 12:52 UTC

XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE---aac-b-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O | +---+
| X | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X O | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

This is another one of those positions where I had trouble judging
whether O's board was too strong to risk a direct shot.

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.307
Player: 67.98% (G:12.54% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 32.02% (G:7.36% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.299..+0.315) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.230 (-0.077)
Player: 65.38% (G:11.25% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 34.62% (G:7.45% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.222..+0.237) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.226 (-0.082)
Player: 64.94% (G:11.09% B:0.44%)
Opponent: 35.06% (G:6.96% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.218..+0.233) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE----bcb-b---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X O | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.227
Player: 65.28% (G:11.76% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 34.72% (G:7.82% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.219..+0.236) - [92.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.219 (-0.008)
Player: 64.67% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 35.33% (G:6.93% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.211..+0.226) - [7.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: The safe play is ugly

<8756832e-a1a5-4a4e-ba1f-16a95f26e35fn@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Rollout: The safe play is ugly
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Mon, 20 Mar 2023 13:24 UTC

On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 12:54:21 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE---aac-b-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O | +---+
> | X | | O O O | | 2 |
> | X | | O | +---+
> | X | | |
> | X | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> | O X X O | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 135 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 54
> This is another one of those positions where I had trouble judging
> whether O's board was too strong to risk a direct shot.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.307
> Player: 67.98% (G:12.54% B:0.68%)
> Opponent: 32.02% (G:7.36% B:0.19%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.299..+0.315) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.230 (-0.077)
> Player: 65.38% (G:11.25% B:0.53%)
> Opponent: 34.62% (G:7.45% B:0.18%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.222..+0.237) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.226 (-0.082)
> Player: 64.94% (G:11.09% B:0.44%)
> Opponent: 35.06% (G:6.96% B:0.15%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.218..+0.233) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE----bcb-b---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O | +---+
> | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
> | X | | O | +---+
> | X | | |
> | X | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> | O X X O | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 135 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 54
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.227
> Player: 65.28% (G:11.76% B:0.51%)
> Opponent: 34.72% (G:7.82% B:0.25%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.219..+0.236) - [92.6%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.219 (-0.008)
> Player: 64.67% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
> Opponent: 35.33% (G:6.93% B:0.20%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.211..+0.226) - [7.4%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

I Walted this one and correctly chose the safe play.
I wasn't confident, though.

Paul

Re: Rollout: The safe play is ugly

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Subject: Re: Rollout: The safe play is ugly
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Mon, 20 Mar 2023 13:29 UTC

On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 1:24:06 PM UTC, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 12:54:21 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE---aac-b-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O | | O O O | +---+
> > | X | | O O O | | 2 |
> > | X | | O | +---+
> > | X | | |
> > | X | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O | | X |
> > | O X X | | X X O |
> > | O X X O | | X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 135 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, O own cube
> > X to play 54
> > This is another one of those positions where I had trouble judging
> > whether O's board was too strong to risk a direct shot.
> >
> > 1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.307
> > Player: 67.98% (G:12.54% B:0.68%)
> > Opponent: 32.02% (G:7.36% B:0.19%)
> > Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.299..+0.315) - [100.0%]
> >
> > 2. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:+0.230 (-0.077)
> > Player: 65.38% (G:11.25% B:0.53%)
> > Opponent: 34.62% (G:7.45% B:0.18%)
> > Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.222..+0.237) - [0.0%]
> >
> > 3. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.226 (-0.082)
> > Player: 64.94% (G:11.09% B:0.44%)
> > Opponent: 35.06% (G:6.96% B:0.15%)
> > Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.218..+0.233) - [0.0%]
> >
> > ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> > Dice Seed: 271828
> > Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
> >
> > -------
> > Variant
> > -------
> >
> > XGID=--b--BDaB-B-cE----bcb-b---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O | | O O O | +---+
> > | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
> > | X | | O | +---+
> > | X | | |
> > | X | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O | | X |
> > | O X X | | X X O |
> > | O X X O | | X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 135 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, O own cube
> > X to play 54
> > 1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.227
> > Player: 65.28% (G:11.76% B:0.51%)
> > Opponent: 34.72% (G:7.82% B:0.25%)
> > Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.219..+0.236) - [92.6%]
> >
> > 2. Rollout¹ 10/6 10/5 eq:+0.219 (-0.008)
> > Player: 64.67% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
> > Opponent: 35.33% (G:6.93% B:0.20%)
> > Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.211..+0.226) - [7.4%]
> >
> > ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> > Dice Seed: 271828
> > Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
> I Walted this one and correctly chose the safe play.
> I wasn't confident, though.

Sorry, I misread. I chose the safe play -- 10/6 10/5
which is not the optimal choice.

Paul

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