It's about the men it will lose to the war. (And the men and women who don't exist, as the title suggests. See the movie.) One thing I find kind of dubious is the author's comment that the high-fertility Colombia "has for many years been one of the happiest countries on earth."

Also, unless I missed it, he doesn't explain how Putin could possibly ignore the fact that by starting the war, he's making it even harder for young Russian women to have husbands and families, given the already-low birth rate.

https://edwest.substack.com/p/children-of-men-is-really-happening?r=u0rd&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=direct

By Ed West.

Russia is dying. In just the first week of Putin’s war, the country lost somewhere between 2,000 and 6,000 men, according to western sources, an immense and needless tragedy for the poor families left behind to grieve..

Whether those in the Kremlin will weep for them, they must shudder at the thought that in the average week the country loses another 2,000 through population decline, a rate that rose to 20,000 during Covid. But even in normal periods, Russia is now shrinking by more than 100,000 people a year and with no prospect of raising fertility above the 2.1 total fertility rate (children-per-woman) replacement threshold.

The incomprehensible thing about this war is that Russia is not a belligerent young nation in need of expansion; it is not filled with frustrated young men hoping to assert themselves in conflict, as with Syria, Afghanistan or the world’s other conflict zones; it is already elderly, ageing quickly and in some parts heading for oblivion. Some 20,000 Russian villages have been completely abandoned in recent years, and 36,000 others have fewer than ten inhabitants left and will follow them soon. A third of land once farmed in the former USSR has now been abandoned.

If the Russians turn out to have no stomach for this fight, it will probably be for the simple fact that the country does not have enough men to spare.. The majority of those poor young men killed for Russia’s honour will be their mother’s only son, in many cases their only child; this will make the impact of Putin’s crimes even more devastating for its victims.

For the same is true of Ukraine; indeed its rate of population decline is even worse. Across huge swathes of the planet, in an ‘infertile crescent’ from Spain to Singapore, the population is ageing quite rapidly, and about to begin a steep decline — a real life Children of Men that is the subject of a new book, Tomorrow’s People by Paul Morland...

(snip)

On Sunday, March 13, 2022 at 1:02:55 PM UTC-4, Lenona wrote:

One thing I find kind of dubious is the author's comment that the high-fertility Colombia "has for many years been one of the happiest countries on earth."

Whoops - sorry, I don't know how I said that; as the article made clear, Colombia's birth rate is now about the same as in Europe. (The first chart I found said that in 2019, it was at 1.79 births per woman.)

This is certainly an intriguing take on Russia's geopolitical adventurism; thanks much for posting it, Lenona[.] !

BRYAN STYBLE/Florida

> Also, unless I missed it, he doesn't explain how Putin could possibly ignore the fact that by starting the war, he's making it even harder for young Russian women to have husbands and families, given the already-low birth rate.

More specifically, if the situation in Russia is really as bad as the author suggests, why WOULD Putin risk making it far worse, since war inevitably means a future shortage of men - or at least able-bodied men?

So, maybe the population problem ISN'T really that bad? Immigrants exist, after all.