XGID=----B-E-D-b-cB---c-e--b-B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

---
Tim Chow

On 6/10/2023 8:36 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=----B-E-D-b-cB---c-e--b-B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           O    |   | O        O     X |
>  | X           O    |   | O        O     X |
>  |             O    |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |             X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X    |   | X                |
>  | O     O     X    |   | X     X          |
>  | O     O     X    |   | X     X          |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 144  O: 129 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 43

I don't enjoy sitting on the ace point waiting patiently to lose, so
I'll split here. It might be an error, but the longer you wait to split
the more difficult the decision becomes, so splitting early even when
it's not correct can forestall a much bigger error later.

Above advice from Paul Money, who seems to have disappeared from the
backgammon scene.

So, I'll split here and slot the five point. seems better than the
reverse split that puts a spare on the four instead of slotting the
point we want to make. Slotting both five points can't be all bad, right?

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

XGID=----B-E-D-b-cB---c-e--b-B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

When the opponent has played an early 55 (played 13/3(2)) then we
are usually disincentivized to split, because the opponent wants
to attack or race, and splitting plays into those game plans.
Instead, we want to contain the opponent's rear checkers.

But if those rear checkers have escaped, the calculus changes.
We may need to split in order to bid for an advanced anchor, or
provoke contact. The risk of getting attacked is still present,
of course, so we have to balance that risk.

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 8/5 eq:-0.485
Player: 37.84% (G:10.49% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 62.16% (G:17.98% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.495..-0.474) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/3 eq:-0.523 (-0.039)
Player: 36.96% (G:9.71% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 63.04% (G:18.39% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.535..-0.512) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/21 24/20 eq:-0.528 (-0.044)
Player: 35.98% (G:6.42% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 64.02% (G:14.33% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.538..-0.518) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/21 8/4 eq:-0.547 (-0.062)
Player: 36.24% (G:9.49% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 63.76% (G:17.73% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.557..-0.536) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/4 eq:-0.565 (-0.080)
Player: 34.85% (G:8.48% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 65.15% (G:12.80% B:0.54%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.577..-0.553) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/2 eq:-0.567 (-0.082)
Player: 35.21% (G:8.75% B:0.28%)
Opponent: 64.79% (G:13.58% B:0.67%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.579..-0.554) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 24/21 6/2 eq:-0.570 (-0.086)
Player: 35.94% (G:9.20% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 64.06% (G:18.47% B:0.71%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.582..-0.559) - [0.0%]

8. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/3 eq:-0.598 (-0.114)
Player: 34.64% (G:8.06% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 65.36% (G:13.51% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.610..-0.587) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=----B-EbD---cB---c-e--b-B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X X |
| O X O | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 8/5 eq:-0.296
Player: 43.06% (G:11.63% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 56.94% (G:17.85% B:0.58%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.309..-0.283) - [97.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/2 eq:-0.313 (-0.017)
Player: 41.72% (G:12.69% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 58.28% (G:15.37% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.324..-0.302) - [2.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=----B-E-D---cBb--c-e--b-B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 121 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/2 eq:-0.813
Player: 28.65% (G:5.23% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 71.35% (G:11.79% B:0.55%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.827..-0.800) - [100.0%]

[ ... various non-splitting plays omitted ...]

2. Rollout¹ 24/21 8/4 eq:-0.892 (-0.078)
Player: 28.98% (G:5.32% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 71.02% (G:16.94% B:0.49%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.904..-0.879) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow