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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Some kind of cube action 2

SubjectAuthor
* Some kind of cube action 2Timothy Chow
+* Re: Some kind of cube action 2ah....Clem
|`- Re: Some kind of cube action 2Renan Moritz
`- Rollout: Some kind of cube action 2Timothy Chow

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Some kind of cube action 2

<u86ab6$tt77$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Some kind of cube action 2
Date: Thu, 6 Jul 2023 07:59:33 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 6 Jul 2023 11:59 UTC

XGID=-a--bBDBBB--cB---d-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 167 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: Some kind of cube action 2

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Some kind of cube action 2
Date: Thu, 6 Jul 2023 12:52:45 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Thu, 6 Jul 2023 16:52 UTC

On 7/6/2023 7:59 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a--bBDBBB--cB---d-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           O    |   | O              X |
>  | X           O    |   | O                |
>  |             O    |   | O                |
>  |             O    |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O                |   | X                |
>  | O        X  X  X |   | X  X  O          |
>  | O        X  X  X |   | X  X  O        O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 132  O: 167 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

Move X's runner and one of the checkers from the six point to the
midpoint and the rule of fours would apply. Assuming the pipcount stays
the same, it would be D/P.

But X still has to spring the runner and O has a "stinger" which
complicates the bear in. That seems to be enough to push it to a take.

D/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: Some kind of cube action 2

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Subject: Re: Some kind of cube action 2
From: renan.m....@gmail.com (Renan Moritz)
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 by: Renan Moritz - Thu, 6 Jul 2023 19:48 UTC

Same analysis of the last position!
D/P, but wouldn't be surprised if it is a take

Rollout: Some kind of cube action 2

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Some kind of cube action 2
Date: Sat, 8 Jul 2023 09:06:09 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 8 Jul 2023 13:06 UTC

XGID=-a--bBDBBB--cB---d-e----A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 167 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

O's only asset is her 4pt anchor. The extra straggler is more of a
liability than an asset; O has no structure, so the extra contact
favors X, who has increased gammon chances from the potential to
attack that straggler. X's only liability is his own straggler.
Does that give O enough counterplay to take? According to XG, no.
But it's not as big a pass as one might think, because the high
anchor covers over a multitude of sins.

In the variant, I have moved one of X's spares around the board to
O's bar point. This could be considered a reference position, not
because it's right on the borderline of anything, but because it is
simple enough to memorize easily.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 74.75% (G:16.94% B:0.51%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.25% (G:3.76% B:0.12%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.21% (G:18.09% B:0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.79% (G:4.13% B:0.16%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.958 (-0.042)
Double/Take: +1.073 (+0.073)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.950..+0.966)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+1.056..+1.089)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--bBCBBB--cB---dAe----A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O X |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| O | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O X X X | | X X O |
| O X X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 144 O: 167 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 73.58% (G:14.26% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.42% (G:4.14% B:0.13%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.39% (G:14.66% B:0.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.61% (G:4.25% B:0.14%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.925 (-0.042)
Double/Take: +0.967
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.033)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.917..+0.934)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.955..+0.980)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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