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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Cash or play on?

Cash or play on?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Cash or play on?
Date: Sun, 21 May 2023 08:56:23 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 21 May 2023 12:56 UTC

Note that X has 7 checkers borne off already.

XGID=-BCBaa------A-----acbbbc--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| X | | O O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 26 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: Cash or play on?

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Subject: Re: Cash or play on?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 21 May 2023 14:41 UTC

On Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 1:57:50 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> Note that X has 7 checkers borne off already.
>
> XGID=-BCBaa------A-----acbbbc--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O O O O |
> | | | O O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X | +---+
> | | | X X X | | 2 |
> | X | | O O X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 26 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

Tim can be tricky so don't let his titles fool you.
The possibility that the position is D/T or ND/T
should at least be considered.

I think the cash-or-not question is unclear so
I would rule out D/T and ND/T.

I 'd make the opponent about 50% to hit and 50% to win
from there for a winning probability of 25%.

Do we get a gammon as much as 50% of the time to justify
a play-on?
No. The gammon race looks very even with us being about 5 rolls
away from gammoning and the opponent about 5 rolls away from
saving the gammon.
But, because of the hitting possibility, an even gammon race makes us
underdogs for the gammon because, given the greatly advantageous
situation where we're not hit, we only score a gammon 50% of the time
from there.

D/P for me but I won't be totally amazed if Tricky Tim shows us a take

Paul

Re: Cash or play on?

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Subject: Re: Cash or play on?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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by: Stick Rice - Sun, 21 May 2023 19:29 UTC

On Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 10:42:02 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 1:57:50 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > Note that X has 7 checkers borne off already.
> >
> > XGID=-BCBaa------A-----acbbbc--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O | | O O O O O |
> > | | | O O O O O |
> > | | | O O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X | +---+
> > | | | X X X | | 2 |
> > | X | | O O X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 26 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> >
> > ---
> > Tim Chow
> Tim can be tricky so don't let his titles fool you.
> The possibility that the position is D/T or ND/T
> should at least be considered.
>
> I think the cash-or-not question is unclear so
> I would rule out D/T and ND/T.
>
> I 'd make the opponent about 50% to hit and 50% to win
> from there for a winning probability of 25%.
>
> Do we get a gammon as much as 50% of the time to justify
> a play-on?
> No. The gammon race looks very even with us being about 5 rolls
> away from gammoning and the opponent about 5 rolls away from
> saving the gammon.
> But, because of the hitting possibility, an even gammon race makes us
> underdogs for the gammon because, given the greatly advantageous
> situation where we're not hit, we only score a gammon 50% of the time
> from there.
>
> D/P for me but I won't be totally amazed if Tricky Tim shows us a take
>
> Paul

We have 12 gin numbers immediately [66 55 44 33 65 64 63 54 ], the eights [62 53 22], 5 games of which we win 3.5 games, the sevens [61 52 43] of which we win roughly 3.5 games and the remaining 13 numbers where we're still a clear favorite because we haven't been hit yet and we have seven men off. So that's 21 games + at least 8 if not more games making it the biggest pass ever. (We haven't even addressed gammon losses yet) But quite honestly I would do none of these calculations OtB, I'd look at the position and roll. This is clearly TG using my most formidable backgammon skill, eyesight..

Stick

Re: Cash or play on?

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Subject: Re: Cash or play on?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 21 May 2023 22:09 UTC

On Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 8:29:12 PM UTC+1, Stick Rice wrote:
....This is clearly TG using my most formidable backgammon skill, eyesight.

OTOH, Axel's most formidable backgammon skill is Isight.

Paul

Rollout: Cash or play on?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Cash or play on?
Date: Tue, 23 May 2023 09:22:16 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 23 May 2023 13:22 UTC

XGID=-BCBaa------A-----acbbbc--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Move X's outfield blot back one pip and XG says it's no longer
too good (though just barely).

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 81.49% (G:47.24% B:0.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 81.53% (G:47.12% B:0.53%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 18.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +1.151
Redouble/Take: +2.073 (+0.921)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (-0.151)

Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 14.1%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+1.148..+1.154)
Confidence Double: ± 0.008 (+2.065..+2.080)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BCBaa-------A----acbbbc--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X | | 2 |
| | | O O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 27 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 76.41% (G:39.15% B:0.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.40% (G:39.15% B:0.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.986 (-0.014)
Redouble/Take: +1.662 (+0.662)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Large
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.982..+0.990)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+1.653..+1.671)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Cash or play on?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Cash or play on?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 23 May 2023 14:44 UTC

On Tuesday, May 23, 2023 at 2:22:20 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BCBaa------A-----acbbbc--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O O O O |
> | | | O O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X | +---+
> | | | X X X | | 2 |
> | X | | O O X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 26 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action
> Move X's outfield blot back one pip and XG says it's no longer
> too good (though just barely).
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No redouble
> Player Winning Chances: 81.49% (G:47.24% B:0.57%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 18.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Redouble/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 81.53% (G:47.12% B:0.53%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 18.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No redouble: +1.151
> Redouble/Take: +2.073 (+0.921)
> Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (-0.151)
>
> Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
> Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 14.1%
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.003 (+1.148..+1.154)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.008 (+2.065..+2.080)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-BCBaa-------A----acbbbc--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O O O |
> | | | O O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X | +---+
> | | | X X X | | 2 |
> | | | O O X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 27 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No redouble
> Player Winning Chances: 76.41% (G:39.15% B:0.45%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 23.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Redouble/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 76.40% (G:39.15% B:0.45%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 23.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No redouble: +0.986 (-0.014)
> Redouble/Take: +1.662 (+0.662)
> Redouble/Pass: +1.000
>
> Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
> Search interval: Large
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.982..+0.990)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+1.653..+1.671)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

At most levels, the original position is a practical double I think, because the probability of
getting a take must be higher than 14%. Losing is very plausible after all, even if its actual
probability is lower than it might seem.

Paul

Re: Rollout: Cash or play on?

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Date: Wed, 24 May 2023 00:59:21 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: Re: Rollout: Cash or play on?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Wed, 24 May 2023 07:59 UTC

I'm not called "Mr. Generalisation" for no reason at all.
I will now attempt to answer the quiz when you variantize
to consider the blot (now on 12) on any vacant slot.

Let this slot be numbered x.
TG iff x<=12.
DP iff 13 <= x <= 17
ND/T (but no beaver) iff x==24.

I'm not at all sure, though.
But why ask? Where's my bot?
My bot is on a laptop which is broken.
I know that there are workarounds but I'm
not using a bot at the moment.

Paul

Subject	Author
Cash or play on?	Timothy Chow
Re: Cash or play on?	peps...@gmail.com
Re: Cash or play on?	Stick Rice
Re: Cash or play on?	peps...@gmail.com
Rollout: Cash or play on?	Timothy Chow
Re: Rollout: Cash or play on?	peps...@gmail.com
Re: Rollout: Cash or play on?	peps...@gmail.com