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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit or cover?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit or cover?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Hit or cover?Robert Zimmerman
`- Rollout: Hit or cover?Timothy Chow

1
Hit or cover?

<u13jsv$2kqjj$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!feeder.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit or cover?
Date: Tue, 11 Apr 2023 08:30:22 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 11 Apr 2023 12:30 UTC

XGID=-a--aBC-CA--bD--ba-cbba-AA:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

Re: Hit or cover?

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Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Date: Tue, 11 Apr 2023 06:24:48 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: Re: Hit or cover?
From: zimbrook...@gmail.com (Robert Zimmerman)
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 by: Robert Zimmerman - Tue, 11 Apr 2023 13:24 UTC

On Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 8:30:27 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a--aBC-CA--bD--ba-cbba-AA:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X | | X | +---+
> | O X | | X X | | 2 |
> | O X X | | X X O O | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 162 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 42
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
I would hit. Being 20 points behind and with O's forward position quite strong, to play passively covering the blot on 9 doesn't work. The hit has some tempo value, and being hit back may work out to our advantage in terms of hitting in O's inner board and/or anchoring.
Bob

Rollout: Hit or cover?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit or cover?
Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2023 08:20:23 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 13 Apr 2023 12:20 UTC

XGID=-a--aBC-CA--bD--ba-cbba-AA:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

When behind in the race, one does not wish to race, but should one
attack or prime? It depends on the situation. Priming is often
more effective, but hitting can be indicated if it gains an important
tempo. Here I hit for that reason (as did Bob, I see), but XG hates
it. X is, after all, outboarded. In the variant below, XG 3-ply hits,
although a rollout narrowly overturns that verdict.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/9 eq:-0.132
Player: 43.14% (G:11.61% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 56.86% (G:28.99% B:0.99%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.144..-0.121) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/4* eq:-0.229 (-0.097)
Player: 41.28% (G:12.57% B:1.00%)
Opponent: 58.72% (G:32.38% B:3.34%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.241..-0.218) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--aBC-CA--bD--b-acbba-AA:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/9 eq:-0.196
Player: 41.56% (G:11.15% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 58.44% (G:30.29% B:1.18%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.206..-0.185) - [99.1%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/23 8/4* eq:-0.218 (-0.022)
Player: 41.89% (G:13.33% B:1.16%)
Opponent: 58.11% (G:32.36% B:3.68%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.232..-0.203) - [0.9%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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