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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 33 is usually luckier than this

SubjectAuthor
* 33 is usually luckier than thisTimothy Chow
+* Re: 33 is usually luckier than thispeps...@gmail.com
|`* Re: 33 is usually luckier than thisStick Rice
| `- Re: 33 is usually luckier than thispeps...@gmail.com
`* Rollout: 33 is usually luckier than thisTimothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: 33 is usually luckier than thispeps...@gmail.com

1
33 is usually luckier than this

<u3ta8o$32a1a$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 33 is usually luckier than this
Date: Mon, 15 May 2023 08:57:59 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 15 May 2023 12:57 UTC

XGID=---b-BDBB-A-bB-a-b-cbc--B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

Re: 33 is usually luckier than this

<7e52de61-4c01-442c-9319-9bf25cf029e3n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: 33 is usually luckier than this
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Mon, 15 May 2023 14:39 UTC

On Monday, May 15, 2023 at 1:59:34 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=---b-BDBB-A-bB-a-b-cbc--B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O X |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> | O X X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 148 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 33

I think I know this one (but of course very far from sure).
The point is that we shouldn't fall so much in love with our prime
that we maintain it at the expense of our midpoint.
Leaving the midpoint would be a big mistake here, as it gives the
opponent free rein to use her own midpoint checkers to obtain
a crushing prime against our acepoint.

My play is 7/4(2) 8/5(2) which looks clearly best among the midpoint-preserving
plays. 8/5(2) is a positional concession but the upside is that we have some good
attacking possibilities if the opponent is forced to leave our 3 point with one checker.

8/4(2) 7/5(2)

Paul

Re: 33 is usually luckier than this

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Subject: Re: 33 is usually luckier than this
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Tue, 16 May 2023 20:46 UTC

On Monday, May 15, 2023 at 10:39:47 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Monday, May 15, 2023 at 1:59:34 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=---b-BDBB-A-bB-a-b-cbc--B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O | | O O O X |
> > | X O | | O O O X |
> > | | | O O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X |
> > | O X X | | X X O |
> > | O X X X | | X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 148 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 33
> I think I know this one (but of course very far from sure).
> The point is that we shouldn't fall so much in love with our prime
> that we maintain it at the expense of our midpoint.
> Leaving the midpoint would be a big mistake here, as it gives the
> opponent free rein to use her own midpoint checkers to obtain
> a crushing prime against our acepoint.
>
> My play is 7/4(2) 8/5(2) which looks clearly best among the midpoint-preserving
> plays. 8/5(2) is a positional concession but the upside is that we have some good
> attacking possibilities if the opponent is forced to leave our 3 point with one checker.
>
> 8/4(2) 7/5(2)
>
> Paul

If you're going to play 7/4(2) wouldn't 10/4 with the last two threes be far better as far as keeping the midpoint plays go? It picks up the blot, it keeps the prime, etc...

Stick

Re: 33 is usually luckier than this

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Subject: Re: 33 is usually luckier than this
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 16 May 2023 21:47 UTC

On Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 9:46:38 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Monday, May 15, 2023 at 10:39:47 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > On Monday, May 15, 2023 at 1:59:34 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > > XGID=---b-BDBB-A-bB-a-b-cbc--B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
> > >
> > > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > | X O O | | O O O X |
> > > | X O | | O O O X |
> > > | | | O O |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | |BAR| |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | X |
> > > | | | X |
> > > | O X X | | X X O |
> > > | O X X X | | X X O |
> > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > Pip count X: 148 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
> > > Cube: 1
> > > X to play 33
> > I think I know this one (but of course very far from sure).
> > The point is that we shouldn't fall so much in love with our prime
> > that we maintain it at the expense of our midpoint.
> > Leaving the midpoint would be a big mistake here, as it gives the
> > opponent free rein to use her own midpoint checkers to obtain
> > a crushing prime against our acepoint.
> >
> > My play is 7/4(2) 8/5(2) which looks clearly best among the midpoint-preserving
> > plays. 8/5(2) is a positional concession but the upside is that we have some good
> > attacking possibilities if the opponent is forced to leave our 3 point with one checker.
> >
> > 8/4(2) 7/5(2)
> >
> > Paul
> If you're going to play 7/4(2) wouldn't 10/4 with the last two threes be far better as far as keeping the midpoint plays go? It picks up the blot, it keeps the prime, etc...
>
> Stick
Yes, you're right. I missed that. When am I going to get one of these problems right???

Paul

Rollout: 33 is usually luckier than this

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 33 is usually luckier than this
Date: Wed, 17 May 2023 08:13:08 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 17 May 2023 12:13 UTC

XGID=---b-BDBB-A-bB-a-b-cbc--B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 148 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

I didn't consider volunteering a shot by slotting the front of the
prime, since I didn't think my position was that desperate yet. For
comparison, see the variant, in which X's anchor is further forward.
Although XG still favors 13/10 13/4 in the variant, it thinks the
decision is much closer.

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/4 eq:-0.480
Player: 38.99% (G:10.19% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 61.01% (G:20.98% B:1.52%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.494..-0.466) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7(2) eq:-0.543 (-0.063)
Player: 37.04% (G:9.09% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 62.96% (G:20.73% B:1.02%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.555..-0.530) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/4 7/4(2) eq:-0.553 (-0.073)
Player: 36.88% (G:9.21% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 63.12% (G:20.53% B:0.83%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.564..-0.542) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 7/4(2) eq:-0.634 (-0.154)
Player: 34.94% (G:8.56% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 65.06% (G:20.50% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.647..-0.620) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---b-BDBB-A-bB-a-b-cbcB---:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/4 eq:-0.022
Player: 49.41% (G:12.02% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 50.59% (G:12.50% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.032..-0.013) - [99.5%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 7/4(2) eq:-0.039 (-0.017)
Player: 48.95% (G:11.14% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 51.05% (G:11.41% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.047..-0.031) - [0.4%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7(2) eq:-0.045 (-0.023)
Player: 48.75% (G:11.42% B:0.45%)
Opponent: 51.25% (G:11.32% B:0.43%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.055..-0.035) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 7/4(2) eq:-0.059 (-0.037)
Player: 48.41% (G:10.15% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 51.59% (G:9.84% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.067..-0.051) - [0.0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: 33 is usually luckier than this

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Subject: Re: Rollout: 33 is usually luckier than this
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Wed, 17 May 2023 15:26 UTC

On Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 1:15:00 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=---b-BDBB-A-bB-a-b-cbc--B-:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O X |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> | O X X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 148 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 33
> I didn't consider volunteering a shot by slotting the front of the
> prime, since I didn't think my position was that desperate yet. For
> comparison, see the variant, in which X's anchor is further forward.
> Although XG still favors 13/10 13/4 in the variant, it thinks the
> decision is much closer.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/4 eq:-0.480
> Player: 38.99% (G:10.19% B:0.65%)
> Opponent: 61.01% (G:20.98% B:1.52%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.494..-0.466) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/7(2) eq:-0.543 (-0.063)
> Player: 37.04% (G:9.09% B:0.46%)
> Opponent: 62.96% (G:20.73% B:1.02%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.555..-0.530) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 10/4 7/4(2) eq:-0.553 (-0.073)
> Player: 36.88% (G:9.21% B:0.34%)
> Opponent: 63.12% (G:20.53% B:0.83%)
> Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.564..-0.542) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 7/4(2) eq:-0.634 (-0.154)
> Player: 34.94% (G:8.56% B:0.41%)
> Opponent: 65.06% (G:20.50% B:0.76%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.647..-0.620) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=---b-BDBB-A-bB-a-b-cbcB---:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O X |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> | O X X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 144 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 33
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/4 eq:-0.022
> Player: 49.41% (G:12.02% B:0.49%)
> Opponent: 50.59% (G:12.50% B:0.50%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.032..-0.013) - [99.5%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 10/4 7/4(2) eq:-0.039 (-0.017)
> Player: 48.95% (G:11.14% B:0.38%)
> Opponent: 51.05% (G:11.41% B:0.41%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.047..-0.031) - [0.4%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 13/7(2) eq:-0.045 (-0.023)
> Player: 48.75% (G:11.42% B:0.45%)
> Opponent: 51.25% (G:11.32% B:0.43%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.055..-0.035) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 13/10(2) 7/4(2) eq:-0.059 (-0.037)
> Player: 48.41% (G:10.15% B:0.39%)
> Opponent: 51.59% (G:9.84% B:0.38%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.067..-0.051) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

If we realise that keeping the midpoint is wrong, then there are duplication
considerations. If we break the midpoint then the opponent has excellent aces to
prepare to strengthen their prime even further.
So conceding a shot on the ace point is such a big concession as it appears..

Paul

1
server_pubkey.txt

rocksolid light 0.9.81
clearnet tor