XGID=--B-CCBaC-----------ccecB-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O X |
| | | O O O O X |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X O | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 115 O: 66 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

On 7/25/2023 8:58 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--B-CCBaC-----------ccecB-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |                  |   |    O  O  O  O  X |
>  |                  |   |    O  O  O  O  X |
>  |                  |   |    O  O  O  O    |
>  |                  |   |          O       |
>  |                  |   |          O       |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |             X    |   |    X  X          | +---+
>  |             X    |   | X  X  X     X    | | 2 |
>  |             X  O |   | X  X  X     X    | +---+
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 115  O: 66 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 63

If X leaves the ace, an avalanche of checkers will rain down on the
remaining checker. That leaves 8/2 for the six, after which slotting the
ace seems more productive than stacking the deuce.

8/2 4/1 seems the logical choice, so by QF it must be wrong. But I'll
play that anyway since I try not to do QF.

On Tuesday, July 25, 2023 at 1:58:37 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--B-CCBaC-----------ccecB-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O O O O X |
> | | | O O O O X |
> | | | O O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X | | X X | +---+
> | X | | X X X X | | 2 |
> | X O | | X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 115 O: 66 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 63

I'm Walting this one.
As soon as I've opined, I'll observe whether Ah..Clem
thinks my suggestion is as useful as a film recommendation
by Arnold Schwarzenegger.

I think we need to escape a back checker to try to challenge the checker on
our 7 point. The opponent will admittedly have a few pointing numbers but is
still an underdog to do so as this would require a roll with no 5 or 6.

So 24/18. If we go all the way to 15, we diversify for the opponent.
Their small rolls will point on us and their large rolls will move past us.
So definitely stop at 18. But how about the 3?
We don't want to make the ace point so don't slot it. 8/5 seems to preserve
the forward structure as much as we can.
24/18 8/5 is my play. Now I'll look at what the wiser man says.

Hmmm, he sees it differently and seems to see my play as an unusual QF play..
I thought my play was the normal way.

Autres temps, autres moeurs as Stick would say if he was still studying French.

Paul

On Tuesday, July 25, 2023 at 2:24:30 PM UTC-3, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Tuesday, July 25, 2023 at 1:58:37 PM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=--B-CCBaC-----------ccecB-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | | | O O O O X |
> > | | | O O O O X |
> > | | | O O O O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | X | | X X | +---+
> > | X | | X X X X | | 2 |
> > | X O | | X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 115 O: 66 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 2, X own cube
> > X to play 63
> I'm Walting this one.
> As soon as I've opined, I'll observe whether Ah..Clem
> thinks my suggestion is as useful as a film recommendation
> by Arnold Schwarzenegger.
>
> I think we need to escape a back checker to try to challenge the checker on
> our 7 point. The opponent will admittedly have a few pointing numbers but is
> still an underdog to do so as this would require a roll with no 5 or 6.
>
> So 24/18. If we go all the way to 15, we diversify for the opponent.
> Their small rolls will point on us and their large rolls will move past us.
> So definitely stop at 18. But how about the 3?
> We don't want to make the ace point so don't slot it. 8/5 seems to preserve
> the forward structure as much as we can.
> 24/18 8/5 is my play. Now I'll look at what the wiser man says.
>
> Hmmm, he sees it differently and seems to see my play as an unusual QF play.
> I thought my play was the normal way.
>
> Autres temps, autres moeurs as Stick would say if he was still studying French.
>
> Paul

Quiz Factor is an annoying thing that makes me believe running from the 24 is the correct choice...
But I just cannot believe it. My choice: 24/18, 3/1

[ From this position on for the next 10 positions I will be checking XG results against GNU for no other reason than my curiosity to do so]

On 7/25/2023 1:59 PM, Renan Moritz wrote:

>
> [ From this position on for the next 10 positions I will be checking XG results against GNU for no other reason than my curiosity to do so]

The usual convention is for the user who initiates the thread to post a
rollout in 24 to 48 hours. Of course, there's nothing stopping anyone
from consulting a bot prior to that, or even before posting their opinion.

My approach is to do my own work by Walting (i.e. not looking at other
responses prior to posting). Sometimes I peek at XGR++ prior to the
"answer" being posted. YMMV.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

XGID=--B-CCBaC-----------ccecB-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O X |
| | | O O O O X |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X O | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 115 O: 66 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

Congratulations to Paul, who found the bot play. X's best chances
of winning lie in catching O's straggler. But he has to weigh that
against the risk of getting attacked. According to XG, splitting
is hugely correct here, despite the increased risk of losing a
gammon.

In the variant, I have given O a five-point board. According to XG,
in the variant, splitting is still the right idea at DMP, but it
loses too many gammons for money.

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 8/5 eq:-0.578
Player: 23.14% (G:2.12% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 76.86% (G:14.73% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.582..-0.573) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 5/2 eq:-0.637 (-0.059)
Player: 21.88% (G:1.74% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 78.12% (G:17.64% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.641..-0.632) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/18 4/1 eq:-0.652 (-0.075)
Player: 21.53% (G:2.11% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 78.47% (G:18.49% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (-0.657..-0.648) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 24/15 eq:-0.705 (-0.127)
Player: 18.18% (G:0.90% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 81.82% (G:15.24% B:0.19%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.709..-0.701) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/2 4/1 eq:-0.779 (-0.202)
Player: 13.72% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 86.28% (G:10.65% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.783..-0.776) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--B-CCBaC----------bccccB-:1:1:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| X O | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 115 O: 72 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 8/2 4/1 eq:-0.882
Player: 10.82% (G:0.27% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 89.18% (G:13.70% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.886..-0.878) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2 5/2 eq:-0.902 (-0.020)
Player: 9.80% (G:0.27% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 90.20% (G:13.45% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.003 (-0.905..-0.899) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/3 eq:-0.929 (-0.047)
Player: 9.02% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 90.98% (G:14.08% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.933..-0.926) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/2 eq:-0.941 (-0.059)
Player: 11.63% (G:0.21% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 88.37% (G:20.76% B:1.37%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-0.945..-0.937) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 24/18 8/5 eq:-1.008 (-0.125)
Player: 13.17% (G:1.89% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 86.83% (G:33.92% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.004 (-1.012..-1.003) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

------------
Variant, DMP
------------

XGID=--B-CCBaC----------bccccB-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:1:10

Score is X:0 O:0 1 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O O O O X |
| | | O O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 115 O: 72 X-O: 0-0/1
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 24/18 8/5 eq:-0.760
Player: 12.00% (G:1.27% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 88.00% (G:23.04% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.763..-0.758) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/18 5/2 eq:-0.780 (-0.020)
Player: 10.99% (G:0.90% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 89.01% (G:26.71% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.782..-0.778) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/18 4/1 eq:-0.785 (-0.025)
Player: 10.77% (G:1.25% B:0.04%)
Opponent: 89.23% (G:28.55% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.787..-0.782) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/2 4/1 eq:-0.786 (-0.026)
Player: 10.70% (G:0.21% B:0.02%)
Opponent: 89.30% (G:16.19% B:1.42%)
Confidence: ±0.002 (-0.788..-0.784) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow