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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: 2-away/6-away cube action

SubjectAuthor
* 2-away/6-away cube actionTimothy Chow
+- Re: 2-away/6-away cube actionah....Clem
`- Rollout: 2-away/6-away cube actionTimothy Chow

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2-away/6-away cube action

<u9b8c6$2mjjh$4@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 2-away/6-away cube action
Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2023 08:12:51 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 20 Jul 2023 12:12 UTC

XGID=--abBBBBC-B-b-aB-bac-ba---:0:0:1:00:5:1:0:7:10

Score is X:5 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
| O X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 156 X-O: 5-1/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: 2-away/6-away cube action

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 2-away/6-away cube action
Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2023 11:04:51 -0400
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 by: ah....Clem - Thu, 20 Jul 2023 15:04 UTC

On 7/20/2023 8:12 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--abBBBBC-B-b-aB-bac-ba---:0:0:1:00:5:1:0:7:10
>
> Score is X:5 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |    O  X     O  O |   | O     O  O       |
>  |       X     O    |   | O     O          |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |             X    |   |                  |
>  | O     X     X  X |   | X  X  X  O       |
>  | O     X     X  X |   | X  X  X  O  O    |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 118  O: 156 X-O: 5-1/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

At 6a 2a, the trailer has a lower takepoint than usual, but not that
much lower at around 18%.

For money play, holding the three point when your opponent has escaped
their checkers is a take up to about a 30 pip deficit. But X still has a
bit of work to do to bring the checkers on the 15 around. That combined
with the lowered takepoint makes me think it's a take.

I seem to recall that 2a many-a has a very narrow doubling window, and
since it's not clearly a pass it's probably not in the window yet.

I'll say ND/T and cash if he next sequence goes well.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: 2-away/6-away cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 2-away/6-away cube action
Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2023 08:30:10 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 22 Jul 2023 12:30 UTC

XGID=--abBBBBC-B-b-aB-bac-ba---:0:0:1:00:5:1:0:7:10

Score is X:5 O:1 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
| O X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 156 X-O: 5-1/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

This is a massive pass for money (see below) and I wasn't sure that
O could take even at this score. Does Woolsey's law (double if you're
not sure it's a take) apply? I doubled, and XG says it's a big take
and not a double. I underestimated how much of X's equity comes from
gammon wins. If I had had to guess over the board, I would probably
have guessed that X wins a little over 80% of the time and wins a
gammon a little over 15% of the time.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 78.42% (G:23.54% B:2.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.58% (G:2.58% B:0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.51% (G:33.08% B:2.84%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.49% (G:2.79% B:0.09%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.887
Double/Take: +0.809 (-0.077)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.113)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 40.6%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.874..+0.899)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+0.788..+0.830)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

-----
Money
-----

XGID=--abBBBBC-B-b-aB-bac-ba---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X X X | | X X X O |
| O X X X | | X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 156 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 77.22% (G:25.68% B:0.87%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.78% (G:2.61% B:0.10%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.25% (G:25.56% B:1.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.75% (G:2.73% B:0.10%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +1.022
Double/Take: +1.444 (+0.422)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.022)

Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 5.0%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+1.009..+1.036)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+1.426..+1.463)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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