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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 7-away/5-away cube action

SubjectAuthor
* 7-away/5-away cube actionTimothy Chow
+- Re: 7-away/5-away cube actionRobert Zimmerman
`- Rollout: 7-away/5-away cube actionTimothy Chow

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7-away/5-away cube action

<u041bd$s9e7$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 7-away/5-away cube action
Date: Thu, 30 Mar 2023 09:03:40 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 30 Mar 2023 13:03 UTC

XGID=-bC-CDB-----A-----Ac-cbbcA:2:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X O | | 4 |
| X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 91 X-O: 0-2/7
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: 7-away/5-away cube action

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Subject: Re: 7-away/5-away cube action
From: zimbrook...@gmail.com (Robert Zimmerman)
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 by: Robert Zimmerman - Thu, 30 Mar 2023 17:33 UTC

On Thursday, March 30, 2023 at 9:03:43 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-bC-CDB-----A-----Ac-cbbcA:2:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X | | O O O O O |
> | | | O O O O O |
> | | | O O O |
> | | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X X X | +---+
> | | | X X X X O | | 4 |
> | X | | X X X X O | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 105 O: 91 X-O: 0-2/7
> Cube: 4, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
I can see that O could win this pretty handily in the next sequence almost 30% of the time, and there are probably some more wins in there . Is it a double? If X sits on his hands, doesn't turn the cube, and loses, his chances after this game are 10%. NG. He should double. (I hope).

Rollout: 7-away/5-away cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 7-away/5-away cube action
Date: Sat, 1 Apr 2023 09:05:32 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 1 Apr 2023 13:05 UTC

XGID=-bC-CDB-----A-----Ac-cbbcA:2:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X O | | 4 |
| X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 91 X-O: 0-2/7
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

This is similar to the previous cube decision in some sense.
With this score and cube location, X is trigger-happy, and
his redoubling to 8 kills gammons. Even in the more extreme
position shown in the variant below, the rollout says to double.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 52.64% (G:9.98% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.36% (G:17.57% B:0.34%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 53.32% (G:8.36% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 46.68% (G:17.93% B:0.15%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.446 (-0.141)
Redouble/Take: +0.586
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.414)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.440..+0.451)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+0.580..+0.593)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-bC-CDB-----A-----Abbccc-A:2:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10

Score is X:0 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X O | | 4 |
| X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 105 O: 97 X-O: 0-2/7
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 41.56% (G:8.62% B:0.52%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 58.44% (G:27.81% B:1.55%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 41.52% (G:8.37% B:0.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 58.48% (G:24.89% B:0.78%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.151 (-0.011)
Redouble/Take: +0.161
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.839)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.145..+0.156)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+0.155..+0.168)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

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