https://youtu.be/agd3HKZLaz4?t=2047

I was enjoying the match up to that point but I just can't stomach
Mario Kuehl's drop. It's awful! There are 14 misses which immediately lose.
Yes, Mochy has gammons but this drop is ridiculous.

I find these youtube videos can be frustrating to watch.
Is there some law that forbids non-Giants from competent play?

Paul

On Tuesday, July 25, 2023 at 8:03:37 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> https://youtu.be/agd3HKZLaz4?t=2047
>
> I was enjoying the match up to that point but I just can't stomach
> Mario Kuehl's drop. It's awful! There are 14 misses which immediately lose.
> Yes, Mochy has gammons but this drop is ridiculous.
>
> I find these youtube videos can be frustrating to watch.
> Is there some law that forbids non-Giants from competent play?
>
> Paul
Hmmm, I'm having second thoughts now.
Ignoring recubes, if Mario takes the score will be either 8-2 or 10-0.
As a first approximation, assume these scores just win.
I can see that you might pass to get to 13A 11A which is very close.

I'm a bit sceptical of the pass but I don't think it's as terrible a play as a money
pass. And it could even be correct. Tim (and some others) would know.

Paul

On 7/25/2023 3:09 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Tuesday, July 25, 2023 at 8:03:37 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
>> https://youtu.be/agd3HKZLaz4?t=2047
>>
>> I was enjoying the match up to that point but I just can't stomach
>> Mario Kuehl's drop. It's awful! There are 14 misses which immediately lose.
>> Yes, Mochy has gammons but this drop is ridiculous.
>>
>> I find these youtube videos can be frustrating to watch.
>> Is there some law that forbids non-Giants from competent play?
>>
>> Paul
> Hmmm, I'm having second thoughts now.
> Ignoring recubes, if Mario takes the score will be either 8-2 or 10-0.
> As a first approximation, assume these scores just win.
> I can see that you might pass to get to 13A 11A which is very close.
>
> I'm a bit sceptical of the pass but I don't think it's as terrible a play as a money
> pass. And it could even be correct. Tim (and some others) would know.

I would take here, but it's not a pleasant take at the match score.
As you say, there are some gammons, which win the match, but the gammon
value is reduced.

---
Tim Chow

On 7/25/2023 8:55 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> On 7/25/2023 3:09 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
>> On Tuesday, July 25, 2023 at 8:03:37 PM UTC+1, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
>>> https://youtu.be/agd3HKZLaz4?t=2047

> I would take here, but it's not a pleasant take at the match score.
> As you say, there are some gammons, which win the match, but the gammon
> value is reduced.

According to XG, which I consulted only after making the above post,
it's a big take. The skill difference makes it an even bigger take,
I would say.

XGID=-BBBBBB---A------a-accBdc-:2:1:1:00:0:2:0:11:10

Score is X:0 O:2 11 pt.(s) match.
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
| O O X O O O | | O |
| O O X O O | | |
| O O O O | | |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X X X X X X | | | | 4 |
| X X X X X X | | X | +---+
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 52 X-O: 0-2/11
Cube: 4, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 63.58% (G:21.76% B:0.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.42% (G:1.07% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.27% (G:20.77% B:0.76%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.73% (G:1.63% B:0.01%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.552 (-0.297)
Redouble/Take: +0.849
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.151)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.550..+0.555)
Confidence Double: ± 0.003 (+0.846..+0.851)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

I was curious about the earlier recube to 4. Even though it's
an 11-point match, a player who leads by 2 points should generally
be cautious about redoubling to 4. According to the rollout below,
the redouble to 4 was a mistake, but in my opinion, if the skill
difference is taken into account, the double is justifiable. It's
a volatile, gammonish position, which is exactly the sort of game
in which the weaker player wants to jack up the cube value.

XGID=---B--D-Cbb-dB--B--c-b-b-B:1:-1:-1:00:0:2:0:11:10

Score is X:0 O:2 11 pt.(s) match.
+-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
| O O O | | X X | +---+
| O O O | | X X | | 2 |
| O | | | +---+
| | X | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | O |
| X | | X O |
| X X | | X O O O |
| X X | | X O O O |
+24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
Pip count X: 162 O: 144 X-O: 0-2/11
Cube: 2, O own cube
O on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 66.40% (G:30.77% B:1.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.60% (G:8.34% B:0.42%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.33% (G:31.25% B:1.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.67% (G:8.60% B:0.89%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.728
Redouble/Take: +0.587 (-0.141)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.272)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 34.1%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.716..+0.739)
Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.568..+0.606)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

On Wednesday, July 26, 2023 at 2:20:47 AM UTC+1, Timothy Chow wrote:
> I was curious about the earlier recube to 4. Even though it's
> an 11-point match, a player who leads by 2 points should generally
> be cautious about redoubling to 4. According to the rollout below,
> the redouble to 4 was a mistake, but in my opinion, if the skill
> difference is taken into account, the double is justifiable. It's
> a volatile, gammonish position, which is exactly the sort of game
> in which the weaker player wants to jack up the cube value.
>
> XGID=---B--D-Cbb-dB--B--c-b-b-B:1:-1:-1:00:0:2:0:11:10
> Score is X:0 O:2 11 pt.(s) match.
> +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
> | O O O | | X X | +---+
> | O O O | | X X | | 2 |
> | O | | | +---+
> | | X | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | X O |
> | X X | | X O O O |
> | X X | | X O O O |
> +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
> Pip count X: 162 O: 144 X-O: 0-2/11
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> O on roll, cube action
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No redouble
> Player Winning Chances: 66.40% (G:30.77% B:1.33%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 33.60% (G:8.34% B:0.42%)
> Redouble/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 66.33% (G:31.25% B:1.92%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 33.67% (G:8.60% B:0.89%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No redouble: +0.728
> Redouble/Take: +0.587 (-0.141)
> Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.272)
>
> Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
> Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 34.1%
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.716..+0.739)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.568..+0.606)
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

I'm sorry, Tim but it's a 15 point match, not an 11 point match.
I think this makes the drop I initially complained about even worse.

Paul

On 7/26/2023 3:33 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> I'm sorry, Tim but it's a 15 point match, not an 11 point match.
> I think this makes the drop I initially complained about even worse.

Oh, I didn't even notice until just now that the match score is
partially obscured in the video! I just glanced at it and assumed
11 points. But I agree, it's got to be worse for a 15-point match.

---
Tim Chow

On Tuesday, July 25, 2023 at 9:20:47 PM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> I was curious about the earlier recube to 4. Even though it's
> an 11-point match, a player who leads by 2 points should generally
> be cautious about redoubling to 4. According to the rollout below,
> the redouble to 4 was a mistake, but in my opinion, if the skill
> difference is taken into account, the double is justifiable. It's
> a volatile, gammonish position, which is exactly the sort of game
> in which the weaker player wants to jack up the cube value.
>
> XGID=---B--D-Cbb-dB--B--c-b-b-B:1:-1:-1:00:0:2:0:11:10
> Score is X:0 O:2 11 pt.(s) match.
> +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+
> | O O O | | X X | +---+
> | O O O | | X X | | 2 |
> | O | | | +---+
> | | X | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | X O |
> | X X | | X O O O |
> | X X | | X O O O |
> +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+
> Pip count X: 162 O: 144 X-O: 0-2/11
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> O on roll, cube action
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No redouble
> Player Winning Chances: 66.40% (G:30.77% B:1.33%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 33.60% (G:8.34% B:0.42%)
> Redouble/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 66.33% (G:31.25% B:1.92%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 33.67% (G:8.60% B:0.89%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No redouble: +0.728
> Redouble/Take: +0.587 (-0.141)
> Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.272)
>
> Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
> Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 34.1%
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.716..+0.739)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.019 (+0.568..+0.606)
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I don't know who Mario is but I think it's safe enough to say his PR is at least 3 PR worse than Mochy. Given that, you can use the jacobs100 table in GNU and will see how wildly this changes what the proper cube actions should be.

Stick