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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: 5-away/7-away recube

SubjectAuthor
* 5-away/7-away recubeTimothy Chow
+- Re: 5-away/7-away recubeah...Clem
`- Rollout: 5-away/7-away recubeTimothy Chow

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5-away/7-away recube

<u6s8d4$2es6j$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 5-away/7-away recube
Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2023 09:08:51 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 20 Jun 2023 13:08 UTC

XGID=-aBB-bBBB-B-----AAa-Abccc-:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:7:10

Score is X:2 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | X O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X O X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 97 X-O: 2-0/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: 5-away/7-away recube

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 5-away/7-away recube
Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2023 18:16:28 -0400
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In-Reply-To: <u6s8d4$2es6j$3@dont-email.me>
 by: ah...Clem - Tue, 20 Jun 2023 22:16 UTC

On 6/20/2023 9:08 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-aBB-bBBB-B-----AAa-Abccc-:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:7:10
>
> Score is X:2 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |          X  X  O |   |    X  O  O  O  O |
>  |                  |   |       O  O  O  O |
>  |                  |   |          O  O  O |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  | +---+
>  |       X     X  X |   | X  O     X  X    | | 2 |
>  |       X     X  X |   | X  O     X  X  O | +---+
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 125  O: 97 X-O: 2-0/7
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

At 5a 7a the leader has an elevated takepoint, but the trailer has a
fairly "normal" takepoint of about 19%. Does O have that? Her board is
weak but still something, and she has an advanced anchor plus a
substantial lead in the race. So, I'll say take. The crunched board
and the straggler on the ace plus the blot make me think there's enough
market losers to ship it. Yeah, X doesn't want to eat an eight cube,
but that's a calculated risk.

D/T.

Rollout: 5-away/7-away recube

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 5-away/7-away recube
Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2023 08:16:41 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 22 Jun 2023 12:16 UTC

XGID=-aBB-bBBB-B-----AAa-Abccc-:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:7:10

Score is X:2 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | X O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X O X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 97 X-O: 2-0/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Like ah...clem, I thought that O's position was wrecked enough to
justify a redouble even at this score. However, O has the golden
anchor and a large lead in the pip count, which XG thinks gives her
position enough resilience that it doesn't think X should redouble
just yet. As an illustration, I have rolled out a possible cube
decision that X might face now if he doesn't redouble now: suppose
X rolls 52 (played 20/18* 17/12) and O enters with 65 (played bar/14).
XG thinks that O would still be able to take. So there aren't all
that many market losers, according to XG.

As a variant, I have downgraded O's anchor to the 4pt, and then XG
thinks it's a borderline redouble.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 73.85% (G:19.67% B:1.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.15% (G:3.68% B:0.03%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.58% (G:18.19% B:2.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.42% (G:4.17% B:0.00%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.799
Redouble/Take: +0.679 (-0.120)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.201)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 37.3%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.790..+0.807)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.665..+0.693)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----------------------------
After 20/18* 17/12 and bar/14
-----------------------------

XGID=-aBB-bBBB-BaA---A-A--bccc-:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:7:10

Score is X:2 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| X O X X X | | X O X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 104 X-O: 2-0/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 78.36% (G:19.99% B:1.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.64% (G:2.45% B:0.02%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.73% (G:18.09% B:1.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.27% (G:2.69% B:0.00%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.921 (-0.016)
Redouble/Take: +0.937
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.063)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.913..+0.929)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.924..+0.950)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aBBb-BBB-B-----AAa-Abccc-:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:7:10

Score is X:2 O:0 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | X O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X X | | X O X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X O X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 99 X-O: 2-0/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 77.74% (G:20.44% B:1.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.26% (G:3.36% B:0.03%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.15% (G:19.39% B:1.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.85% (G:3.68% B:0.03%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.903 (-0.007)
Redouble/Take: +0.910
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.090)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.895..+0.911)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.896..+0.925)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

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