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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Containment play

SubjectAuthor
* Containment playTimothy Chow
+- Re: Containment playah....Clem
`- Rollout: Containment playTimothy Chow

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Containment play

<u9lt34$lonl$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Containment play
Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2023 09:07:48 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 24 Jul 2023 13:07 UTC

XGID=--aABBBBB---dB---B-cbb-c--:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O | +---+
| X X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

Re: Containment play

<u9mbtk$nog6$2@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Containment play
Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2023 13:20:53 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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In-Reply-To: <u9lt34$lonl$1@dont-email.me>
 by: ah....Clem - Mon, 24 Jul 2023 17:20 UTC

On 7/24/2023 9:07 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--aABBBBB---dB---B-cbb-c--:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           X    |   | O  O  O     O    | +---+
>  | X           X    |   | O  O  O     O    | | 2 |
>  |                  |   | O           O    | +---+
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  | O                |   |                  |
>  | O                |   |                  |
>  | O           X  X |   | X  X  X          |
>  | O           X  X |   | X  X  X  X  O    |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 123  O: 117 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 42

Simply covering up by playing off the seven point is safe, but with the
race deficit it looks weak.

13/7 dupes aces and works really well the other 25 shakes so I'll play that.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Containment play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Containment play
Date: Wed, 26 Jul 2023 08:52:35 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 26 Jul 2023 12:52 UTC

XGID=--aABBBBB---dB---B-cbb-c--:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O | +---+
| X X | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

Given O's strong board, I was leery of leaving a direct shot, but
a five-prime with the opponent not at the edge is a huge asset.
We have an advantage, but it's not so big that we need to play
safe. Even if O had a stronger board, XG would still leave the 3pt
slotted (see variant).

As for 13/11 13/9 versus 13/7, it's definitely better to give
yourself two ways to make a six-prime (either the front or the
back).

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/9 eq:+0.505
Player: 76.41% (G:16.02% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 23.59% (G:11.00% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.497..+0.514) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.366 (-0.140)
Player: 71.39% (G:15.56% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 28.61% (G:11.62% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.358..+0.374) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/3 eq:+0.349 (-0.156)
Player: 68.17% (G:16.59% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 31.83% (G:7.54% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.342..+0.357) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--aABBBBB---dB---Bbbbbb---:1:-1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O | +---+
| X X O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 125 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 42

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/9 eq:+0.300
Player: 69.51% (G:14.50% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 30.49% (G:12.77% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.287..+0.313) - [99.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/5 7/3 eq:+0.277 (-0.023)
Player: 66.06% (G:14.80% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 33.94% (G:8.15% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.269..+0.286) - [0.2%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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