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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Whack the blot or play safe?

SubjectAuthor
* Whack the blot or play safe?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Whack the blot or play safe?Stick Rice
+- Re: Whack the blot or play safe?Robert Zimmerman
`- Rollout: Whack the blot or play safe?Timothy Chow

1
Whack the blot or play safe?

<u33au6$2drrc$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Whack the blot or play safe?
Date: Fri, 5 May 2023 12:29:57 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 5 May 2023 16:29 UTC

XGID=-B-AB-BbB--BaB---Bbcbab-b-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O |
| X X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 103 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

Re: Whack the blot or play safe?

<b9da6b6d-c9d5-4be4-92b4-ad1cef9b021cn@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Whack the blot or play safe?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Sat, 6 May 2023 04:08 UTC

On Friday, May 5, 2023 at 12:30:00 PM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-B-AB-BbB--BaB---Bbcbab-b-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O O O O O |
> | X X O | | O O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X X O | | X X X |
> | O X X O | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 123 O: 103 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 31
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Does anyone know what the dmp play clearly is? Me neither, so play safe.

Stick

Re: Whack the blot or play safe?

<9cb33b60-12f5-499a-b3f1-52dd0f402f8bn@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Whack the blot or play safe?
From: zimbrook...@gmail.com (Robert Zimmerman)
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 by: Robert Zimmerman - Sat, 6 May 2023 15:55 UTC

On Friday, May 5, 2023 at 12:30:00 PM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-B-AB-BbB--BaB---Bbcbab-b-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X X O | | O O O O O |
> | X X O | | O O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X X O | | X X X |
> | O X X O | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 123 O: 103 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 31
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
You're pretty likely to have another chance at whacking a blot when your inner board is better prepared. Right now O has the better board. I think the timing favors X as long as O doesn't roll doubles.
Bob

Rollout: Whack the blot or play safe?

<u38d8q$3did7$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Whack the blot or play safe?
Date: Sun, 7 May 2023 10:40:23 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 7 May 2023 14:40 UTC

XGID=-B-AB-BbB--BaB---Bbcbab-b-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O |
| X X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 103 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

Hitting leaves *two* blots in the outfield. Even though 13/12* 13/10
duplicates O's 3s and 5s to hit back, XG says that it's too risky.

The variant shows that if the roll were 41 instead of 31, it would be
a different story.

1. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/3 eq:-0.226
Player: 43.33% (G:5.23% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 56.67% (G:11.83% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.237..-0.214) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/12* eq:-0.329 (-0.103)
Player: 43.45% (G:11.61% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 56.55% (G:31.63% B:0.84%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.346..-0.313) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 4/3 4/1 eq:-0.396 (-0.170)
Player: 38.23% (G:2.75% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 61.77% (G:9.38% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.406..-0.385) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/2 eq:-0.431 (-0.205)
Player: 38.11% (G:4.39% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 61.89% (G:10.94% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.443..-0.420) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-B-AB-BbB--BaB---Bbcbab-b-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O O |
| X X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 103 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 17/12* eq:-0.219
Player: 45.54% (G:10.57% B:0.47%)
Opponent: 54.46% (G:27.31% B:0.85%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.230..-0.208) - [98.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/12* 12/8 eq:-0.237 (-0.018)
Player: 44.51% (G:10.94% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 55.49% (G:27.30% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.248..-0.226) - [1.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/2 3/2 eq:-0.251 (-0.032)
Player: 42.31% (G:4.71% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 57.69% (G:10.13% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.261..-0.241) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

1
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