novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon - 4-away/3-away recube action

4-away/3-away recube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 4-away/3-away recube action
Date: Sun, 16 Jul 2023 08:41:58 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 16 Jul 2023 12:41 UTC

XGID=-BABDcB--B---A--b--bcb-Ac-:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10

Score is X:3 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | O X | +---+
| X | | X O X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 116 X-O: 3-4/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: 4-away/3-away recube action

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From: REMOVETH...@gmail.com (badgolferman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 4-away/3-away recube action
Date: Sun, 16 Jul 2023 14:36:52 -0000 (UTC)
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by: badgolferman - Sun, 16 Jul 2023 14:36 UTC

Timothy Chow wrote:

>XGID=-BABDcB--B---A--b--bcb-Ac-:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10
>
>Score is X:3 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O X O |
> | O | | O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | O X | +---+
> | X | | X O X X X | | 2 |
> | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>Pip count X: 92 O: 116 X-O: 3-4/7
>Cube: 2, X own cube
>X on roll, cube action
>
>---
>Tim Chow

I'd say Double / Drop.

Other than getting a couple large doubles, O is in a precarious
position. It's doubtful he would hit in his inner board so even if X
can't get out now he's probably safe there. Live to fight another day.

Re: 4-away/3-away recube action

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 4-away/3-away recube action
Date: Sun, 16 Jul 2023 16:45:30 -0400
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by: ah....Clem - Sun, 16 Jul 2023 20:45 UTC

On 7/16/2023 8:41 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BABDcB--B---A--b--bcb-Ac-:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10
>
> Score is X:3 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X        O       |   | O O O     X O |
> |          O       |   | O O O        O |
> |                  |   |    O           O |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |BAR|                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |       X          |
> |                  |   |    O X          | +---+
> |          X       |   | X O X X     X | | 2 |
> |          X       |   | X O X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 92 O: 116 X-O: 3-4/7
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action

O's takepoint AtS is an elevated 40%. She probably has that now, but if
X springs the runner and isn't hit she won't. So, enough market losers
to ship it and definitely a cube against a human since some will pass.

R/T.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: 4-away/3-away recube action

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Subject: Re: 4-away/3-away recube action
From: renan.m....@gmail.com (Renan Moritz)
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by: Renan Moritz - Mon, 17 Jul 2023 00:47 UTC

On Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 5:45:31 PM UTC-3, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 7/16/2023 8:41 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=-BABDcB--B---A--b--bcb-Ac-:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10
> >
> > Score is X:3 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O | | O O O X O |
> > | O | | O O O O |
> > | | | O O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | O X | +---+
> > | X | | X O X X X | | 2 |
> > | X | | X O X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 92 O: 116 X-O: 3-4/7
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X on roll, cube action
> O's takepoint AtS is an elevated 40%. She probably has that now, but if
> X springs the runner and isn't hit she won't. So, enough market losers
> to ship it and definitely a cube against a human since some will pass.
>
>
> R/T.
>
>
> --
> Ah....Clem
> The future is fun, the future is fair.

O is 24 points behind in the race, and I cannot see many pluses in its position, I do not believe it has 40%. I would rather pass
Anyway OTB I agree, many players would rather pass than define the match this time

Rollout: 4-away/3-away recube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 4-away/3-away recube action
Date: Tue, 18 Jul 2023 07:58:51 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 18 Jul 2023 11:58 UTC

XGID=-BABDcB--B---A--b--bcb-Ac-:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10

Does O have 40% winning chances here? I thought so. She has a
four-point board and X still has work to do to bring his two
stragglers home. Admittedly O has dead checkers on her 1pt, but
X has semi-dead checkers of his own. Nevertheless, XG believes
that this is a pass. But it doesn't require that much tweaking
to turn this into a take (see variants below).

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 61.11% (G:10.44% B:0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.89% (G:4.50% B:0.19%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.05% (G:13.69% B:0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.95% (G:4.75% B:0.11%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.858 (-0.142)
Redouble/Take: +1.101 (+0.101)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.852..+0.865)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+1.093..+1.110)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-BABDcB--B-----Ab--bcb-Ac-:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10

Score is X:3 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | O X | +---+
| X | | X O X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 94 O: 116 X-O: 3-4/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 58.79% (G:10.96% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.21% (G:5.52% B:0.10%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.45% (G:13.36% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.55% (G:5.68% B:0.07%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.781 (-0.195)
Redouble/Take: +0.976
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.024)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.774..+0.788)
Confidence Double: ± 0.008 (+0.968..+0.984)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-BABDcB--B---A--b--bdb-Ab-:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:10

Score is X:3 O:4 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O X O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | O X | +---+
| X | | X O X X X | | 2 |
| X | | X O X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 120 X-O: 3-4/7
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 57.86% (G:11.67% B:0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.14% (G:6.13% B:0.25%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 58.16% (G:14.46% B:0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.84% (G:6.19% B:0.10%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.703 (-0.211)
Redouble/Take: +0.914
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.086)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.695..+0.711)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+0.905..+0.922)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

He who minds his own business is never unemployed.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / 4-away/3-away recube action

Subject	Author
4-away/3-away recube action	Timothy Chow
Re: 4-away/3-away recube action	badgolferman
Re: 4-away/3-away recube action	ah....Clem
Re: 4-away/3-away recube action	Renan Moritz
Rollout: 4-away/3-away recube action	Timothy Chow