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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 3pt or 8pt?

SubjectAuthor
* 3pt or 8pt?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: 3pt or 8pt?Timothy Chow

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3pt or 8pt?

<uait1v$19jbj$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 3pt or 8pt?
Date: Fri, 4 Aug 2023 09:05:04 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 4 Aug 2023 13:05 UTC

XGID=--a--BECA---cBb--bBe-b----:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O |
| X O O X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 3pt or 8pt?

<uao76t$29apg$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 3pt or 8pt?
Date: Sun, 6 Aug 2023 09:29:01 -0400
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In-Reply-To: <uait1v$19jbj$2@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 6 Aug 2023 13:29 UTC

XGID=--a--BECA---cBb--bBe-b----:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O |
| X O O X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

The "3pt or 8pt" decision has some similarities with the "4pt or 7pt"
decision. Here, the 8pt is six pips away from O's straggler, and so
is a useful blocking point. Making the 3pt is better for attacking,
and it also unstacks the heavy 6pt. Nevertheless, XG says that
making the 3pt is a whopper with cheese. In part this is because
13/10 13/8 gives X three builders for making his 4pt, which would
give him a solid five-prime. In the variant, I have stacked another
checker on X's 6pt and you can see the effect on the rollout.

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/8 eq:+0.607
Player: 63.87% (G:18.36% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 36.13% (G:6.08% B:0.24%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.594..+0.621) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/3 eq:+0.496 (-0.112)
Player: 61.07% (G:18.28% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 38.93% (G:8.90% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.482..+0.509) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/3 6/3 eq:+0.461 (-0.146)
Player: 61.18% (G:15.99% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 38.82% (G:5.48% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.450..+0.472) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--a--BFBA---cBb--bBe-b----:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O X | | O O |
| X O O X | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 130 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 8/3 6/3 eq:+0.432
Player: 60.42% (G:16.72% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 39.58% (G:6.07% B:0.25%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.426..+0.439) - [76.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/8 eq:+0.429 (-0.003)
Player: 60.41% (G:16.02% B:0.31%)
Opponent: 39.59% (G:6.79% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.424..+0.435) - [23.7%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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