XGID=--bBCBBB--a-bC---b-cbbaA--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
| O O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.
--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

On 6/14/2023 11:42 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
>
>
> XGID=--bBCBBB--a-bC---b-cbbaA--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
>
> X:Player 1   O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           O    |   | O  O  O  O  X    | +---+
>  | X           O    |   | O  O  O          | | 2 |
>  | X                |   | O                | +---+
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |       X          |
>  | O              X |   | X  X  X  X  O    |
>  | O     O        X |   | X  X  X  X  O    |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 116  O: 142 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 33

I think I'd keep my five-prime. We still have a straggler that could
get into trouble, and if that happens, then I don't want O to be able
to turn the game around by jumping her back checkers over our four-prime
while we're dancing. With our five-prime, even if O enters, we retain
a solid grip over the position, with plenty of gammon chances.

There's still a question of what play to make. Maybe there's something
cleverer than 13/10*(3) 10/7, but I don't see it, so that's my play.

---
Tim Chow

On Thursday, June 15, 2023 at 2:00:07 AM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> On 6/14/2023 11:42 AM, ah....Clem wrote:
> >
> >
> > XGID=--bBCBBB--a-bC---b-cbbaA--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O | | O O O O X | +---+
> > | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
> > | X | | O | +---+
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O X | | X X X X O |
> > | O O X | | X X X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 116 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, O own cube
> > X to play 33
> I think I'd keep my five-prime. We still have a straggler that could
> get into trouble, and if that happens, then I don't want O to be able
> to turn the game around by jumping her back checkers over our four-prime
> while we're dancing. With our five-prime, even if O enters, we retain
> a solid grip over the position, with plenty of gammon chances.
>
> There's still a question of what play to make. Maybe there's something
> cleverer than 13/10*(3) 10/7, but I don't see it, so that's my play.

I think we should hit and also play aggressively to hit the opponent's inner board blot
13/10* 7/1 4/1

Let's skip to the good bit!

Paul

Tim and I had substantially similar ideas about this play. I wrote:

Attack or prime? And since we're stuck behind a prime too, timing is an
issue. Making a five point board with one on the bar looks very strong,
but we have to give up the bar point to do so. I like the looks of
hitting and keeping the bar point - she is then favored to enter and
have three stuck behind a solid five prime which makes it more likely
that her blockade will weaken. If once she enters can leap the blockade
with a 5 or 6 we might be stuck behind her blockade for too long. So,
13/10*(2) 13/7 for me.

The idea is to put her on the roof, have her enter and be stuck behind
our blockade while hers deteriorates. Whether that's going to work
remains to be seen.

Alas, XG begs to differ, and prefers making the ace point after hitting
by .053.

Why is that better? Neilkaz offered the terse opinion that he liked
making the ace point "...for more gammons and noting that XG can't
improve her board while dancing." Both plays win about the same number
of games, but making the ace wins more gammons.

Another commenter observed that after 13/10* 7/1 4/1 fives are
duplicated. I'm skeptical of that since it's only 52 that's duped not
the usual eleven or so fives. But in the variant, where I've moved O's
checkers on the 17 back to the 16 to eliminate the duplication keeping
the prime comes out very slightly better.

XGID=--bBCBBB--a-bC---b-cbbaA--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
| O O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 13/10* 7/1 4/1 eq:+0.600
Player: 68.61% (G:39.56% B:1.92%)
Opponent: 31.39% (G:5.11% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.591..+0.610) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 13/10*(3) 10/7 eq:+0.548 (-0.053)
Player: 68.36% (G:33.62% B:2.19%)
Opponent: 31.64% (G:4.24% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.538..+0.558) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 55 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

/////////////////////////
// variant
/////////////////////////

XGID=--bBCBBB--a-bC--b--cbbaA--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O | | 2 |
| X | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
| O O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 13/10*(3) 10/7 eq:+0.660
Player: 73.08% (G:32.62% B:1.90%)
Opponent: 26.92% (G:3.12% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.651..+0.668) - [98.5%]
Duration: 4 minutes 36 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 13/10* 7/1 4/1 eq:+0.646 (-0.013)
Player: 70.90% (G:38.04% B:1.77%)
Opponent: 29.10% (G:4.43% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.638..+0.655) - [1.5%]
Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

On Friday, June 16, 2023 at 11:42:41 PM UTC+1, ah....Clem wrote:
> Tim and I had substantially similar ideas about this play. I wrote:
>
> Attack or prime? And since we're stuck behind a prime too, timing is an
> issue. Making a five point board with one on the bar looks very strong,
> but we have to give up the bar point to do so. I like the looks of
> hitting and keeping the bar point - she is then favored to enter and
> have three stuck behind a solid five prime which makes it more likely
> that her blockade will weaken. If once she enters can leap the blockade
> with a 5 or 6 we might be stuck behind her blockade for too long. So,
> 13/10*(2) 13/7 for me.
>
> The idea is to put her on the roof, have her enter and be stuck behind
> our blockade while hers deteriorates. Whether that's going to work
> remains to be seen.
>
> Alas, XG begs to differ, and prefers making the ace point after hitting
> by .053.
>
> Why is that better? Neilkaz offered the terse opinion that he liked
> making the ace point "...for more gammons and noting that XG can't
> improve her board while dancing." Both plays win about the same number
> of games, but making the ace wins more gammons.
>
> Another commenter observed that after 13/10* 7/1 4/1 fives are
> duplicated. I'm skeptical of that since it's only 52 that's duped not
> the usual eleven or so fives. But in the variant, where I've moved O's
> checkers on the 17 back to the 16 to eliminate the duplication keeping
> the prime comes out very slightly better.
> XGID=--bBCBBB--a-bC---b-cbbaA--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O O X | +---+
> | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
> | X | | O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X X X X O |
> | O O X | | X X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 116 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 33
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/10* 7/1 4/1 eq:+0.600
> Player: 68.61% (G:39.56% B:1.92%)
> Opponent: 31.39% (G:5.11% B:0.22%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.591..+0.610) - [100.0%]
> Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/10*(3) 10/7 eq:+0.548 (-0.053)
> Player: 68.36% (G:33.62% B:2.19%)
> Opponent: 31.64% (G:4.24% B:0.17%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.538..+0.558) - [0.0%]
> Duration: 3 minutes 55 seconds
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
>
>
>
> /////////////////////////
> // variant
> /////////////////////////
>
>
> XGID=--bBCBBB--a-bC--b--cbbaA--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O O X | +---+
> | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
> | X | | O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X X X X O |
> | O O X | | X X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 116 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 33
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/10*(3) 10/7 eq:+0.660
> Player: 73.08% (G:32.62% B:1.90%)
> Opponent: 26.92% (G:3.12% B:0.13%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.651..+0.668) - [98.5%]
> Duration: 4 minutes 36 seconds
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/10* 7/1 4/1 eq:+0.646 (-0.013)
> Player: 70.90% (G:38.04% B:1.77%)
> Opponent: 29.10% (G:4.43% B:0.18%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.638..+0.655) - [1.5%]
> Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds
>
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

I see this as quite a Stick-friendly position.
I was just jonesing for that inner board blot
to max my gammon chances. (I should probably have
said about the increased gammons)
but, as a major Tim-fan, I also saw his play as making
good DMP sense.
But, mirabile dictu, we observe (well some people observe
it, anyway) that the correct play (my play) actually wins most
games so is presumably the correct DMP move anyway.

The DMP Rule seems like a hero here.

Paul

On Monday, June 19, 2023 at 7:37:42 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Friday, June 16, 2023 at 11:42:41 PM UTC+1, ah....Clem wrote:
> > Tim and I had substantially similar ideas about this play. I wrote:
> >
> > Attack or prime? And since we're stuck behind a prime too, timing is an
> > issue. Making a five point board with one on the bar looks very strong,
> > but we have to give up the bar point to do so. I like the looks of
> > hitting and keeping the bar point - she is then favored to enter and
> > have three stuck behind a solid five prime which makes it more likely
> > that her blockade will weaken. If once she enters can leap the blockade
> > with a 5 or 6 we might be stuck behind her blockade for too long. So,
> > 13/10*(2) 13/7 for me.
> >
> > The idea is to put her on the roof, have her enter and be stuck behind
> > our blockade while hers deteriorates. Whether that's going to work
> > remains to be seen.
> >
> > Alas, XG begs to differ, and prefers making the ace point after hitting
> > by .053.
> >
> > Why is that better? Neilkaz offered the terse opinion that he liked
> > making the ace point "...for more gammons and noting that XG can't
> > improve her board while dancing." Both plays win about the same number
> > of games, but making the ace wins more gammons.
> >
> > Another commenter observed that after 13/10* 7/1 4/1 fives are
> > duplicated. I'm skeptical of that since it's only 52 that's duped not
> > the usual eleven or so fives. But in the variant, where I've moved O's
> > checkers on the 17 back to the 16 to eliminate the duplication keeping
> > the prime comes out very slightly better.
> > XGID=--bBCBBB--a-bC---b-cbbaA--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
> >
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O | | O O O O X | +---+
> > | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
> > | X | | O | +---+
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O X | | X X X X O |
> > | O O X | | X X X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 116 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, O own cube
> > X to play 33
> > 1. Rollout¹ 13/10* 7/1 4/1 eq:+0.600
> > Player: 68.61% (G:39.56% B:1.92%)
> > Opponent: 31.39% (G:5.11% B:0.22%)
> > Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.591..+0.610) - [100.0%]
> > Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds
> >
> > 2. Rollout¹ 13/10*(3) 10/7 eq:+0.548 (-0.053)
> > Player: 68.36% (G:33.62% B:2.19%)
> > Opponent: 31.64% (G:4.24% B:0.17%)
> > Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.538..+0.558) - [0.0%]
> > Duration: 3 minutes 55 seconds
> >
> > ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> > Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
> >
> >
> >
> > /////////////////////////
> > // variant
> > /////////////////////////
> >
> >
> > XGID=--bBCBBB--a-bC--b--cbbaA--:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
> > X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O | | O O O O X | +---+
> > | X O | | O O O | | 2 |
> > | X | | O | +---+
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O X | | X X X X O |
> > | O O X | | X X X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 116 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, O own cube
> > X to play 33
> > 1. Rollout¹ 13/10*(3) 10/7 eq:+0.660
> > Player: 73.08% (G:32.62% B:1.90%)
> > Opponent: 26.92% (G:3.12% B:0.13%)
> > Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.651..+0.668) - [98.5%]
> > Duration: 4 minutes 36 seconds
> >
> > 2. Rollout¹ 13/10* 7/1 4/1 eq:+0.646 (-0.013)
> > Player: 70.90% (G:38.04% B:1.77%)
> > Opponent: 29.10% (G:4.43% B:0.18%)
> > Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.638..+0.655) - [1.5%]
> > Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds
> >
> >
> > ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> > Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> >
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
> I see this as quite a Stick-friendly position.
> I was just jonesing for that inner board blot
> to max my gammon chances. (I should probably have
> said about the increased gammons)
> but, as a major Tim-fan, I also saw his play as making
> good DMP sense.
> But, mirabile dictu, we observe (well some people observe
> it, anyway) that the correct play (my pl
ay) actually wins most
> games so is presumably the correct DMP move anyway.
>
> The DMP Rule seems like a hero here.
>
> Paul

The hitting play is correct at dmp by almost half a percent. (.010)

Stick