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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Only two reasonable plays...

Only two reasonable plays...

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Only two reasonable plays...
Date: Sat, 22 Jul 2023 08:34:13 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 22 Jul 2023 12:34 UTC

....except for Stick, who sees only one reasonable play.

XGID=-aCBBBBA----b---bb-bcbBAa-:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X X O |
| O O | | O O O X |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
| O X | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

Re: Only two reasonable plays...

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Subject: Re: Only two reasonable plays...
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 22 Jul 2023 14:54 UTC

On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 1:34:15 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> ...except for Stick, who sees only one reasonable play.
>
> XGID=-aCBBBBA----b---bb-bcbBAa-:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O O O X X O |
> | O O | | O O O X |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X | +---+
> | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
> | O X | | X X X X X O | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 116 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 4, X own cube
> X to play 42

It's not clear to me what the "two reasonable plays" are.
I'm sure that 7/1* is one of the two candidates but I'm not sure
what the other is. 22/18 3/1* seems worthy of consideration (hence
reasonable) but I don't think Tim meant this.

I'm playing the pedestrian 7/1*, hoping that this is an anti-QF problem.
It is hoping for a lot and I'm sure that this makes us underdogs. We have escaping difficulties
and only one cover number. But the alternatives seem worse including the banana nut sundae.
Note that it is Saturday where I am posting from right now.
If I was supposed to do the banana split, then it would be a sundae and hence a Sunday post which it
isn't. So 22/18 3/1* is proven wrong by contradiction.

7/1*

Paul

Re: Only two reasonable plays...

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Subject: Re: Only two reasonable plays...
From: renan.m....@gmail.com (Renan Moritz)
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by: Renan Moritz - Sat, 22 Jul 2023 22:06 UTC

On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 11:54:39 AM UTC-3, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 1:34:15 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > ...except for Stick, who sees only one reasonable play.
> >
> > XGID=-aCBBBBA----b---bb-bcbBAa-:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O O | | O O O X X O |
> > | O O | | O O O X |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X | +---+
> > | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
> > | O X | | X X X X X O | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 116 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 4, X own cube
> > X to play 42
> It's not clear to me what the "two reasonable plays" are.
> I'm sure that 7/1* is one of the two candidates but I'm not sure
> what the other is. 22/18 3/1* seems worthy of consideration (hence
> reasonable) but I don't think Tim meant this.
>
> I'm playing the pedestrian 7/1*, hoping that this is an anti-QF problem.
> It is hoping for a lot and I'm sure that this makes us underdogs. We have escaping difficulties
> and only one cover number. But the alternatives seem worse including the banana nut sundae.
> Note that it is Saturday where I am posting from right now.
> If I was supposed to do the banana split, then it would be a sundae and hence a Sunday post which it
> isn't. So 22/18 3/1* is proven wrong by contradiction.
>
> 7/1*
>
> Paul

I hit, so I can close with "1" and escape with 4&5
I suppose the other "reasonable play" is 22/18, 7/5.
If the machine says that this is the correct play I could make some arguments for it - there is a blot in the opponent's board, the opponent's "6" are duplicated and so on - but no Quiz Factor in the world would make me play this over the board

Re: Only two reasonable plays...

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Subject: Re: Only two reasonable plays...
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Sun, 23 Jul 2023 09:39 UTC

On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 11:06:51 PM UTC+1, Renan Moritz wrote:
> On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 11:54:39 AM UTC-3, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > On Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 1:34:15 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > > ...except for Stick, who sees only one reasonable play.
> > >
> > > XGID=-aCBBBBA----b---bb-bcbBAa-:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
> > >
> > > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > | O O | | O O O X X O |
> > > | O O | | O O O X |
> > > | | | O |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | |BAR| |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | X | +---+
> > > | O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
> > > | O X | | X X X X X O | +---+
> > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > Pip count X: 116 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
> > > Cube: 4, X own cube
> > > X to play 42
> > It's not clear to me what the "two reasonable plays" are.
> > I'm sure that 7/1* is one of the two candidates but I'm not sure
> > what the other is. 22/18 3/1* seems worthy of consideration (hence
> > reasonable) but I don't think Tim meant this.
> >
> > I'm playing the pedestrian 7/1*, hoping that this is an anti-QF problem..
> > It is hoping for a lot and I'm sure that this makes us underdogs. We have escaping difficulties
> > and only one cover number. But the alternatives seem worse including the banana nut sundae.
> > Note that it is Saturday where I am posting from right now.
> > If I was supposed to do the banana split, then it would be a sundae and hence a Sunday post which it
> > isn't. So 22/18 3/1* is proven wrong by contradiction.
> >
> > 7/1*
> >
> > Paul
> I hit, so I can close with "1" and escape with 4&5
> I suppose the other "reasonable play" is 22/18, 7/5.
> If the machine says that this is the correct play I could make some arguments for it - there is a blot in the opponent's board, the opponent's "6" are duplicated and so on - but no Quiz Factor in the world would make me play this over the board

As I said, you could consider 22/18 3/1*

Tim can be a bit tricky.

Paul

Re: Only two reasonable plays...

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Only two reasonable plays...
Date: Sun, 23 Jul 2023 13:33:19 -0400
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by: ah....Clem - Sun, 23 Jul 2023 17:33 UTC

On 7/22/2023 8:34 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> ...except for Stick, who sees only one reasonable play.
>
> XGID=-aCBBBBA----b---bb-bcbBAa-:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> |          O O    |   | O O O X X O |
> |          O O    |   | O O O X       |
> |                  |   |    O             |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |BAR|                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |             X    | +---+
> | O                |   | X X X X X    | | 4 |
> | O              X |   | X X X X X O | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 116 O: 120 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 4, X own cube
> X to play 42

I get dinged a lot for failing to hit in similar positions. After
hitting loose on the ace, sixes are killed while 4s and 5s escape, so
there's plenty of chance to escape the runners later.

OTOH, running gives O a lot of chances to misplay her roll, so may it be
better practical play.

But I'll hit loose here and take my lumps in the rollout.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Only two reasonable plays...

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Only two reasonable plays...
Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2023 08:30:14 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 24 Jul 2023 12:30 UTC

XGID=-aCBBBBA----b---bb-bcbBAa-:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Like Renan, I understand the argument for 22/18 7/5, but even now,
I don't know that I would be able to bring myself to play it over
the board. As Variant 1 illustrates, it's only because X is
totally out of time on his side of the board that 7/1* is deemed
a blunder by XG.

Paul is right to say that 22/18 3/1* is a candidate, but I didn't
consider it, and XG thinks it's in quadruple-whopper territory.

1. Rollout¹ 22/18 7/5 eq:-0.059
Player: 41.48% (G:17.49% B:0.86%)
Opponent: 58.52% (G:18.21% B:0.83%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.066..-0.051) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/1* eq:-0.143 (-0.085)
Player: 38.29% (G:14.87% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 61.71% (G:18.27% B:0.80%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.154..-0.132) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-aBBCBBA----b---bb-bcbBAa-:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

1. Rollout¹ 7/1* eq:+0.007
Player: 42.73% (G:17.85% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 57.27% (G:16.16% B:0.65%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.002..+0.015) - [56.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/18 7/5 eq:+0.006 (-0.001)
Player: 43.32% (G:19.06% B:1.19%)
Opponent: 56.68% (G:17.22% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (0.000..+0.012) - [43.1%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-aCBBBBA----b---bb-ccbBA--:2:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O | | X X X X X | | 4 |
| O X | | X X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 116 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 7/1* eq:-0.330
Player: 33.01% (G:11.47% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 66.99% (G:19.63% B:0.90%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.340..-0.320) - [99.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/18 7/5 eq:-0.348 (-0.018)
Player: 33.07% (G:12.61% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 66.93% (G:23.38% B:1.34%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.356..-0.339) - [0.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Only two reasonable plays...

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Date: Thu, 21 Sep 2023 10:17:37 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: Re: Only two reasonable plays...
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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by: Stick Rice - Thu, 21 Sep 2023 17:17 UTC

Subject	Author
Only two reasonable plays...	Timothy Chow
Re: Only two reasonable plays...	peps...@gmail.com
Re: Only two reasonable plays...	Renan Moritz
Re: Only two reasonable plays...	peps...@gmail.com
Re: Only two reasonable plays...	ah....Clem
Rollout: Only two reasonable plays...	Timothy Chow
Re: Only two reasonable plays...	Stick Rice