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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: 3-away/7-away cube action

SubjectAuthor
* 3-away/7-away cube actionTimothy Chow
`* Rollout: 3-away/7-away cube actionTimothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: 3-away/7-away cube actionStick Rice

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3-away/7-away cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 3-away/7-away cube action
Date: Sun, 28 May 2023 11:41:00 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 28 May 2023 15:41 UTC

XGID=-ABBBBBa-----Ba----cBb--h-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O |
| X | | O X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | 8 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 63 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 3-away/7-away cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 3-away/7-away cube action
Date: Tue, 30 May 2023 08:23:38 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 30 May 2023 12:23 UTC

XGID=-ABBBBBa-----Ba----cBb--h-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10

Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X O O |
| X | | O X O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | 8 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 107 O: 63 X-O: 4-0/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Stick's rule is not to double at 3-away/many-away in gammonish
positions. The exception that I have learned is that if the 3-away
player *loses* very few gammons, then it can still be a double if
it's close to pass. Here, X indeed loses very few gammons, but it's
not all that close to being a pass. Nevertheless, XG insists on
doubling. So, is this another class of exceptions? It's a rather
unusual position so I hesitate to draw a general conclusion.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 74.31% (G:26.06% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.69% (G:2.66% B:0.01%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.70% (G:25.23% B:1.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.30% (G:2.59% B:0.15%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.701 (-0.190)
Double/Take: +0.891
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.109)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.692..+0.710)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.878..+0.905)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: 3-away/7-away cube action

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Subject: Re: Rollout: 3-away/7-away cube action
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Wed, 31 May 2023 10:23 UTC

On Tuesday, May 30, 2023 at 8:23:42 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-ABBBBBa-----Ba----cBb--h-:0:0:1:00:4:0:0:7:10
>
> Score is X:4 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O X O O |
> | X | | O X O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | 8 |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X X X X |
> | O | | X X X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 107 O: 63 X-O: 4-0/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> Stick's rule is not to double at 3-away/many-away in gammonish
> positions. The exception that I have learned is that if the 3-away
> player *loses* very few gammons, then it can still be a double if
> it's close to pass. Here, X indeed loses very few gammons, but it's
> not all that close to being a pass. Nevertheless, XG insists on
> doubling. So, is this another class of exceptions? It's a rather
> unusual position so I hesitate to draw a general conclusion.
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 74.31% (G:26.06% B:0.96%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 25.69% (G:2.66% B:0.01%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 74.70% (G:25.23% B:1.44%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 25.30% (G:2.59% B:0.15%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.701 (-0.190)
> Double/Take: +0.891
> Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.109)
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Take
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.692..+0.710)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.878..+0.905)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

The rule is for 3a 7a or greater. Given that that's where we (I) decided to begin the rule it should be intuitive that there will be more exceptions at 3a 7a than 3a 8a or 3a 9a etc...It's not really surprising to see an exception and like you said, you can narrow down when they happen and incorporate that into your game. That's what over reaching adages are for, to give the end user a generalized building block that works the vast majority of the time. Hopefully they incorporate it into their game and realize when the maxim falls short, figure out the why, and add that addendum mentally to your banked knowledge. Constantly building on that you can end up with some cutting axioms. Or, the short version, make the dmp play ;)

Stick

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