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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: 7-away/7-away re-re-cube action

SubjectAuthor
* 7-away/7-away re-re-cube actionTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: 7-away/7-away re-re-cube actionTimothy Chow

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7-away/7-away re-re-cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 7-away/7-away re-re-cube action
Date: Wed, 26 Apr 2023 10:33:55 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 26 Apr 2023 14:33 UTC

XGID=aB-C-BCA---B-A--aaAbcc-bb-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10

Score is X:0 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 4 |
| X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 87 X-O: 0-0/7
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 7-away/7-away re-re-cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 7-away/7-away re-re-cube action
Date: Fri, 28 Apr 2023 08:16:55 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 28 Apr 2023 12:16 UTC

XGID=aB-C-BCA---B-A--aaAbcc-bb-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10

Score is X:0 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 4 |
| X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 87 X-O: 0-0/7
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

This is a massive pass for money, and I thought that since X wins
a sizable number of gammons, I shouldn't kill those gammons by
recubing to 8. But according to XG, my position isn't as strong
as I thought it was---it says that this is barely a pass ATS, and
nowhere near TG. I have only 20 hitting rolls, and if I don't hit,
I usually will be running the straggler on the 18pt, and risking
having the game turn around.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 76.61% (G:18.71% B:1.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.39% (G:3.21% B:0.13%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.43% (G:15.41% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.57% (G:2.47% B:0.04%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.895 (-0.105)
Redouble/Take: +1.046 (+0.046)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.890..+0.899)
Confidence Double: ± 0.005 (+1.041..+1.052)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aB-C-BCA--B--A--aaAbcc-bb-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10

Score is X:0 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 4 |
| X X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 97 O: 87 X-O: 0-0/7
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 80.25% (G:21.87% B:1.28%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.75% (G:2.38% B:0.14%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.17% (G:18.96% B:0.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.83% (G:1.87% B:0.02%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.981 (-0.019)
Redouble/Take: +1.189 (+0.189)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.977..+0.986)
Confidence Double: ± 0.005 (+1.184..+1.195)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

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