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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Run?

SubjectAuthor
* Run?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Run?Timothy Chow

1
Run?

<u4569f$95aa$1@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Run?
Date: Thu, 18 May 2023 08:39:09 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 18 May 2023 12:39 UTC

XGID=-b---BE-C---eC---a-cbb--B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Run?

<u4aj11$13530$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Run?
Date: Sat, 20 May 2023 09:47:12 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 20 May 2023 13:47 UTC

XGID=-b---BE-C---eC---a-cbb--B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 157 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

I didn't run because I was afraid of getting hit, and 8/2 6/2 seemed to
be a constructive alternative. But X is ahead in the race and O does
not have much material in the zone for attacking. See the variant for
comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 24/14 eq:-0.130
Player: 47.14% (G:14.61% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 52.86% (G:17.65% B:0.71%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.144..-0.117) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:-0.227 (-0.096)
Player: 44.05% (G:15.63% B:1.28%)
Opponent: 55.95% (G:19.31% B:1.10%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.241..-0.213) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/18 13/9 eq:-0.339 (-0.208)
Player: 42.78% (G:13.87% B:0.91%)
Opponent: 57.22% (G:22.05% B:1.26%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.353..-0.324) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-b---BE-C---dC---a-ccb--B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X |
| X | | O O O X |
| X | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 151 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/2 eq:-0.275
Player: 43.32% (G:14.82% B:0.90%)
Opponent: 56.68% (G:20.78% B:1.19%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.284..-0.265) - [84.1%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/14 eq:-0.282 (-0.007)
Player: 44.68% (G:12.63% B:0.81%)
Opponent: 55.32% (G:22.38% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.293..-0.271) - [15.9%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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