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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar

SubjectAuthor
* Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the barTimothy Chow
+* Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the barRobert Zimmerman
|`* Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the barpeps...@gmail.com
| `* Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the barRobert Zimmerman
|  `- Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the barpeps...@gmail.com
+- Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the barStick Rice
`- Rollout: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the barTimothy Chow

1
Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar
Date: Fri, 28 Apr 2023 08:17:52 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 28 Apr 2023 12:17 UTC

XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar

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Subject: Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar
From: zimbrook...@gmail.com (Robert Zimmerman)
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 by: Robert Zimmerman - Fri, 28 Apr 2023 17:06 UTC

On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 8:17:55 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O X |
> | X O | | O X |
> | X O | | O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | |
> | O | | |
> | O | | X X X X |
> | O | | X X O X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
X is ahead on position and race, a little ahead on threats to hit or improve position substantially with doubles. But without doubles there isn't much attacking to happen in the next roll and O has a little time to anchor. I think it would be a pass if X had any more development in the outfield or with the back checkers off of the ace point.
Bob

Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar

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Subject: Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Sat, 29 Apr 2023 20:52 UTC

On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 8:17:55 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O X |
> | X O | | O X |
> | X O | | O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | |
> | O | | |
> | O | | X X X X |
> | O | | X X O X O X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

You gave it away with your title. Not on the bar, not a double by far. Very reference like.

Stick

Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar

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Subject: Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 30 Apr 2023 00:46 UTC

On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 6:06:42 PM UTC+1, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
> On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 8:17:55 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O | | O X |
> > | X O | | O X |
> > | X O | | O |
> > | X O | | O |
> > | X | | O |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | O | | |
> > | O | | |
> > | O | | X X X X |
> > | O | | X X O X O X |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X on roll, cube action
> >
> > ---
> > Tim Chow
> X is ahead on position and race, a little ahead on threats to hit or improve position substantially with doubles. But without doubles there isn't much attacking to happen in the next roll and O has a little time to anchor. I think it would be a pass if X had any more development in the outfield or with the back checkers off of the ace point.
> Bob

So it's not a pass but what is it? Or rather, what did you think it was before Stick opined?
I probably would have said D/T myself but the take seems much clearer than the double.

Paul

Rollout: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar
Date: Sun, 30 Apr 2023 08:25:41 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 30 Apr 2023 12:25 UTC

XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O | | X X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

A four-point board is a big asset in the opening when the opponent
has no structure. But without anything else, it's not enough for
a double. Any improvement and it gets close (see variant).

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 58.68% (G:25.08% B:0.49%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.32% (G:9.79% B:0.45%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.85% (G:24.64% B:0.42%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.15% (G:9.72% B:0.45%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.454
Double/Take: +0.335 (-0.119)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.546)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.9%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.440..+0.468)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.314..+0.357)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BaBaBB----AdD---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 141 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 61.49% (G:28.31% B:0.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.51% (G:9.05% B:0.41%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.64% (G:29.13% B:0.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.36% (G:9.17% B:0.44%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.574
Double/Take: +0.563 (-0.011)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.426)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.5%

Rollout:
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.565..+0.582)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.549..+0.576)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar

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Subject: Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar
From: zimbrook...@gmail.com (Robert Zimmerman)
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 by: Robert Zimmerman - Sun, 30 Apr 2023 19:27 UTC

On Saturday, April 29, 2023 at 8:46:16 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 6:06:42 PM UTC+1, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
> > On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 8:17:55 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > > XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> > >
> > > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > | X O | | O X |
> > > | X O | | O X |
> > > | X O | | O |
> > > | X O | | O |
> > > | X | | O |
> > > | |BAR| |
> > > | | | |
> > > | O | | |
> > > | O | | |
> > > | O | | X X X X |
> > > | O | | X X O X O X |
> > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
> > > Cube: 1
> > > X on roll, cube action
> > >
> > > ---
> > > Tim Chow
> > X is ahead on position and race, a little ahead on threats to hit or improve position substantially with doubles. But without doubles there isn't much attacking to happen in the next roll and O has a little time to anchor.. I think it would be a pass if X had any more development in the outfield or with the back checkers off of the ace point.
> > Bob
> So it's not a pass but what is it? Or rather, what did you think it was before Stick opined?
> I probably would have said D/T myself but the take seems much clearer than the double.
>
> Paul
I thought it was a double. In retrospect, I should have paid more attention to my own words: "But without doubles there isn't much attacking to happen in the next roll...". Not enough market losing sequences.
Bob

Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar

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Subject: Re: Early blitz cube, except O isn't on the bar
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
Injection-Date: Sun, 30 Apr 2023 21:31:46 +0000
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 30 Apr 2023 21:31 UTC

On Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 8:27:30 PM UTC+1, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
> On Saturday, April 29, 2023 at 8:46:16 PM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 6:06:42 PM UTC+1, Robert Zimmerman wrote:
> > > On Friday, April 28, 2023 at 8:17:55 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > > > XGID=-BaBaBB-----dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> > > >
> > > > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > > | X O | | O X |
> > > > | X O | | O X |
> > > > | X O | | O |
> > > > | X O | | O |
> > > > | X | | O |
> > > > | |BAR| |
> > > > | | | |
> > > > | O | | |
> > > > | O | | |
> > > > | O | | X X X X |
> > > > | O | | X X O X O X |
> > > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > > Pip count X: 143 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
> > > > Cube: 1
> > > > X on roll, cube action
> > > >
> > > > ---
> > > > Tim Chow
> > > X is ahead on position and race, a little ahead on threats to hit or improve position substantially with doubles. But without doubles there isn't much attacking to happen in the next roll and O has a little time to anchor. I think it would be a pass if X had any more development in the outfield or with the back checkers off of the ace point.
> > > Bob
> > So it's not a pass but what is it? Or rather, what did you think it was before Stick opined?
> > I probably would have said D/T myself but the take seems much clearer than the double.
> >
> > Paul
> I thought it was a double. In retrospect, I should have paid more attention to my own words
....

On the contrary. I think everyone should ignore their own words. That way, you're covered
whatever happens. If your initial words were right, you've said something wise. OTOH, if
your initial words were wrong, you were wise to ignore them.

Paul

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