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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Volunteer a shot, or dump?

SubjectAuthor
* Volunteer a shot, or dump?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Volunteer a shot, or dump?Timothy Chow

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Volunteer a shot, or dump?

<u3orj6$2b2om$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=12015&group=rec.games.backgammon#12015

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Volunteer a shot, or dump?
Date: Sat, 13 May 2023 16:23:01 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 13 May 2023 20:23 UTC

Stick solved this problem just from reading the subject line.

XGID=-A-BBbBBB---bB---b-d-B-cb-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Volunteer a shot, or dump?

<u3ta4g$32a1a$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Volunteer a shot, or dump?
Date: Mon, 15 May 2023 08:55:43 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 15 May 2023 12:55 UTC

XGID=-A-BBbBBB---bB---b-d-B-cb-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O | +---+
| X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

Dumping looks pretty ugly, but O's position is inflexible and she
might be leaving a shot next turn. In the variant below, O has a
blot in her board, and 13/4 duplicates O's aces to hit and to cover.

1. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:-0.091
Player: 52.90% (G:10.52% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 47.10% (G:7.63% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.099..-0.084) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/3 7/2 eq:-0.154 (-0.063)
Player: 51.04% (G:10.49% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 48.96% (G:9.32% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.162..-0.147) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/2 6/1 eq:-0.198 (-0.107)
Player: 49.85% (G:8.69% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 50.15% (G:9.29% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.206..-0.191) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:-0.201 (-0.109)
Player: 48.98% (G:10.29% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 51.02% (G:8.11% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.208..-0.193) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:-0.233 (-0.142)
Player: 48.07% (G:8.43% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 51.93% (G:6.81% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.241..-0.226) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-A-BBbBBB---bB---b-daB-bb-:1:-1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O O | +---+
| X O | | O X O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X X | | X O X X |
| O X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:-0.211
Player: 48.91% (G:9.40% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 51.09% (G:8.42% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.217..-0.205) - [84.5%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/3 eq:-0.215 (-0.004)
Player: 48.94% (G:9.43% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 51.06% (G:10.45% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.221..-0.210) - [15.5%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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