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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Late-game 64 to play

SubjectAuthor
* Late-game 64 to playTimothy Chow
+* Rollout: Late-game 64 to playTimothy Chow
|`- Re: Rollout: Late-game 64 to playStick Rice
`- Re: Late-game 64 to playah....Clem

1
Late-game 64 to play

<uc4vga$2u3v1$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Late-game 64 to play
Date: Wed, 23 Aug 2023 08:53:29 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 23 Aug 2023 12:53 UTC

XGID=--BC-CCbB-B----------accf-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X X O | | X X X X |
| X X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 82 O: 61 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Late-game 64 to play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Late-game 64 to play
Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2023 08:35:07 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 25 Aug 2023 12:35 UTC

XGID=--BC-CCbB-B----------accf-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| X X O | | X X X X |
| X X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 82 O: 61 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

XG's play of 10/4 8/4, volunteering a double shot, is startling at first
glance. But the point is that if it turns into a straight race (let's
say O rolls 54 next) then X is only about 50/50 to win, so he'd like to
hit a shot if he can. 10/4 8/4 makes a five-point board, and if O hits
(which she will if she can, except with a roll of 21), then X will
usually get a direct shot. And even if O rolls big and doesn't hit,
10/4 8/4 is a more efficient way to bear in for the race than 8/4 8/2.

1. Rollout¹ 10/4 8/4 eq:+0.243
Player: 54.74% (G:9.58% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 45.26% (G:0.35% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.233..+0.252) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/2 eq:+0.165 (-0.078)
Player: 56.01% (G:2.05% B:0.05%)
Opponent: 43.99% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.157..+0.174) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/4 5/1 eq:+0.137 (-0.106)
Player: 53.31% (G:5.47% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 46.69% (G:0.60% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.128..+0.145) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Late-game 64 to play

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Late-game 64 to play
Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2023 21:15:50 -0400
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 by: ah....Clem - Thu, 31 Aug 2023 01:15 UTC

On 8/23/2023 8:53 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--BC-CCbB-B----------accf-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |                  |   |       O  O  O  O |
>  |                  |   |          O  O  O |
>  |                  |   |          O  O  O |
>  |                  |   |                O |
>  |                  |   |                6 |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   | X  X     X       |
>  |       X     X  O |   | X  X     X  X    |
>  |       X     X  O |   | X  X     X  X    |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 82  O: 61 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64

Normally, a 20 pip deficit would imply maintaining contact, but with the
gain of 10 pips this roll, and dinging O for all those checkers on the
ace and deuce and open five and six points the race is almost even. So
I'll just clear the ten point and hope to roll well.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: Rollout: Late-game 64 to play

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Late-game 64 to play
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Wed, 27 Sep 2023 14:39 UTC

On Friday, August 25, 2023 at 8:35:11 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--BC-CCbB-B----------accf-:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O O O O |
> | | | O O O |
> | | | O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | 6 |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X X |
> | X X O | | X X X X |
> | X X O | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 82 O: 61 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> XG's play of 10/4 8/4, volunteering a double shot, is startling at first
> glance. But the point is that if it turns into a straight race (let's
> say O rolls 54 next) then X is only about 50/50 to win, so he'd like to
> hit a shot if he can. 10/4 8/4 makes a five-point board, and if O hits
> (which she will if she can, except with a roll of 21), then X will
> usually get a direct shot. And even if O rolls big and doesn't hit,
> 10/4 8/4 is a more efficient way to bear in for the race than 8/4 8/2.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 10/4 8/4 eq:+0.243
> Player: 54.74% (G:9.58% B:0.43%)
> Opponent: 45.26% (G:0.35% B:0.00%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.233..+0.252) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/4 8/2 eq:+0.165 (-0.078)
> Player: 56.01% (G:2.05% B:0.05%)
> Opponent: 43.99% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.157..+0.174) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 10/4 5/1 eq:+0.137 (-0.106)
> Player: 53.31% (G:5.47% B:0.17%)
> Opponent: 46.69% (G:0.60% B:0.00%)
> Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.128..+0.145) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

It should be noted just how awful the opp's position is when they aren't able to run both checkers freely or hit and pick up the inner board blot. All of those sequences the opponent will be facing a monster cube come our time to shake.

Stick

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