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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Early game 33 to play

SubjectAuthor
* Early game 33 to playTimothy Chow
+- Re: Early game 33 to playStick Rice
`* Rollout: Early game 33 to playTimothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Early game 33 to playStick Rice

1
Early game 33 to play

<u2jgjk$30rvc$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Early game 33 to play
Date: Sat, 29 Apr 2023 12:28:34 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 29 Apr 2023 16:28 UTC

XGID=----b-E-Da--dD---b-dbB----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

Re: Early game 33 to play

<c657005b-d284-43ff-8dac-47ed24732a10n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Early game 33 to play
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Sat, 29 Apr 2023 20:54 UTC

On Saturday, April 29, 2023 at 12:28:39 PM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=----b-E-Da--dD---b-dbB----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X O |
> | O O X | | X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 156 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 33
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Go, what else.

Stick

Rollout: Early game 33 to play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Early game 33 to play
Date: Mon, 1 May 2023 09:38:21 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 1 May 2023 13:38 UTC

XGID=----b-E-Da--dD---b-dbB----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 156 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

In the first couple of rolls of the game, typical uses of a 33 are to
advance the anchor from the 24pt, to unstack the midpoint, or to make
the 5pt and/or 3pt. So here we might look at unstacking some of our
three tall points. Always make the 5pt, right? However, X is now
considerably ahead in the pip count, while O has made an advanced
anchor, so running is the main game plan. Advancing to the 15pt also
puts some pressure on O's blot.

1. Rollout¹ 21/15(2) eq:+0.318
Player: 59.01% (G:5.82% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 41.00% (G:6.57% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.305..+0.330) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/18(2) 8/5(2) eq:+0.251 (-0.067)
Player: 57.16% (G:8.14% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 42.84% (G:7.19% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.241..+0.261) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/18(2) 13/10(2) eq:+0.183 (-0.134)
Player: 55.47% (G:8.33% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 44.53% (G:9.57% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.170..+0.196) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/5(2) 6/3(2) eq:+0.133 (-0.185)
Player: 53.66% (G:9.15% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 46.34% (G:7.97% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.121..+0.145) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 21/18(2) 6/3(2) eq:+0.122 (-0.195)
Player: 53.73% (G:7.62% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 46.27% (G:9.10% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.111..+0.134) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 8/5(2) eq:+0.110 (-0.208)
Player: 53.35% (G:9.72% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 46.65% (G:9.53% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.098..+0.122) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Early game 33 to play

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Early game 33 to play
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 1 May 2023 21:35 UTC

On Monday, May 1, 2023 at 9:38:24 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=----b-E-Da--dD---b-dbB----:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X O |
> | O O X | | X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 156 O: 160 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 33
> In the first couple of rolls of the game, typical uses of a 33 are to
> advance the anchor from the 24pt, to unstack the midpoint, or to make
> the 5pt and/or 3pt. So here we might look at unstacking some of our
> three tall points. Always make the 5pt, right? However, X is now
> considerably ahead in the pip count, while O has made an advanced
> anchor, so running is the main game plan. Advancing to the 15pt also
> puts some pressure on O's blot.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 21/15(2) eq:+0.318
> Player: 59.01% (G:5.82% B:0.17%)
> Opponent: 41.00% (G:6.57% B:0.18%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.305..+0.330) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 21/18(2) 8/5(2) eq:+0.251 (-0.067)
> Player: 57.16% (G:8.14% B:0.29%)
> Opponent: 42.84% (G:7.19% B:0.24%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.241..+0.261) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 21/18(2) 13/10(2) eq:+0.183 (-0.134)
> Player: 55.47% (G:8.33% B:0.30%)
> Opponent: 44.53% (G:9.57% B:0.31%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.170..+0.196) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 8/5(2) 6/3(2) eq:+0.133 (-0.185)
> Player: 53.66% (G:9.15% B:0.30%)
> Opponent: 46.34% (G:7.97% B:0.24%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.121..+0.145) - [0.0%]
>
> 5. Rollout¹ 21/18(2) 6/3(2) eq:+0.122 (-0.195)
> Player: 53.73% (G:7.62% B:0.25%)
> Opponent: 46.27% (G:9.10% B:0.28%)
> Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.111..+0.134) - [0.0%]
>
> 6. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 8/5(2) eq:+0.110 (-0.208)
> Player: 53.35% (G:9.72% B:0.30%)
> Opponent: 46.65% (G:9.53% B:0.31%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.098..+0.122) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Playing 15 against 1 (or two or three obv) is almost always the right recipe regardless of what the race is.

Stick

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