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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Break anchor?

SubjectAuthor
* Break anchor?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Break anchor?ah....Clem
`- Rollout: Break anchor?Timothy Chow

1
Break anchor?

<u79eil$g4rs$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Break anchor?
Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2023 09:13:57 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 25 Jun 2023 13:13 UTC

XGID=---A-BD-Bab-bDa--bbb-bB-a-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X O |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O O X | | X X |
| O O O X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

Re: Break anchor?

<u7apfv$l6bm$2@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Break anchor?
Date: Sun, 25 Jun 2023 21:26:24 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Mon, 26 Jun 2023 01:26 UTC

On 6/25/2023 9:13 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=---A-BD-Bab-bDa--bbb-bB-a-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X  O        O  O |   | O     O  X     O |
>  | X           O  O |   | O     O  X       |
>  | X                |   |                  |
>  | X                |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O     O     X    |   | X  X             |
>  | O     O  O  X    |   | X  X     X       |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 149  O: 134 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 63

Behind in the race I'd keep the anchor to maintain contact. OTOH, the
three point is a POS, so maybe getting off it post haste is the bot play.

I'll unstack the midpoint and make a third homeboard point and hope she
leaves shot or I roll boxes. 13/7 6/3.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Break anchor?

<u7enr0$1dcto$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Break anchor?
Date: Tue, 27 Jun 2023 09:22:39 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 27 Jun 2023 13:22 UTC

XGID=---A-BD-Bab-bDa--bbb-bB-a-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O X O |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O O X | | X X |
| O O O X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

Normally in a holding game, the idea is to stay back for more contact,
and hold the anchor until we can hit a shot. But here, we have the
stronger board and are not that far behind in the pip count, so there
is value in provoking contact right away. Given how close the race is,
the 3pt anchor is a bit too deep to hold on to for much longer anyway.

In the variant below, breaking anchor carries a higher risk of getting
attacked, and XG says the decision is much closer.

1. Rollout¹ 22/16 6/3 eq:-0.343
Player: 40.91% (G:9.73% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 59.09% (G:15.00% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.356..-0.330) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/3 eq:-0.450 (-0.107)
Player: 37.13% (G:7.19% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 62.87% (G:7.71% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.460..-0.439) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/4 eq:-0.488 (-0.146)
Player: 36.45% (G:7.12% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 63.55% (G:9.07% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.499..-0.477) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 13/7 8/5 eq:-0.504 (-0.162)
Player: 35.84% (G:6.91% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 64.16% (G:8.47% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.516..-0.492) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/3 eq:-0.517 (-0.175)
Player: 35.43% (G:6.66% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 64.57% (G:8.07% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.530..-0.505) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 22/13 eq:-0.528 (-0.185)
Player: 35.91% (G:6.38% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 64.09% (G:12.14% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.539..-0.517) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---A-BD-Bab-bD---bcc-bB---:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O O X | | X X |
| O O O X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 22/16 6/3 eq:-0.592
Player: 34.38% (G:6.11% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 65.62% (G:14.41% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.598..-0.586) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 6/3 eq:-0.609 (-0.017)
Player: 32.86% (G:5.13% B:0.16%)
Opponent: 67.14% (G:6.60% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.615..-0.604) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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