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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Scrambling home

SubjectAuthor
* Scrambling homeTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Scrambling homeTimothy Chow

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Scrambling home

<ua312l$2k9n6$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=12565&group=rec.games.backgammon#12565

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Scrambling home
Date: Sat, 29 Jul 2023 08:35:32 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 29 Jul 2023 12:35 UTC

XGID=-AbBaEB-B-B-a-----accbbA--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O X | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 103 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Scrambling home

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Scrambling home
Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2023 00:35:47 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 31 Jul 2023 04:35 UTC

XGID=-AbBaEB-B-B-a-----accbbA--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O X | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 103 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

Typically, the right idea in this type of position is to run the last
checker as far as it will go, since that will make safetying next turn
easier (assuming the checker is not hit, of course). But here, XG
strongly favors 23/17 5/3. Part of the reason is that 23/15 gives O
16 shots and 23/17 5/3 gives O 15 shots; in the variant, it's the same
number of shots either way and the decision is much closer. It's also
probably because playing 5/3 allows X to cover his 1pt blot with a 2.
Still, I'm surprised at how big an equity difference XG thinks there is
between 23/17 5/3 and 23/15.

1. Rollout¹ 23/17 5/3 eq:+0.050
Player: 58.13% (G:13.65% B:0.48%)
Opponent: 41.87% (G:10.21% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.043..+0.058) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/15 eq:-0.052 (-0.102)
Player: 55.55% (G:12.61% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 44.45% (G:12.33% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.060..-0.044) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-AbBaEB-B-Ba------accbbA--:1:-1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O X | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X X O |
| O X X | | X X O X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 103 O: 135 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 23/17 5/3 eq:-0.063
Player: 54.05% (G:14.79% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 45.95% (G:12.23% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.072..-0.055) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/15 eq:-0.089 (-0.026)
Player: 54.01% (G:12.00% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 45.99% (G:12.49% B:0.48%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.098..-0.080) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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