https://youtu.be/F-xHT9yiDzc?t=2923

I can't believe Olsen's drop above.
Sure, it's a money drop. But with such a deficit,
and on a high cube, you've got to take a bit deep.

Four checkers removed is quite a few and we do have
an open point to aim at.

Paul

On 7/23/2023 9:22 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> https://youtu.be/F-xHT9yiDzc?t=2923
>
> I can't believe Olsen's drop above.
> Sure, it's a money drop. But with such a deficit,
> and on a high cube, you've got to take a bit deep.
>
> Four checkers removed is quite a few and we do have
> an open point to aim at.

It's three checkers not four, but XG agrees with you.

XGID=-FBaC--------a---b-bbbcb-A:1:-1:-1:00:1:6:0:11:10

Score is X:1 O:6 11 pt.(s) match.
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| O O O O O | | O O | +---+
| O O O O O | | O | | 2 |
| O | | | +---+
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| 6 | | |
| X | | |
| X X | | |
| X X X | | |
| X X O X | | |
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pip count X: 47 O: 93 X-O: 1-6/11
Cube: 2, O own cube
O on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 82.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 17.13% (G:1.11% B:0.01%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 83.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 16.77% (G:1.08% B:0.00%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.905
Redouble/Take: +0.870 (-0.036)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.095)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 27.3%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.901..+0.910)
Confidence Double: ± 0.007 (+0.863..+0.877)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

On Monday, July 24, 2023 at 12:47:22 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> On 7/23/2023 9:22 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > https://youtu.be/F-xHT9yiDzc?t=2923
> >
> > I can't believe Olsen's drop above.
> > Sure, it's a money drop. But with such a deficit,
> > and on a high cube, you've got to take a bit deep.
> >
> > Four checkers removed is quite a few and we do have
> > an open point to aim at.
> It's three checkers not four, but XG agrees with you.
>
> XGID=-FBaC--------a---b-bbbcb-A:1:-1:-1:00:1:6:0:11:10
>
> Score is X:1 O:6 11 pt.(s) match.
> +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
> | O O O O O | | O O | +---+
> | O O O O O | | O | | 2 |
> | O | | | +---+
> | | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | 6 | | |
> | X | | |
> | X X | | |
> | X X X | | |
> | X X O X | | |
> +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
> Pip count X: 47 O: 93 X-O: 1-6/11
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> O on roll, cube action
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No redouble
> Player Winning Chances: 82.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 17.13% (G:1.11% B:0.01%)
> Redouble/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 83.23% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 16.77% (G:1.08% B:0.00%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No redouble: +0.905
> Redouble/Take: +0.870 (-0.036)
> Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.095)
>
> Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
> Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 27.3%
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+0.901..+0.910)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.007 (+0.863..+0.877)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Thanks. I saw that I miscounted the checkers off immediately after I'd posted,
but it still looked like bad play.

I never thought it was a hold, though. I saw it as RD/T.
Fancy passing a no-double, at that rarefied level!!

The players are apparently friends and they chat constantly about the plays
during the match.
However, it didn't occur to either of them to question this cube action.

I think the players have very similar abilities and are both Giants or near-Giants so it
isn't one of these skill-diff things.

Of course, Jason may have thought "It might not be a double and it's an easy take but
he might wrongly drop."

Paul

On 7/24/2023 3:23 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> I think the players have very similar abilities and are both Giants or near-Giants so it
> isn't one of these skill-diff things.

Olsen did make the 2022 Giants list and the BMAB gives his
current PR as about 3.7 (on the high side for a Giant). Jason
Pack's PR is listed as about 5.0 and I don't think people would
call him a "near-Giant." But I think you're right that the skill
difference is not large enough to justify any major deviation from
what either player would play against an equal opponent.

---
Tim Chow

On Tuesday, July 25, 2023 at 5:08:46 AM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> On 7/24/2023 3:23 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > I think the players have very similar abilities and are both Giants or near-Giants so it
> > isn't one of these skill-diff things.
> Olsen did make the 2022 Giants list and the BMAB gives his
> current PR as about 3.7 (on the high side for a Giant). ...

This leads to an interesting (to me) ambiguity.
Who has the higher tennis ranking among Chris Eubanks and Jannik Sinner?

Paul

On Tuesday, July 25, 2023 at 8:47:40 AM UTC-4, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Tuesday, July 25, 2023 at 5:08:46 AM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > On 7/24/2023 3:23 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > I think the players have very similar abilities and are both Giants or near-Giants so it
> > > isn't one of these skill-diff things.
> > Olsen did make the 2022 Giants list and the BMAB gives his
> > current PR as about 3.7 (on the high side for a Giant). ...
>
> This leads to an interesting (to me) ambiguity.
> Who has the higher tennis ranking among Chris Eubanks and Jannik Sinner?
>
> Paul

Nobody would refer to Pack as a near Giant and 1.5PR is clearly enough under the right circumstances to adjust one's decisions.

As for Eubanks/Sinner, I don't get the interesting ambiguity. Sinner has the higher ranking I'd assume no matter how you mean it.

Stick

On July 23, 2023 at 7:22:52 AM UTC-6, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

> I can't believe Olsen's drop above.

Was this post supposed to say something
about the same Kit Foolsy, (the 8 feet tall
gamblegammon giant book peddler), who
had said that "there are 21 possible dice
rolls at every turn"..?

Did he have a math PHD like Tim also..??

In RGB, Tim's "21^7 < 2^32 < 21^8" "math"
will be as familiar as "e=mc2" for you, the
pack of sick dogs of gamblegammon and
will surely be Tim's epitaph... ;)

MK