Rocksolid Light

Welcome to novaBBS (click a section below)

mail  files  register  newsreader  groups  login

Message-ID:  

To err is human, but I can REALLY foul things up.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Dump two checkers?

SubjectAuthor
* Dump two checkers?Timothy Chow
+* Re: Dump two checkers?Robert Zimmerman
|`* Re: Dump two checkers?Stick Rice
| `- Re: Dump two checkers?Robert Zimmerman
`- Rollout: Dump two checkers?Timothy Chow

1
Dump two checkers?

<tv9l0t$3hile$2@dont-email.me>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=11638&group=rec.games.backgammon#11638

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!feeder.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Dump two checkers?
Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2023 08:53:48 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 22
Message-ID: <tv9l0t$3hile$2@dont-email.me>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Injection-Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2023 12:53:49 -0000 (UTC)
Injection-Info: reader01.eternal-september.org; posting-host="bc1433037c0fe8432fa24fff588c2652";
logging-data="3721902"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX19P06d0JoaOYMoPMqW6fZM0lhwWHGIaTNY="
User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:102.0) Gecko/20100101
Thunderbird/102.9.0
Cancel-Lock: sha1:R61m0yyOsYINU65IZNm5KaflBFQ=
Content-Language: en-US
 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 20 Mar 2023 12:53 UTC

XGID=---bBBEaB--B-B---abcbca---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| X X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Re: Dump two checkers?

<232626c0-36e5-4258-9344-3c864baaef64n@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=11643&group=rec.games.backgammon#11643

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:2fb:b0:746:7cc9:7cb8 with SMTP id a27-20020a05620a02fb00b007467cc97cb8mr1078854qko.9.1679322530802;
Mon, 20 Mar 2023 07:28:50 -0700 (PDT)
X-Received: by 2002:a05:620a:c82:b0:71f:b908:7b76 with SMTP id
q2-20020a05620a0c8200b0071fb9087b76mr7755248qki.2.1679322530540; Mon, 20 Mar
2023 07:28:50 -0700 (PDT)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!diablo1.usenet.blueworldhosting.com!usenet.blueworldhosting.com!peer02.iad!feed-me.highwinds-media.com!news.highwinds-media.com!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2023 07:28:50 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: <tv9l0t$3hile$2@dont-email.me>
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=67.247.240.200; posting-account=JNGsXQoAAAAxfJ0WMkx3LfmvPOGTnqzo
NNTP-Posting-Host: 67.247.240.200
References: <tv9l0t$3hile$2@dont-email.me>
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <232626c0-36e5-4258-9344-3c864baaef64n@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Dump two checkers?
From: zimbrook...@gmail.com (Robert Zimmerman)
Injection-Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2023 14:28:50 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-Received-Bytes: 2392
 by: Robert Zimmerman - Mon, 20 Mar 2023 14:28 UTC

On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 8:54:21 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=---bBBEaB--B-B---abcbca---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O O | +---+
> | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
> | | | O O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X X X O |
> | X X O | | X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 112 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 54
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

After dumping two checkers inside, O's plan will be to improve her board on this roll, sit back with the blot on her 18 point, and look for an opportunity to hit as we break the stripped outfield. We won't hit her for the next roll or two with the inner board sitting ducks. Play 11/6, 11/7 now. It's risky with 10 return shots on our blot on 7, and it makes an ugly stack on the 6, but we'll have a shot in O's board, not much trouble coming in, and maintain some outfield control. Probably worth the risk.
Over the board, I would have been all in on dumping the checkers, without a second thought.

11/6, 11/7

Bob

Re: Dump two checkers?

<4eb9c4ef-10fa-4714-96f2-c56bb0e8ee6en@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=11644&group=rec.games.backgammon#11644

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
X-Received: by 2002:a05:622a:1a25:b0:3dc:e08:4b9 with SMTP id f37-20020a05622a1a2500b003dc0e0804b9mr194323qtb.9.1679344075973;
Mon, 20 Mar 2023 13:27:55 -0700 (PDT)
X-Received: by 2002:a05:6214:5650:b0:56e:a4a7:b3a with SMTP id
mh16-20020a056214565000b0056ea4a70b3amr39555qvb.3.1679344075749; Mon, 20 Mar
2023 13:27:55 -0700 (PDT)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!usenet.blueworldhosting.com!diablo1.usenet.blueworldhosting.com!peer01.iad!feed-me.highwinds-media.com!news.highwinds-media.com!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2023 13:27:55 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: <232626c0-36e5-4258-9344-3c864baaef64n@googlegroups.com>
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=71.38.75.11; posting-account=yTK5ugoAAACRs3TgAz02kMublhPpKQBJ
NNTP-Posting-Host: 71.38.75.11
References: <tv9l0t$3hile$2@dont-email.me> <232626c0-36e5-4258-9344-3c864baaef64n@googlegroups.com>
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <4eb9c4ef-10fa-4714-96f2-c56bb0e8ee6en@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Dump two checkers?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
Injection-Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2023 20:27:55 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-Received-Bytes: 2805
 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 20 Mar 2023 20:27 UTC

On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 10:28:51 AM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
> On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 8:54:21 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=---bBBEaB--B-B---abcbca---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O | | O O O O | +---+
> > | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
> > | | | O O | +---+
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X |
> > | X X | | X X X O |
> > | X X O | | X X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 112 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, O own cube
> > X to play 54
> >
> > ---
> > Tim Chow
> After dumping two checkers inside, O's plan will be to improve her board on this roll, sit back with the blot on her 18 point, and look for an opportunity to hit as we break the stripped outfield. We won't hit her for the next roll or two with the inner board sitting ducks. Play 11/6, 11/7 now. It's risky with 10 return shots on our blot on 7, and it makes an ugly stack on the 6, but we'll have a shot in O's board, not much trouble coming in, and maintain some outfield control. Probably worth the risk.
> Over the board, I would have been all in on dumping the checkers, without a second thought.
>
> 11/6, 11/7
>
> Bob

If you're going to hit wouldn't 13/8 be a much better five?

The obvious variants here are the opp's inner board blot lifted and the opp's inner board blot covered.

Stick

Re: Dump two checkers?

<1a16b0bf-acbb-47d5-8cf8-5cb063fcefecn@googlegroups.com>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=11646&group=rec.games.backgammon#11646

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
X-Received: by 2002:ad4:4bab:0:b0:56e:a05a:2d92 with SMTP id i11-20020ad44bab000000b0056ea05a2d92mr113163qvw.2.1679351652944;
Mon, 20 Mar 2023 15:34:12 -0700 (PDT)
X-Received: by 2002:a05:622a:198b:b0:3e0:e195:ebe8 with SMTP id
u11-20020a05622a198b00b003e0e195ebe8mr318170qtc.8.1679351652724; Mon, 20 Mar
2023 15:34:12 -0700 (PDT)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!usenet.blueworldhosting.com!diablo1.usenet.blueworldhosting.com!peer03.iad!feed-me.highwinds-media.com!news.highwinds-media.com!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2023 15:34:12 -0700 (PDT)
In-Reply-To: <4eb9c4ef-10fa-4714-96f2-c56bb0e8ee6en@googlegroups.com>
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=67.247.240.200; posting-account=JNGsXQoAAAAxfJ0WMkx3LfmvPOGTnqzo
NNTP-Posting-Host: 67.247.240.200
References: <tv9l0t$3hile$2@dont-email.me> <232626c0-36e5-4258-9344-3c864baaef64n@googlegroups.com>
<4eb9c4ef-10fa-4714-96f2-c56bb0e8ee6en@googlegroups.com>
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <1a16b0bf-acbb-47d5-8cf8-5cb063fcefecn@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: Dump two checkers?
From: zimbrook...@gmail.com (Robert Zimmerman)
Injection-Date: Mon, 20 Mar 2023 22:34:12 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-Received-Bytes: 3159
 by: Robert Zimmerman - Mon, 20 Mar 2023 22:34 UTC

On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 4:27:58 PM UTC-4, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 10:28:51 AM UTC-4, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
> > On Monday, March 20, 2023 at 8:54:21 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > > XGID=---bBBEaB--B-B---abcbca---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
> > >
> > > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > | X O O | | O O O O | +---+
> > > | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
> > > | | | O O | +---+
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | |BAR| |
> > > | | | X |
> > > | | | X |
> > > | | | X |
> > > | X X | | X X X O |
> > > | X X O | | X X X O |
> > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > Pip count X: 112 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
> > > Cube: 2, O own cube
> > > X to play 54
> > >
> > > ---
> > > Tim Chow
> > After dumping two checkers inside, O's plan will be to improve her board on this roll, sit back with the blot on her 18 point, and look for an opportunity to hit as we break the stripped outfield. We won't hit her for the next roll or two with the inner board sitting ducks. Play 11/6, 11/7 now. It's risky with 10 return shots on our blot on 7, and it makes an ugly stack on the 6, but we'll have a shot in O's board, not much trouble coming in, and maintain some outfield control. Probably worth the risk.
> > Over the board, I would have been all in on dumping the checkers, without a second thought.
> >
> > 11/6, 11/7
> >
> > Bob
> If you're going to hit wouldn't 13/8 be a much better five?
>
> The obvious variants here are the opp's inner board blot lifted and the opp's inner board blot covered.
>
> Stick

On closer inspection, yeah. After 13/8 X would be favored to have a very good reply after being hit by O. Bon point.
Bob

Rollout: Dump two checkers?

<tvf1gi$l75k$1@dont-email.me>

  copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=11654&group=rec.games.backgammon#11654

  copy link   Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!feeder.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Dump two checkers?
Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2023 09:57:37 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 103
Message-ID: <tvf1gi$l75k$1@dont-email.me>
References: <tv9l0t$3hile$2@dont-email.me>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
Injection-Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2023 13:57:38 -0000 (UTC)
Injection-Info: dont-email.me; posting-host="5cc7f48e4f4c53c52744282c2134ad03";
logging-data="695476"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX19WgQZsHOXBi+kEIyuaOV3pfGr0mW/Gumc="
User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64; rv:102.0) Gecko/20100101
Thunderbird/102.9.0
Cancel-Lock: sha1:oAMFWRzSVuSPJGZzEUzp55YCZDs=
Content-Language: en-US
In-Reply-To: <tv9l0t$3hile$2@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 22 Mar 2023 13:57 UTC

XGID=---bBBEaB--B-B---abcbca---:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| X X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

I don't think I seriously considered dumping two checkers here.
But I played 11/7* 11/6, thinking that I didn't want to leave
three blots in the outfield if things went wrong. However, if
O hits back then X is going to be in big trouble regardless,
while 13/8 11/7* clearly has more upside if X is missed.

This is perhaps an instructive position for something that was
discussed here on r.g.b. recently, namely, does it matter if you
roll out a position with a missed double? Suppose that we change
the position by giving X the cube, and we assume that X missed a
double before the roll. Then we find that XG recommends 11/6 11/7*.

For the variant, I have strengthened O's board to the point where
XG favors dumping two.

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 11/7* eq:+0.492
Player: 74.71% (G:13.53% B:0.85%)
Opponent: 25.29% (G:6.45% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.486..+0.499) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/6 11/7* eq:+0.413 (-0.079)
Player: 71.01% (G:14.84% B:0.85%)
Opponent: 28.99% (G:5.69% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.407..+0.420) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/2 6/1 eq:+0.362 (-0.130)
Player: 70.01% (G:8.47% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 29.99% (G:4.31% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.356..+0.367) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---bBBEaB--B-B---abcbb-b--:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O | +---+
| X O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| X X O | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 112 O: 124 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 6/2 6/1 eq:+0.340
Player: 69.59% (G:7.07% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 30.41% (G:3.96% B:0.11%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.333..+0.346) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 11/7* eq:+0.322 (-0.018)
Player: 70.53% (G:9.25% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 29.47% (G:9.97% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.317..+0.327) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/6 11/7* eq:+0.298 (-0.042)
Player: 68.06% (G:11.41% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 31.94% (G:6.89% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.290..+0.305) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

1
server_pubkey.txt

rocksolid light 0.9.81
clearnet tor